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The Catch-24 of Replacing Joe Biden [David A. Graham, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
February 10, 2023
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• Joe Biden is likely to run for president again in 2024, despite the fact that most Democrats don’t want him to.
• Biden is motivated to run again to turn back the threat to American democracy posed by Donald Trump and his heirs.
• Biden’s approval ratings are the best they’ve been since the end of 2021, but voters are still not buying it.
• Biden has the wisdom and ego to not worry too much about being wanted, and he has neutralized many of his potential challengers by drawing them into his administration.
• Kamala Harris is unlikely to draw a challenge from the sort of candidate who’d try to unify the party in the way Biden has, and she hasn’t had any signature moments or policies.
• Pete Buttigieg and Mitch Landrieu are potential claimants to the moderate mantle from outside the administration, but they face difficulty in running against Biden.
• Biden has managed to stare down sectors of the Democratic base on key issues without losing them, and the positive reception of his State of the Union only solidifies his position.

Published February 10, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read David A. Graham’s original post The Catch-24 of Replacing Joe Biden

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Trumpism Without Trump [David A. Graham, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
February 7, 2023
93 views
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• Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Mike Pompeo are all reportedly on the verge of announcing a run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, much to the fury of Donald Trump.
• Trump has accused DeSantis of being “very disloyal” and has alleged that he tearfully “begged” Trump for his endorsement in his first run for governor in 2018.
• Trump has remade the GOP in his own image, yet his personal appeal to its voters appears to be waning.
• Candidates who have tried to run as Trumpists in competitive elections have largely struggled.
• Despite this, the would-be nominees are constructing a Trumpism without Trump, based on exploiting cultural resentment.
• Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong, and many leaders of his party have never left his side.
• Trump is now threatening to make a third-party bid if he doesn’t win the Republican nomination and doesn’t approve of the Republican nominee.

Published February 7, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read David A. Graham’s original post Trumpism Without Trump

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The Institutional Arsonist Turns on His Own Party [Peter Wehner, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
February 5, 2023
143 views
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• Donald Trump may lose the GOP presidential primary and, out of spite, wreck Republican prospects in 2024.
• A *Bulwark* poll found that a large majority of Republicans are ready to move on from Trump, but more than a quarter of likely Republican voters are ready to follow Trump to a third-party bid.
• Trump has flirted with third-party runs before, including in 2000, and he refused to rule out a third-party run in 2015.
• Trump has no attachment to the Republican Party or, as best as one can tell, to anything or anyone else.
• Trump could ensure that Republican presidential and congressional candidates lose simply by criticizing them during the campaign, accusing the Republican Party of disloyalty, and signaling to his supporters that they should sit out the election.
• House Republicans have elevated and showcased Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has embraced QAnon conspiracy theories, insisted that 9/11 was an inside job, and voiced support for executing prominent Democrats.
• Republicans will abandon Trump only when he’s deemed to be a surefire political loser.
• Donald Trump delights in watching the world burn.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Peter Wehner’s original post The Institutional Arsonist Turns on His Own Party

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Why Aren’t More People Running for President? [Russell Berman, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
February 4, 2023
145 views
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• Joe Biden will deliver the State of the Union address at the start of his third year in office, but there are currently no other declared presidential candidates.
• Nikki Haley is expected to kick off her campaign in Charleston next week, and other potential Republican candidates include Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, and Mike Pompeo.
• Biden has been content to use the new House Republican majority as a foil, and his State of the Union address will likely focus on conciliation over confrontation.
• Biden allies expect him to formally announce his reelection bid sometime after the State of the Union, but it could still be months away.
• No Democrats of note have made any moves to challenge Biden for the nomination, and Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are hoping to ensure that the GOP does not leave them behind.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Russell Berman’s original post Why Aren’t More People Running for President?

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The Rise of the DeSantis Democrats [Olivia Reingold, TFP]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Free Press], Politics
December 19, 2022
118 views
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  • DeSantis Democrats are Florida voters who, until recently, identified as Democrats but in November opted to reelect Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
  • They are disaffected Democrats alienated from the party and are characterized by their focus on practicality.
  • The big question is whether people like them will become permanent Republicans, and if they can be convinced to vote for a party they once didn’t imagine voting for.
  • They are similar to Reagan Democrats and may shape the national political landscape in 2024.
  • Ron DeSantis is seen by supporters as an “effective” and “chief executive” figure who is the “good parts of Trump” without the cockiness.
  • His supporters are diverse, ranging from nostalgic Democrats to disillusioned progressives.
  • DeSantis’ policies, such as his stance against illegal immigration and rejection of “Covid theater”, have earned him the support of many Floridians.
  • There has been a shift in the priorities of Floridians, which has led to a surge in DeSantis’ popularity.

Click HERE for original. Published December 19, 2022

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The midterms should be a stake through the heart of the mobilization myth [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

By Spencer Chen
In [Slow Boring]
December 13, 2022
144 views
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  • Swing voters are real and mobilization theory is not a viable way to win elections.
  • Democrats won key races in the 2022 midterms by persuading a small number of Republicans to vote for them.
  • Democrats need to appeal to swing voters in order to win in states like Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.
  • There is no tradeoff between trying to maximize turnout and trying to appeal to swing voters.
  • Political advocacy involves trying to convince people to change their minds and create new possibilities.

Click HERE for original. Published December 13, 2022

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