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The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference [John Tierney, The Free Press]

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  • Cashiers wear protective masks in a grocery store in New York City on April 2, 2020. This is an example of the widespread adoption of masks during the pandemic.
  • The most rigorous and extensive review of the scientific literature concludes that neither surgical masks nor N95 masks have been shown to make a difference in reducing the spread of Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses. This is the most authoritative estimate of the value provided by wearing masks during the pandemic.
  • Before the pandemic, clinical trials repeatedly showed little or no benefit from wearing masks in preventing the spread of respiratory illnesses like flu and colds. This is why the World Health Organization, the CDC, and other national public health agencies did not recommend masking the public before the pandemic.
  • The gold standard for medical evidence is the randomized clinical trial, and the gold standard for analyzing this evidence is Cochrane. Cochrane is the world’s largest and most respected organization for evaluating health interventions.
  • It has published a new Cochrane review of the literature on masks, including trials during the Covid-19 pandemic in hospitals and in community settings. This review concludes that wearing any kind of face covering “probably makes little or no difference” in reducing the spread of respiratory illness.
  • Masks cause social, psychological, and medical problems, including a constellation of maladies called “Mask-Induced Exhaustion Syndrome.” This is a potential downside to wearing masks that is often overlooked.
  • Public health officials continue recommending or mandating masks without good evidence of their effectiveness or any pretense of cost-benefit analysis. This is in violation of the first-do-no-harm principle.
  • The CDC’s director, Rochelle Walensky, remains determined to ignore the best research on masks. This is despite the lack of evidence that masks make any difference.
  • The CDC repeatedly cherry-picked observational data, crediting masks for a short-term reduction in Covid rates in some localities while ignoring contrary data from more systematic analyses. This is an example of the CDC’s disregard for the best available evidence.
  • Can anything persuade the maskaholics in the public health establishment and the public to give up their obsession? This is an important question that needs to be answered in order to move forward.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read John Tierney’s original post The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference

COVID-19: Where to Go from Here [Emily Oster, ParentData]

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  • When I started this newsletter my vision was to write about pregnancy and parenting.
  • The COVID pandemic dramatically changed the focus of this work, and for most of the first two years, the majority of the posts here were about COVID-19. Over the past year, this has become less and less true.
  • Looking through the archives, it has been months since I wrote about COVID.
  • One reason for this is that there haven’t been a lot of updates. But more importantly, people stopped asking. This newsletter aims to be responsive, and, frankly, I get more questions these days about lead in chocolate than COVID-19.
  • It seemed like an appropriate time to address this. The COVID situation has evolved, for now, to what seems like a steady state. COVID is not gone, and (more on this below) it is still a significant health concern. But with high vaccination rates, and a large share of the population having had the virus, it has receded as a threat. Barring unexpected changes, we have arrived at a place where we are likely to stay for a while.
  • This means that when I address questions — which I’ll do below — these are really long-term answers. There was a time when the COVID situation seemed to change minute by minute; that time is not now.

Published February 20, 2023
Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post COVID-19: Where to Go from Here

What Not to Ask Me About My Long COVID [Jennifer Senior, The Atlantic]

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• Long COVID is a condition that millions of people suffer from, and it is often worse than the physical symptoms.
• Asking “Are you doing any better?” is not helpful, as it is a chronic illness with an unknown recovery timetable.
• People with long COVID often experience depression, shame, and resentment.
• To pass for well, people with long COVID may need to take a combination of medications.
• Doctors often underestimate the quality of life issues associated with long COVID.
• The Mount Sinai Hospital in New York has a long-COVID team that thinks holistically, but many people don’t have access to the same resources.
• Be gentle with people who have long COVID, as it can be a difficult and isolating experience.

Published February 15, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Jennifer Senior’s original post What Not to Ask Me About My Long COVID

Contra Kavanagh On Fideism [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

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• Chris Kavanagh recently tweeted about Scott Alexander’s article on Ivermectin, criticizing the rationalist community for ignoring conspiracy ecosystems and how they distort things.
• Rachel responded to Chris’ tweet, suggesting that the article may have persuaded some people to get vaccinated instead of taking Ivermectin.
• Chris responded to Rachel, saying that his critique was orientated towards the rationalist community and what it says it does vs. what he sees.
• The author shares a personal story of how he was once a believer in a conspiracy theory, and how anti-conspiracy bloggers and podcasters could have saved him from a five year wild-goose-chase, but chose not to.
• Kavanagh’s criticism of the author’s 25,000 word essay on ivermectin is accepted, but not from him, as he has devoted his career to the subject.
• The author interprets Kavanagh’s comment as suggesting that it is a mistake to even try to evaluate the evidence, as it suggests there might be evidence on both sides.
• The author points out that there were actually thirty different studies that supported ivermectin, and it was adopted in several countries.
• The author compares Kavanagh’s comment to fideism, the belief that someone who reasons their way to belief in God is a sinner.
• The author argues that the PR argument of Kavanagh’s comment looks bad, as it suggests that doing good science is a near occasion of sin for doing bad science.
• The author argues that conspiracy theorists have the same biases as everyone else, but are slightly worse at applying CONSTANT VIGILANCE.
• The author uses the example of premenstrual dysphoric disorder to illustrate how it is not obvious how to apply the heuristic “trust experts”, and how both sides were trying to make the reader short-circuit their thought process.
• The author argues that it is important to have tolerance for others forming their own opinions, and for science communicators to help guide people through this process.

Published February 15, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Contra Kavanagh On Fideism

The Four Horsemen of the Tech Recession [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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• Stephanie Palazzolo wrote on Twitter that it was disorienting to see tech layoffs and then to see US job numbers increase and unemployment drop to its lowest level in 50 years.
• The four horsemen of the tech recession are the COVID hangover, the hardware cycle, Apple’s App Tracking Transparency, and the end of zero interest rates.
• The COVID hangover is the single biggest issue facing tech companies, as consumers with no way to spend discretionary income and flush with stimulus checks bought new devices, subscribed to streaming services, and used cloud computing.
• The hardware cycle is impacting companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Intel, as well as TSMC, as production slowdowns and pent-up demand for Apple Silicon-based processors have caused revenue to drop.
• Apple’s App Tracking Transparency has caused a decrease in ad revenue for many tech companies, as users opt out of tracking.
• The end of zero interest rates has caused tech companies to re-evaluate their investments, as the cost of capital has increased.
• The COVID hangover refers to the inevitable slowdown in tech sales after the initial surge due to the pandemic.
• The end of zero interest rates refers to investors realizing that the cost of capital input in their equations can be something other than zero, and the price they are wiling to pay for growth without profitability is falling through the floor.
• The ATT recession refers to Apple’s App Tracking Transparency (ATT) initiative, which fundamentally disrupts the “hub-and-spoke” model of digital advertising, leading to a crash in revenue growth for companies that rely on performance marketing.
• The article argues that the impact of ATT has been underestimated, and that ascribing the advertising revenue headwinds to macroeconomic factors is misguided.

 

The Economy Is Still Very, Very Weird [Derek Thompson, The Atlantic]

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– The US economy has been in a state of “weirdness” since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
– This has been characterized by a “yo-yo economy” of historic highs and lows in various industries.
– Examples include gas prices, durable goods, used cars, savings, housing, tech, and microchips.
– The pandemic has caused a mismatch between supply and demand, with companies struggling to anticipate and satisfy consumer preferences.
– The legacy of the yo-yo economy could be profound, with the Biden administration embracing policies to make America stronger, richer, greener, and less reliant on supply chains.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Derek Thompson’s original post The Economy Is Still Very, Very Weird

The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly [Vinay Prasad, The Free Press]

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• Damar Hamlin’s near-death experience on national television has sparked speculation that Covid vaccines are the cause of sudden deaths among young, seemingly healthy people.
• The hashtag #DiedSuddenly has been used to track these unexpected deaths, and an anti-vaccine documentary has been seen by millions.
• Side effects of the vaccine include short-term effects such as arm pain, chills, fever, and headache, as well as more serious events such as myocarditis, a clotting condition, and blood clots in the lungs.
• Myocarditis is more common in young males and occurs more often after the second dose of vaccine, particularly with Moderna.
• Two recent studies have raised concerns about the connection between the mRNA vaccines and myocarditis, and the potential risk of strokes in people over 65 with the Pfizer bivalent booster.
• It is difficult to determine the cause of cardiac arrest in a seemingly healthy person, and an autopsy may be needed to reveal acute inflammation of the heart.
• Recent op-ed in *The Wall Street Journal* asserted that there were many “excess deaths” in 2020 and 2021 that were not attributable to Covid.
• These non-Covid deaths were disproportionately among young adults and likely already exceed 250,000.
• Americans have good reasons for their skepticism of public health leaders due to their denial of evidence and lack of transparency.
• Vaccines do not prevent people from getting or spreading Covid-19, and natural immunity from contracting Covid-19 is not considered when making vaccination recommendations.
• FDA is expected to call for an annual dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, but without studies looking into whether these vaccines provide sufficient protection to make any risks worthwhile.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Vinay Prasad’s original post The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly

How Not To Handle COVID: Chinese Edition [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • China has always had an issue with information control, with data not matching what they report to the world.
  • China changed their policy to no longer collect data due to COVID, leading to questions about the accuracy of their reports.
  • Vaccines from China have been proven to be ineffective in preventing COVID.
  • It is difficult to predict what is going on in China due to the lack of data and the rapidly changing nature of the virus.
  • It may take up to 6 months to get a better understanding of the virus and the variants circulating in China, and how this will affect the rest of the world.

You can watch the full How Not To Handle COVID: Chinese Edition on YouTube – Published January 20, 2023

 

We Have a Tripledemic. Not of Disease, But of Fear. [Vinay Prasad, The Free Press]

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• The media has been filled with stories about the “tripledemic” of Covid-19, influenza, and RSV, which is being blamed for high rates of illness and hospitalizations, especially among children.
• The best available evidence contradicts the narrative from the media and many public health officials, and the insistence on never-ending precautions in the face of inevitable exposure to germs is not only medically misguided, it also threatens to stigmatize the most mundane human interactions.
• There is limited evidence that the tripledemic exists, and no evidence that prolonged precautions delay the inevitable.
• There is no avoiding respiratory viruses, and it is natural, healthy, and necessary for young children to be exposed to many viruses in order to build immunity.
• The evidence to support masking was thin before Covid-19, and there is no evidence that masking young children for Covid-19, flu, and RSV viruses is effective.
• Covid-19 disrupted all aspects of life, and as the disruptions fade, other viruses have inevitably returned. Hospitals should prepare for this, and federal reimbursement should pay for pediatric beds.

Published January 10, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read the original post.

How Twitter Rigged the Covid Debate [David Zweig, The Free Press]

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  • Twitter suppressed true information from doctors and public-health experts that was at odds with U.S. government policy.
  • The Trump and Biden administrations directly pressed Twitter executives to moderate the platform’s content according to their wishes.
  • Twitter acted as a kind of FBI subsidiary, re-writing the platform’s policies on the fly to accommodate political bias and pressure.
  • Twitter suppressed views and even scientific evidence that ran to the contrary.
  • Bots and contractors were used to moderate content, leading to a significant error rate.
  • Higher level employees at Twitter chose the inputs for the bots and decision trees, and determined suspensions.
  • Content that was contrarian but true, and the people who conveyed that content, were still subject to getting flagged and suppressed.
  • Twitter propped up the official government line that prioritizing mitigation over other concerns was the best approach to the pandemic.
  • If Twitter had allowed the kind of open forum for debate that it claimed to believe in, could any of this have turned out differently?

Click HERE for original. Published December 26, 2022

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