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The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference [John Tierney, The Free Press]

By William McClain
In [The Free Press]
February 27, 2023
425 views
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  • Cashiers wear protective masks in a grocery store in New York City on April 2, 2020. This is an example of the widespread adoption of masks during the pandemic.
  • The most rigorous and extensive review of the scientific literature concludes that neither surgical masks nor N95 masks have been shown to make a difference in reducing the spread of Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses. This is the most authoritative estimate of the value provided by wearing masks during the pandemic.
  • Before the pandemic, clinical trials repeatedly showed little or no benefit from wearing masks in preventing the spread of respiratory illnesses like flu and colds. This is why the World Health Organization, the CDC, and other national public health agencies did not recommend masking the public before the pandemic.
  • The gold standard for medical evidence is the randomized clinical trial, and the gold standard for analyzing this evidence is Cochrane. Cochrane is the world’s largest and most respected organization for evaluating health interventions.
  • It has published a new Cochrane review of the literature on masks, including trials during the Covid-19 pandemic in hospitals and in community settings. This review concludes that wearing any kind of face covering “probably makes little or no difference” in reducing the spread of respiratory illness.
  • Masks cause social, psychological, and medical problems, including a constellation of maladies called “Mask-Induced Exhaustion Syndrome.” This is a potential downside to wearing masks that is often overlooked.
  • Public health officials continue recommending or mandating masks without good evidence of their effectiveness or any pretense of cost-benefit analysis. This is in violation of the first-do-no-harm principle.
  • The CDC’s director, Rochelle Walensky, remains determined to ignore the best research on masks. This is despite the lack of evidence that masks make any difference.
  • The CDC repeatedly cherry-picked observational data, crediting masks for a short-term reduction in Covid rates in some localities while ignoring contrary data from more systematic analyses. This is an example of the CDC’s disregard for the best available evidence.
  • Can anything persuade the maskaholics in the public health establishment and the public to give up their obsession? This is an important question that needs to be answered in order to move forward.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read John Tierney’s original post The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference

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Erdoğan Is Getting Desperate [Enes Kanter Freedom, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 27, 2023
345 views
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  • Turkey has targeted me for years due to my denouncement of its strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which has resulted in my passport being revoked, 12 lawsuits against me, and my name being put on Interpol’s “Red Notice” list.
  • The earthquake that struck Turkey earlier this month represents one of the biggest disasters the country has ever faced, and the world has generously offered much-needed resources to help us recover.
  • Erdoğan has taken full control of the legislature and judiciary after a coup failed to oust him in 2016, dismissing thousands of judges who could have resisted his orders.
  • Erdoğan has committed human-rights violations which have been carried out under the pretext of anti-terror measures, resulting in Turkey being ranked “not free” by Freedom House and 117th out of 139 countries in the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index.
  • Erdoğan has used his leverage with the West to further his hunt for dissidents, such as attempting to compel Sweden and Finland to extradite up to 130 of his critics in exchange for supporting their NATO-membership bids.
  • Erdoğan is getting desperate and even more dangerous as the presidential elections in Turkey are only a few months away, and he has failed to stem a years-long economic crisis. He will come under increasing pressure to further consolidate his power and shore up support however he can.
  • The West must make clear that Erdoğan will be shunned from the world stage if he continues down this path of threatening the lives of opposition members in sovereign states.

Published February 26, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Enes Kanter Freedom’s original post Erdoğan Is Getting Desperate

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The Secrets in Our Skies [Adam Popescu, The Free Press]

By William McClain
In [The Free Press]
February 27, 2023
269 views
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  • First things first—what are the odds China is behind all this? – High. China is known for sending balloons into near space, and the U.S. Air Force chose not to fire a missile at any of the 366 unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs) that were detected in 2022. The first UAP, which was shot down off the coast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, was confirmed to be a Chinese spy balloon.
  • Is there any chance the three mystery crafts were not spying on America? – No. China has significant influence over any private enterprise, and the Chinese government is not a democracy. The balloons were likely dispatched by a Chinese company that is an extension of the Chinese military intelligence regime.
  • So what, exactly, were the balloons looking for? – The balloons were likely looking to take lateral images of ground installations, gauge weather patterns, and enhance communications. They can also stay airborne for years at a time, broadcasting data back home in real time.
  • So why didn’t the president just tell us the whole, unvarnished truth? – The guiding philosophy in Washington is to avoid a direct conflict with China, and the federal government’s silence on this story reflects a broader reticence to communicate plainly and candidly about national security, American airspace, or UAPs. The Chinese likely wanted to see what the U.S. response would be.
  • What does China likely make of our response to its flying objects? – China likely sees this as a way to erode our unity, and the balloons have cast a spotlight on a gaping hole in our national discourse. There was predictable partisan sniping and hysteria, and China likely views this as further confirmation of our national decline.

Published February 25, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Adam Popescu’s original post The Secrets in Our Skies

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What Psychology Can Teach Us About George Santos [Maria Konnikova, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 27, 2023
311 views
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  • George Santos, the freshman Republican representative from Long Island, lied on his résumé – his educational history was made up, he had no attendance at Horace Mann, Baruch, or NYU, and he had no college degree. He also lied about working for Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.
  • The term “con artist” is used to describe someone who misrepresents something or lies – but for con artists, lying is a way of being, and it reaches past exaggeration or misrepresentation into a prevailing disconnect from reality.
  • Con artists tend to exhibit some combination of the so-called dark triad of personality traits – psychopathy, narcissism, and Machiavellianism. Narcissism is the trait that exemplifies the psychology of the con, and explains the hubris behind a pyramid of lies as high as Santos’s.
  • Narcissism breeds a self-reinforcing cycle – the more a person misrepresents themselves and cons others for their own gain, the more entitled they feel to keep going.
  • Con artists know how to pick the right victims and the right venue – and then how to sell their story most effectively. Santos chose well – politics is an area where shades of gray are the norm, and he ran uncontested in a district with little competition.
  • We tend to trust people who appear and act similarly to us – Santos claimed to be Jewish when he ran against Jewish opponents, and used emotion to get people to put their trust in him.

Published February 25, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Maria Konnikova’s original post What Psychology Can Teach Us About George Santos

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Democracy Has a Customer-Service Problem [Brian Klaas, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 27, 2023
260 views
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  • Input Legitimacy vs. Output Legitimacy: Democracy requires two forms of legitimacy to survive: input legitimacy (processes and procedures) and output legitimacy (government effectiveness).
  • Output Legitimacy is Falling: Only 41% of Americans are satisfied that democracy is working well, and only 39% have faith in the U.S. government to solve domestic problems.
  • Politics of Resentment: People are less likely to rally to defend democracy if they believe the system is failing them, which can lead to a “politics of resentment”.
  • Distant Power Centers: Many people feel that the sources of power—both public and private—are far away and unresponsive, and that when something goes wrong, they’re on their own.
  • Compensate for Mistakes: Companies that engage in predatory billing should face serious fines, and corporations that steal people’s time through their own mistakes should be forced to compensate them.
  • Make it Easier to Cancel Services: Regulators should ensure that it is as easy to cancel a service as it is to sign up for it.

Published February 25, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Brian Klaas’s original post Democracy Has a Customer-Service Problem

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MAGA Is the Mullet of Politics [David A. Graham, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 27, 2023
230 views
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  • National Attention is Turning to East Palestine Train Derailment – The train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio has become a proxy battle for existing political divides and a lens to reveal the failings of both the Democratic and Trump-era Republican parties.
  • Trump, Regan, and Buttigieg Visit East Palestine – In the past 10 days, EPA Administrator Michael Regan, former President Donald Trump, and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg have all visited the town.
  • East Palestine as a Symbol of White Working-Class Abandonment – Trump-era Republicans, like Ohio’s newly elected senator, J. D. Vance, have embraced East Palestine as an example of how the Democratic Party has abandoned white working-class areas of the industrial Midwest.
  • Late Response from Media and Democratic Establishment – Some factions of conservative media have accused the mainstream press and Democratic establishment of ignoring the story, though in fact Fox News was just as late as its competitors.
  • No Initial Fatalities, Uncertain Environmental Effects – Unlike some other recent rail catastrophes, no one died in the initial derailment and fire. The longer-term environmental effects are still uncertain.
  • MAGA Republicans Offer Wrong Solutions – The MAGA Republicans have offered little hope to the crisis with wrong solutions and policy ideas.
  • Biden’s Stimulus Won’t Make a Dent – Biden’s enormous stimulus plans may reshape the American economy but are unlikely to make much of a dent in small, depressed towns like East Palestine.
  • Promise of Recovery, But Thriving is Remote – Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw has promised to help East Palestine recover and thrive, but this may be a promise he can’t keep.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read David A. Graham’s original post MAGA Is the Mullet of Politics

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Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By William McClain
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
February 27, 2023
298 views
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  • Section 230 is going before the Supreme Court: Are content recommendations covered like moderation? A loss for Google would be an opportunity for Congress to protect essential rights.
  • Section 230 Genesis: The law gives internet platforms legal immunity for almost all third-party content hosted on their sites.
  • Section 230 Implementation: There is widespread support in Congress for overhauling Section 230, but legislative efforts to do so have stalled amid partisan disagreements.
  • Gonzalez v. Google: The case was brought by the family of an American college student alleging that YouTube failed to take down some ISIS terrorist videos and even recommended them to users.
  • The Position on the Stack Matters for Moderation: At the top of the stack are the service providers that people publish to directly, with absolute discretion in their moderation policies, while ISPs are about access with no right to be heard.
  • Algorithmic Timelines and Recommendation Engines: The question in Gonzalez v. Google is whether platforms are liable for their recommendations. A win for Gonzalez would be a disaster for the way current platforms work.
  • Congressional Action: If Gonzalez wins the case, there should be no liability for posting a link and infrastructure companies should be given immunity to be content neutral.
  • The First Amendment and U.S. Speech Controls: Much of the discussion around moderation of content forgets that the First Amendment explicitly denies Congress any role in determining what is moderated and what is not.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants

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Permission-Slip Culture Is Hurting America [Jerusalem Demsas, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 27, 2023
253 views
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  • Occupational licensing rules are pervasive and often arbitrary. It takes different amounts of money and time to become certified in different states for the same profession, and the benefits of these rules are unsubstantiated. This has a direct cost for workers, in terms of both fees and foregone wages, and an indirect cost for consumers, in the form of higher prices and reduced mobility.
  • Trade associations play a key role in implementing and maintaining these rules. Professional associations can shape requirements around benefits for their members rather than the public interest, and they have an incentive to maintain high barriers to entry in order to reduce competition and raise wages for their members.
  • Licensing rules are often ineffective in achieving their stated goals. Research shows that licensing rules don’t necessarily increase quality or public health and safety, and that they may reduce employment and exacerbate labor shortages in certain industries.
  • Reforming occupational licensing is a start, but it is not enough. Rethinking occupational licensing is part of the larger project of building effective government and ensuring protection against health and safety risks. This requires more than deregulation, such as clear regulations and effective enforcement.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Jerusalem Demsas’s original post Permission-Slip Culture Is Hurting America

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Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By William McClain
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
February 24, 2023
213 views
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  • For Creators:
    • Go to Manifold’s impact market site, Manifund, who have kindly agreed to handle the technology side of this.
    • Explain your project and how much funding you’re asking for ($20,000 or less, and preferably $5,000 or less).
    • Choose to keep your shares or sell them to investors. Selling may have tax implications.
    • Talk to potential investors and answer their questions.
    • Do as much of the project as you can before September 1 (our oracular funding will only consider the portion completed before that date).
  • For Us:
    • On September 1, we’ll look at all of the projects that got funded and try to value all of them.
    • We’ll try to buy impact certificates of the projects they value most ($20,000 cap, or 3x total invested).
    • We reserve the right to not buy impact certificates up to our full commitment if we think people are munchkinning the rules.
  • For Accredited Investors:
    • Register on Manifund as an accredited investor (net worth > $1 million, or have made $200,000+ per year for the past two years).
    • Bid on shares of any project you like.
    • IPOs close on March 8th, but you can keep buying and selling impact certificates among one another up to (and during, and after) the September 1 deadline.
    • If this project doesn’t work for some unexpected reason, we’ll refund up to $20,000.
  • For Other People Who Might Be Interested In Funding Forecasting:
    • Let me know at scott@slatestarcodex.com to add to our $20,000 commitment.
    • Compete with us to buy impact certificates, either before, on, or after September 1.
  • FAQ:
    • See the FAQ answers below.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants

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Why This Democratic Strategist Walked Away [Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 23, 2023
248 views
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  • Simon Rosenberg became an overnight sensation by challenging the predictions of Democratic doom and highlighting evidence of a different narrative in interviews, blog posts, and tweet streams.
  • Clintonism was the central project of the New Democrats, which focused on making the Democratic Party competitive at the presidential level again and resulting in 7 of 8 presidential elections won by the Democratic Party.
  • Donald Trump’s rise has been a dark period in our history with the emergence of “Greater MAGA” which is rooted in a narrative of the white tribe rallying around itself and a sense of grievance, loss, and decline.
  • In the 2022 election, there were two elections – one inside and one outside of the battlegrounds. Democrats were able to control the information environment and push turnout up through the roof, but outside the battlegrounds, the Republicans were still louder than the Democrats.
  • To win 55% of the vote nationally, Democrats must become more competitive in the daily political discourse, build more media institutions, and become information warriors daily.
  • The goal should be to expand, not to reposition when it comes to criticism of the Democratic Party.
  • The Democratic Party has been highly successful since the late 1980’s. This success is reflected in multiple areas and is something to be proud of.
  • The goal should be to expand, not to reposition. This means looking to young voters, Latinos, Never-MAGA or -Trumpers, and young women, post-*Dobbs*.
  • The No. 1 job is to increase registration, communications, targeting, and to make young people the center of politics. This will be key for the Democratic Party to be successful in the next two years.
  • The right-wing propaganda machines have bullied public opinion. This was the case in the lead up to the 2020 election, and there should be more introspection on why the general wisdom was so off.
  • For the Democrats to win in 2024, the economy needs to be good and they need to be successful in Ukraine, while the Republicans need to present themselves differently than MAGA.

Published February 23, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Ronald Brownstein’s original post Why This Democratic Strategist Walked Away

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