- Retail Sales increased the most in TWO years in January, driven by food services and dining, motor vehicles and people spending in general.
- For inflation, The CPI print came in kind of hot with core services and goods continuing to rise, mostly driven by shelter costs.
- The labor market is still strong, with people looking for cars and homes again.
- The worry now is that there is a new normal of inflation, that it will just hang out around 4-5%.
- The economy is still moving and grooving, but dancing to the wrong song.
- The market believes that the Fed will continue its hiking journey, but financial conditions have loosened.
- People are still spending money on vacations, despite vacation inflation.
- People are so sick of Things, they don’t care anymore, a phenomena known as the yoloconomy.
- The market wants to keep dancing, but the Fed is moving towards them quickly, slowly wagging their finger in the no-no motion.
- The Fed rate hikes have not moved through the economy yet, due to the design of the 30Y fixed-rate mortgage.
- People are spending more money because of credit card debt and continued dip into savings.
- People are exhausted and want to consume passively.
- The economy is booming despite the Fed’s pressure because people are prioritizing profit over people.
Published February 16, 2023
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