CategoryPeter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]

• Russia has now formally withdrawn from the START Treaty – The START Treaty is the core of the entire disarmament and non-proliferation regime, and the basis for the entire American-Russian diplomatic relationship.
• Putin has stated his intention to not back down from the war in Ukraine – Despite the fact that it is not allowed under international law, Putin has justified the war as being for “ancestral lands”.
• The Western world is unified in their stance against Russia – The Munich Security Conference has shown a strong stance from the EU, with Ursula vandale and the EU’s foreign policy Chief both making strong statements.

Published February 22, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Putin Announces Withdrawal From START Treaty

• Wagner: A Russian paramilitary group controlled by a man named Pragueism and provides the Russian government with plausible deniability on military activities.
• Ukraine War: Wagner has been involved in Battle of Bakfit with a minimum of 10,000 casualties and potentially up to 40,000.
• Recruitment: Wagner recruits from former military officers and prisons, however with the Russian military expanding there is no longer a pool of skilled military recruits for Wagner to pull from.
• Implications: The implications for the Ukraine war are limited, however elsewhere in the world the implications are significant as the Kremlin has been using Wagner to generate influence in Africa. If Wagner cannot maintain its current staffing levels, it is only a matter of time before one country decides that Wagner is more trouble than it’s worth.

Published February 20, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Wagner Group: Russia’s Flunkies

• Moldova is a small country located between the Carpathian Mountains and the Black Sea that has been used as a training ground for Russian intelligence agencies.
• The Russians have used their political influence in the country to engineer the fall of the government.
• Whoever controls Moldova has been able to determine which way the armies can flow.
• The Eastern edge of Moldova, called Transnistra, declared independence in 1992 with Russian sponsorship and has maintained independence ever since.
• Russia has maintained a strong presence in the country and has worked to make sure that the government of Moldova is as non-functional as possible.
• During the Ukraine war, Russia has tried to use Moldova as a wedge either to manipulate refugees coming out of Ukraine or to launch missiles into Ukrainian targets.
• If Ukraine falls, Moldova is the next target.
• If Ukraine wins, Ukrainian or NATO military action against the Russian troops in Transnistra could fold Moldova into the European and the NATO family of countries.

Published February 15, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Next on the Chopping Block: Moldova

• Russian oil production – 500,000 barrels/day, 1/2 of 1% of global production, 10% of Russian exports
• Permafrost – Damage to wells takes 30 years to repair, without oil services firms
• European oil & refined products ban – Reduces demand for Russian product, break-even price for Russian crude is between $40 & $60/barrel
• Friday seminar – Covers economic impacts of war one year out, including oil & disruptions, natural gas, raw Commodities, Agriculture, & entire supply chain

Published February 14, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry?