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CategoryNoah Smith [Noahpinion]

Repost: Why I’m so excited about solar and batteries [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 7, 2023
514 views
R

• Solar and battery technology is revolutionizing the energy landscape, making renewable energy cheaper than ever before.
• The productivity slowdown of the 1970s was likely caused by expensive energy, as oil prices rose and no better energy sources were available.
• IT innovation has driven some productivity growth, but not enough to replace the energy stagnation.
• Solar and battery technology is driving a new technological revolution, with costs continuing to decline.
• Cheap energy has the potential to drive productivity growth, enabling a variety of benefits such as desalination, improved home appliances, more efficient construction, and electric transportation.
• Cheap energy could also reduce inequality, if the productivity gains are shared equally.

Published February 7, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Repost: Why I’m so excited about solar and batteries

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Can India industrialize? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 6, 2023
665 views
C

• India is the most important developing country in the world due to its sheer size and low income levels.
• India’s exports are mostly composed of low-value manufactured goods and raw materials/agricultural products.
• India’s services exports are 60% as large as its exports of goods.
• India needs to focus on labor-intensive manufacturing to move people out of agriculture and urbanize faster.
• The Modi government has made big strides in improving infrastructure, but education and literacy rates remain low.
• India has been trying to promote manufacturing through its “Make in India” initiative, but it has failed to gain much traction, possibly due to the Indian regulatory environment and business culture..
• The failure may be due to the focus on making things for the domestic market, which does not force companies to increase their productivity or develop new products.
• India has been trying to attract foreign direct investment through special economic zones (SEZs), but they have been mostly focused on service exports.
• Electronics hardware, semiconductors, and telecom equipment are the manufacturing sectors India should be focusing on, as they are perfect for globally integrated supply chains and offer plenty of opportunity for technological upgrading.
• India should also consider another round of land reform, as it can help small farmers own their own plots, increase agricultural output, and force landlords to become more entrepreneurial.
• Overall, India has the potential to become a major player in the global economy, and the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s have given Indians a taste of what their country can achieve.
• The article emphasizes the need for experimentation and learning from other countries in order to achieve economic development, with the goal of allowing the world’s largest country to take its rightful place among the industrialized nations.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Can India industrialize?

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You are now living through Cold War 2 [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 4, 2023
611 views
Y

• The Spy Balloon of 2023 is a sign that Cold War 2 is already here, and tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating.
• Calls for a return to the engagement strategy of the 1980s-2010s are coming from China and the U.S., but they are unlikely to be successful.
• The events of 2019-22, including the Hong Kong protests and China’s repression of the Uyghurs, will not be forgotten.
• China’s recent overtures have not been matched by more peaceful actions on the ground, and U.S. intelligence officials allege that China is preparing for action against Taiwan.
• China’s neighbors are forming balancing coalitions and seeking increased military cooperation with the U.S.
• The trend may be away from Chimerica, but there will still be plenty of trade between the two countries unless and until a major war breaks out.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post You are now living through Cold War 2

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Friend-shoring vs. “Buy American” [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 1, 2023
581 views
F

• The Biden administration has kept tariffs on China and is considering outbound investment restrictions, but is also emphasizing the idea of “friend-shoring”—moving supply chains out of China and into friendly countries.
• The U.S. should incentivize high-tech manufacturing in the U.S., but it needs to be done with robots, not labor-intensive manufacturing.
• The U.S. needs to build a large coalition of allies and friends to balance China, and should err on the side of deference to those allies.
• The U.S. should offer Japan and South Korea full access to the U.S. market, including tax credits, to negate China’s advantage.
• The U.S. should not try to force small allies and friends to appreciate their currency against the dollar, as this would be stingy and selfish.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Friend-shoring vs. “Buy American”

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Professionalize the police [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 29, 2023
500 views
P

• Tyre Nichols was fatally beaten by Memphis police, sparking protests across the country and raising the question of what to do about police brutality.
• The “defund the police” movement was a failure, and even Black Americans wanted more spending on policing in their neighborhoods.
• Compared to other developed countries, U.S. police have far fewer hours of training and are more likely to use deadly force.
• Increasing the required hours of police training in America by a factor of 4 or 5 is an obvious policy to try, but some activists are resistant to the idea.
• Professionalizing the police should go beyond training to include education, such as requiring a college degree, which would create positive selection effects and lead to healthier lifestyles.

Published January 29, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Professionalize the police

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Vertical communities [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 27, 2023
666 views
V

• The paper “Public Perceptions of Local Influence” by Joshua Hochberg and Eitan Hersh found that most people can no longer name individuals who they think are influential in their community.
• This could be due to big companies muscling out small businesses, or it could be a sign of Americans becoming disengaged from their local communities.
• The idea of “community” has changed from being based on physical proximity to being based on identities, interests, and values.
• The internet has enabled the formation of vertical communities, which are groups of people united by identities, interests, and values rather than by physical proximity.
• Horizontal communities still exist, but they are often stifling and repressive.
• Vertical communities are thriving online, but they are not “network states” and are subordinate to horizontal communities.
• Public goods are still provided by horizontal organizations, but social interaction happens in the cloud.
• This dichotomy presents an enormous challenge to our institutions, as public goods are easier to provide when people have homogeneous preferences.
• Vertical communities could exacerbate divisions and make it difficult to provide public goods.

Published January 27, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Vertical communities

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Actually, Japan has changed a lot [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 24, 2023
494 views
A

• Rupert Wingfield-Hayes’ farewell essay paints a picture of Japan as a stagnant and static society, but this is inaccurate.
• Japan has changed in important and visible ways, such as its built environment, fertility rate, immigration policy, and role of women in the workforce.
• Aging is a real problem, but Japan’s fertility rate is higher than any other developed country in its region.
• Immigration policy has changed substantially, with the number of foreign-born workers in Japan doubling in the first few years of Abe’s administration.
• The percentage of women in corporate management has increased from 11% to 15%.
• Japan’s choice not to tie middle-class wealth to housing prices is a smart one, as it has allowed for affordable housing and economic growth.
• Westerners should not essentialize Japan, as this will limit their ability to offer meaningful solutions to the country’s problems.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Actually, Japan has changed a lot

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Actually, Japan has changed a lot [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 24, 2023
542 views
A

• Rupert Wingfield-Hayes’ farewell essay paints a picture of Japan as a stagnant and static society, but this is inaccurate.
• Japan has changed in important and highly visible ways, such as its built environment, fertility rate, immigration policy, and role of women in the workforce.
• Gerontocracy is a major problem in Japan, both politically and corporately, and low-productivity menial jobs are a big reason why Japanese people earn such low and stagnant wages.
• Japan’s depreciating real estate is actually a strength, as it allows for dense development and frees up household cash to be put into stocks and bonds.
• Japan has done better in terms of housing policy, construction, landscaping and urbanism than just about any country in the West, and its fertility rate is higher than any other developed East Asian country.
• Immigration policy has changed substantially in the past decade, and the number of foreign-born workers in Japan has doubled.
• The percentage of women in corporate management has increased from 11% to 15%, and Japan’s female employment rate now exceeds America’s.
• Westerners should not essentialize Japan, as this will prevent them from offering the country outside perspectives that could help it solve its very real problems.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Actually, Japan has changed a lot

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The fiscal arsonists [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 22, 2023
606 views
T

• The U.S. has a law stipulating a maximum amount of debt that the federal government can issue, currently set at about $31.4 trillion.
• In 2011, the Republican-controlled Congress (Tea Party Congress) refused to raise the debt ceiling in order to force the President to agree to spending cuts.
• This was a dangerous move, as it put the U.S. in danger of a sovereign default, which could have caused economic chaos, disruption of trade, and widespread recessions.
• Despite the 2011 debt ceiling crisis being resolved, debt ceiling brinksmanship has become a regular part of the GOP’s political toolkit.
• Currently, Congressional Republicans are holding the process hostage and demanding spending cuts.
• Spending cuts would be beneficial right now, but the correct way to do it is to pass spending cuts in Congress and iron out a budget deal with Biden.
• Debt ceiling brinksmanship is an absolute clown show, making the U.S. look like a banana republic and increasing the risk of recession.
• It is possible that the whole thing is just Congressional Republicans trying to signal toughness and partisanship to their voter base, but this is a boneheaded way of creating political cover.
• Debt ceiling brinksmanship also encourages worse fiscal arsonists who are lurking out there in the margins of the political-economic discourse.

Published January 22, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post The fiscal arsonists

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How much does aging really hurt a country? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 20, 2023
589 views
H

• China’s population has started shrinking a year ahead of schedule, with India projected to surpass China’s population in 2023.
• Aging demographics are a source of national weakness for all industrialized countries, with fertility already low or falling fast everywhere on Earth.
• Aging can reduce living standards by increasing the old-age dependency ratio, ossifying management, and reducing entrepreneurship.
• Research literature generally finds that aging is a drag on productivity, with studies finding a strong negative effect on growth for a number of economic variables.
• Strategies to fight against the tide include building more machines, having workers retire later, and improving capital allocation and education.
• In the long run, solving the aging problem will require figuring out how to entice the populace to have more kids.

Published January 20, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post How much does aging really hurt a country?

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