Category Noah Smith [Noahpinion]

February 27, 2023

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The AI techie subculture is a relatively small subculture of youngish people in San Francisco and the peninsula to the south, who often live in group houses and who are loosely clustered around the AI industry.
Money enables the AI techie subculture, but fundamentally it’s about dreams – feeling like you’re part of something new and special and amazing that no one else is a part of.
Beliefs that stem from and help to intensify this romantic feeling of momentum and importance include the belief that the AI boom is just getting started and will supercharge the economy, the conviction that AI will replace most human endeavors, worries about malign artificial general intelligence (AGI), and a believe in the crucial importance of AI alignment (designing AI to be human-friendly).
The bohemian/yuppie optimal control problem is a balance between the desire for romantic bohemianism and the desire for upward economic mobility.
The new AI techie culture is a bit different than the culture that built the internet – it feels more conservative, drugs and alcohol are frowned on more than they used to be, there’s more rhetorical support for things like monogamy and childbearing, and there’s much less passion for social justice.

Monogamy and Childbearing – AI techies are less likely to go to local Burner events and more likely to go to Vibecamp, which is described as “Burning Man for autistic people”. There is less passion for social justice and more disgust with SF’s homelessness situation.
Immigrants from Conservative Regions – Techies nowadays are more likely to be children of immigrants from more conservative regions of the globe, such as East and South Asia, East Europe, the Middle East, and West Africa.
Nature of Technology – The internet was inherently a utopian, humanistic project, while AI is generally framed as a way for companies to replace human beings.
Money – As the startup world has become a big, institutionalized business, money has become more and more available to a younger and younger set of people.
Yuppies – Young urban professionals who dedicate their time to climbing the economic ladder.
Multi-Armed Bandit Problem – Finding a balance between yuppie social climbing and bohemian youth.
Constrained Optimization Problem – Without living two full lifetimes, you don’t get to be both entirely bohemian and entirely yuppie.
Network – People used to working in AI need to network to meet VCs, engineers, founders, and people who might give them ideas about how to solve technical problems.
Echo Chamber – AI techies’ need to network can cut them off from the wider community around them.

Published February 26, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post AI Techies!

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Don’t be a doomer [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 22, 2023

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The media has been debating the cause of teenage unhappiness in the U.S. Taylor Lorenz argued that the main reason teens are unhappy is that they realize the world around them is a “hellscape”.
There is an entire “doomer” subculture that focuses on Covid, climate change, environmental destruction, and capitalism.
Capitalism is not failing; humans are richer now than ever before and poverty, child mortality, illiteracy, and hunger are all decreasing.
The U.S. does have a social safety net including Social Security, SSDI, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, Section 8 housing vouchers, SNAP, the EITC, and the child tax credit.
Job security has stayed the same since the 1990s and the layoff rate has fallen slowly but steadily since the turn of the century.
Covid is not an HIV-like disease and has fallen far behind other issues in terms of Americans’ priorities. Vaccines developed in record time have saved millions of lives in the U.S. and worldwide.
Climate change is a real threat but recent climate models have all but ruled out most of the worst-case scenarios for warming and estimates of emissions during the 2010s have been revised downward.
Doomerism is a demotivating DDoS because it reduces motivation to solve problems, distracts people from the actual priorities, and can have negative effects on mental health in the long run.
We should actively combat doomer ideas in the world at large to save people from entering the doom loop in the first place.

Published February 22, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Don’t be a doomer

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Repost: Much of what you’ve heard about Carter and Reagan is wrong [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 22, 2023

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Carter was the one who beat inflation. He inherited a modest deficit from his predecessor and kept it at about the same level throughout his presidency, and appointed Paul Volcker as the Fed Chair, who raised interest rates to 17.61%, causing the first Volcker Recession in 1980.
Carter was the Great Deregulator, not Reagan. Despite Reagan’s fiery rhetoric, he passed only two pieces of deregulation during his two terms in office, while Carter passed seven major pieces of deregulatory legislation.
Reagan didn’t increase defense spending by much. In dollar terms, Reagan increased military budgets, but when adjusted for GDP, it looks much less impressive and was much lower than the military outlays of earlier decades.
The fall of the USSR is more complicated. The most convincing economic explanation for the Soviet collapse in the late 80s comes from Yegor Gaidar, a Soviet official who later became Prime Minister of Russia, who suggested that the Soviet economy collapsed due to the oil glut that began around 1985.
Lessons to take away. Successful policy takes a long time to work, American policy is driven less by ideology and presidential personality than we think, and presidential elections are not always as cataclysmic as we may think.

Published February 21, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Repost: Much of what you’ve heard about Carter and Reagan is wrong

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The U.S. cannot afford to turn against immigration [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 20, 2023

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Immigration is a necessity – We need continued robust immigration flows, especially of high-skilled immigrants, in order to keep our nation both prosperous and secure.
Fertility rate is declining – Despite a very small post-pandemic uptick, the country’s total fertility rate has fallen well below the replacement level over the past decade and a half.
Immigration is beneficial to innovation and technical leadership – Immigrants are responsible for 30% of U.S. patents and 38% of U.S. Nobel Prizes in science, and nearly three quarters of all U.S. innovation since 1976 can be attributed to high-skilled immigration.
AI research is especially important – AI systems will be crucial to precision weaponry in the not-too-distant future, and the U.S. is in danger of falling behind if we don’t retain our ability to welcome China’s best and brightest.
Border chaos is not worth it – Making it easier to apply for asylum by crossing the border illegally rather than presenting yourself at a point of entry naturally creates a ton of disorder at the border and fuels an anti-immigration sentiment.
Compromise is necessary – A long-term bargain between increased border security and increased legal pathways to immigration must be struck in order to increase immigration.

Published February 18, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post The U.S. cannot afford to turn against immigration

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China must stop its coal industry [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 17, 2023

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China is the world’s chief emitter of carbon dioxide, dwarfing the U.S.
China is rapidly transitioning to renewables, building more solar in one year than all the solar installed in the U.S.
China is still the world’s coal superpower and coal consumption is expected to continue increasing for at least 3 years
The coal industry is politically very powerful in China, with coal companies, provincial governments, and industry workers all relying on it for income and jobs
The U.S. may be able to help China transition away from coal by making solar cheaper, cutting a deal to reduce oil use, or by imposing carbon tariffs
Leaving coal in the ground provides a form of insurance against future collapses of civilization

Published February 17, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post China must stop its coal industry

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Decoupling is not deglobalization [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 16, 2023

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• Decoupling from China is gaining steam, but many voices in the financial press and international economic organizations are sounding a note of concern.
• Critics of decoupling often conflate it with deglobalization, but they are not the same. Decoupling could even make the world more globalized.
• Actual deglobalization started before Trump, likely due to the financial crisis of 2008.
• Studies predict significant losses from decoupling, but their models rely on questionable assumptions.
• Instead of reverting to the old equilibrium of 2015, we should be thinking about how to shape the next wave of globalization in a way that encourages global economic growth while also providing security.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Decoupling is not deglobalization

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Europe has to stand against Russia [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 12, 2023

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• Russia has regained the initiative in the war in Ukraine, with a shift in tactics to infantry and artillery barrages, and a mobilization of 300,000 troops.
• Russia’s imperialistic ambitions are clear, with a desire to regain control over former USSR republics, former Warsaw Pact countries, and even parts of Germany.
• Ukraine needs sustained outside help to prevail against Russia’s larger population and resources.
• The U.S. is an unreliable partner against Russia, with support for Ukraine becoming a culture-war wedge issue, and private contractors not always seeing eye to eye with the U.S. government.
• Europe must unite and prepare itself to prevail in a long stand-off with the aggressive empire next door.
• The U.S. is increasingly focusing its attention on Asia, not Europe, and this could weaken its ability to defend Europe from Russia.
• Europe is more powerful than Russia in terms of population, manufacturing output, and economic dependence.
• Europe has already adapted to the cutoffs of Russian gas and oil, and can continue to do so.
• Europe must increase its defense spending, put aside internal squabbles, and recognize that it is on the side of the “good guys” in order to defend itself against Russia.
• The U.S. stabilized Europe in the 20th century, but now Europe must prove that it can defend its own freedom.

Published February 12, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Europe has to stand against Russia

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The Developing Country Industrialization series [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

February 10, 2023

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• Robert Lucas’ quote is used to introduce the article, which is about the development of various countries.
• The article is based on the ideas of Joe Studwell and Ha-Joon Chang, who wrote books about how countries can develop.
• The article looks at the development of Bangladesh, Dominican Republic, Eastern Bloc, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland and Malaysia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Vietnam.
• Each country is discussed in terms of their development strategies, successes, and failures.
• The article concludes with plans for the next series, which will include Ethiopia and Thailand.

Published February 10, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post The Developing Country Industrialization series

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The state of Bidenomics [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]