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The U.S. cannot afford to turn against immigration [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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  • Immigration is a necessity – We need continued robust immigration flows, especially of high-skilled immigrants, in order to keep our nation both prosperous and secure.
  • Fertility rate is declining – Despite a very small post-pandemic uptick, the country’s total fertility rate has fallen well below the replacement level over the past decade and a half.
  • Immigration is beneficial to innovation and technical leadership – Immigrants are responsible for 30% of U.S. patents and 38% of U.S. Nobel Prizes in science, and nearly three quarters of all U.S. innovation since 1976 can be attributed to high-skilled immigration.
  • AI research is especially important – AI systems will be crucial to precision weaponry in the not-too-distant future, and the U.S. is in danger of falling behind if we don’t retain our ability to welcome China’s best and brightest.
  • Border chaos is not worth it – Making it easier to apply for asylum by crossing the border illegally rather than presenting yourself at a point of entry naturally creates a ton of disorder at the border and fuels an anti-immigration sentiment.
  • Compromise is necessary – A long-term bargain between increased border security and increased legal pathways to immigration must be struck in order to increase immigration.

Published February 18, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post The U.S. cannot afford to turn against immigration

The Tragic Mystery of Teenage Anxiety [Derek Thompson, The Atlantic]

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• American teenagers, especially girls and LGBQ teens, are experiencing historic rates of anxiety and sadness.
• The Youth Risk Behavior Survey found that the share of teenage girls who say they experience “persistent feelings of sadness or hopelessness” increased from 36 to 57 percent from 2011 to 2021.
• LGBQ teens are more likely to experience poor mental health, unstable housing or homelessness, bullying, and suicide attempts.
• The surge in teen anxiety has coincided with other behavioral trends that aren’t obviously bad, such as a decline in smoking, drug use, and drinking.
• Possible explanations for teen anxiety include social media, school shootings, climate change, and changes in parenting.
• The best evidence suggests that social media is not like smoking, but more of an attention alcohol.
• The relationship between rising LGBQ self-identification and rising LGBQ anxiety is complicated, with liberal and conservative explanations that are irreconcilable.
• Despite the ubiquity of “therapy-speak” on the internet, modern internet culture has adopted therapy-speak while repeatedly setting fire to the actual lessons of modern therapy.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Derek Thompson’s original post The Tragic Mystery of Teenage Anxiety

Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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Processing is an energyintensive process which is usually done in multiple steps and in different facilities.
China is the largest producer of raw and finished steel due to subsidies and lowinterest loans.
• There are already plenty of social and technological anti-bot filters, and fear of backlash will limit adoption.
Russia imports raw materials, uses their cheap power and coal to process and exports the valueadded materials.
The world is facing a crisis due to the economic, demographic and security issues in China and Russia.
We need to prepare for a system where materials from these two countries face a significant decrease in production.
• It suggests that chatbots could be used to trick people into believing they are talking to a real person.
February 17th webinar explores the economic implications of the Ukraine war and Russian minerals processing.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild

Americans have been gaining weight for as long as records exist [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

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• Obesity has been a growing problem since the late 19th century, not just since 1980.
• The population aging has a mechanical impact on average obesity that is unrelated to changes in diet and nutrition.
• The average Americans’ weight change since the 1980s is startling, but the data suggests a much more boring story about a long-term increase in average weight punctuated by the Great Depression and World War II.
• Food insecurity was incredibly common for most of human history, but now spending on groceries has plummeted as a share of household spending.
• Food is also better across many dimensions of betterness, from ultra-processed junk food to home cooking.
• The downside to living in a society with a great deal of material abundance is that it is much less common to need to choose between going hungry and eating something you don’t like.

Published February 2, 2023
Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post Americans have been gaining weight for as long as records exist

Deglobalization: There’s No Stopping It Now [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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• Globalization for the US was never about economics or trade, but about security, as demonstrated by Cold War foreign policy.
• The US benefited from globalization due to its large economy, but now the rest of the world has a combined economy that is 3-4x larger making indirect economic subsidization untenable.
• US politics has shifted with the changing demographics, economics, and security, diminishing support for globalization.
• Demographic shifts (urbanization, industrialization, Baby Boomers) have resulted in a global population running out of people 40 and under, eliminating the ability to sustain the globalized system through trade.
• The Biden Administration is far more anti-globalization than the Trump Administration, meaning it would take at least 6 years for the US to re-enter the globalized system, by which point China will likely be gone.

Published February 2, 2023
Visit Youtube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Deglobalization: There’s No Stopping It Now

Is the AI Revolution Here? [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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AI is changing the way we work and live, but it is not necessarily creating or destroying jobs.
The impact of AI will be felt in midlevel white collar jobs, not in lowskilled bluecollar jobs.
Over the past five years, the greatest increase in takehome pay has been for lowskilled bluecollar workers, helping to narrow economic inequality.
Retiring Baby Boomers are liquidating investments and going into lowrisk investments, which does not fund startups or larger tech companies.
There is also a global shortage of 2030 year olds to do research and development of these technologies.
We are still far from a breakthrough in General AI, which is necessary for machines to be able to think and act independently.
Applied AI is more like machine programming, which is limited in its scope.
Universal Basic Income is not the answer, as productivity has stalled and labor shortages mean more people are in work than ever before.
AI is real and will change how we work and live, but the impact is likely to be different than expected.

You can watch the full Is the AI Revolution Here? on YouTube – Published January 30, 2023

Demographics Part 6: The Orthodox Predicament [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Orthodox Christian world is a huge swath of territory stretching from Russia to Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia
  • These countries have experienced broad-scale economic dislocation, resulting in high levels of out migration
  • Primary method of birth control in the region is abortion, leading to low birth rates, a low death rate, and high infertility rates
  • The Russians have suffered from stacked geopolitical disasters and have the smallest generation ever
  • In Ukraine, the population is already dissolving, with the Ukrainian ethnicity likely to vanish within 20-30 years
  • Russian ethnicity is likely to follow suit – Population decline in the Orthodox Christian world has the greatest economic impact in Northeast Asia

You can watch the full  Demographics Part 6: The Orthodox Predicament on YouTube – Published January 26, 2023

Actually, Japan has changed a lot [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Rupert Wingfield-Hayes’ farewell essay paints a picture of Japan as a stagnant and static society, but this is inaccurate.
• Japan has changed in important and highly visible ways, such as its built environment, fertility rate, immigration policy, and role of women in the workforce.
• Gerontocracy is a major problem in Japan, both politically and corporately, and low-productivity menial jobs are a big reason why Japanese people earn such low and stagnant wages.
• Japan’s depreciating real estate is actually a strength, as it allows for dense development and frees up household cash to be put into stocks and bonds.
• Japan has done better in terms of housing policy, construction, landscaping and urbanism than just about any country in the West, and its fertility rate is higher than any other developed East Asian country.
• Immigration policy has changed substantially in the past decade, and the number of foreign-born workers in Japan has doubled.
• The percentage of women in corporate management has increased from 11% to 15%, and Japan’s female employment rate now exceeds America’s.
• Westerners should not essentialize Japan, as this will prevent them from offering the country outside perspectives that could help it solve its very real problems.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Actually, Japan has changed a lot

Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Chinese demographic data released earlier this week is extremely concerning: Birth rate is at 1.16, the lowest in their history and the second lowest in human history, and the biggest cities have birth rates below 0.7.
  • The population peaked last year, dropping by 800,000 people.
  • The Chinese government has admitted to overcounting the population by 100 million people over the past 40 years due to the one-child policy.
  • China is now the fastest aging society in human history due to a lack of people under 40.
  • China is highly dependent on global trade and imports for oil, food, and raw materials – making them vulnerable to disruptions in the global economy.
  • If current trends continue, the Chinese demography will dissolve in the next 8-10 years, and there is no economic theory for how an economy might function in this situation.

You can watch the full Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse on YouTube – Published January 18, 2023

It’s Time to Get Serious [Katherine Boyle, The Free Press]

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• Sam Bankman-Fried, a 30-year-old billionaire, was referred to as a “trading wunderkind” and “crypto wunderkind” in the press before his arrest in the Bahamas.
• Millennials and Gen Z have been treated as hapless children their entire lives, and this is reflected in their low marriage and home-ownership rates.
• Life expectancy is growing, but the average adult American man has a life expectancy of only 76 years, and SBF is 8 years away from that.
• The Boomer ascendancy has left us with a global gerontocracy and a languishing generation waiting in the wings.
• Delayed adulthood has had disastrous consequences for procreation in industrialized nations, and is at the root of declining fertility and population collapse.
• The prevailing wisdom in Western nations is that the ages of 18-29 are a time for extreme exploration, with no expectation for leadership.
• CEOs of companies listed on the S&P 500 are getting older and staying in their jobs longer, and 25% of Congress is over the age of 70.
• Anthony Fauci (82) isn’t retiring, and the sins of SBF will lead to even more extreme skepticism of ambitious young founders and leaders.

Published January 17, 2023.

Visit The Free Press to read Katherine Boyle’s original post It’s Time to Get Serious

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