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Demographics Part 4: The European Breakdown [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Europe can be broken into four pieces: France and the Scandinavian countries, Germany and its surrounding countries, Spain and Portugal, and the Orthodox world (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia).
  • France and the Scandinavian countries were late to industrialization, but they have proven far better at adapting to it due to their geographic advantage of having more “elbow room” and their pronatalist policies.
  • The Germano-centric countries have been part of an earlier wave of industrialization before WWII and are heavily urbanized, but there hasn’t been room for children for decades, resulting in an inverted population pyramid.
  • Spain and Portugal were very late to industrialization, but their bulge is in their 40s instead of nearing their 60s, giving them at least another 20 years before running out of working age adults.
  • Central European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic didn’t start to develop until the 1990s, and their bulge is in their 30s and 40s, giving them another 20-30 years.
  • The Orthodox world (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia) is so fundamentally different in terms of population numbers that it requires separate treatment.

You can watch the full Demographics Part 4: The European Breakdown on YouTube – Published January , 2023

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2023: Cheers to a New Year of Disruption [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • The world has undergone globalization, urbanization and demographic changes since 1945.
  • 30 years ago, the Cold War ended and countries previously excluded from the globalized system joined in, leading to increased growth.
  • Now, the majority of Baby Boomers are aging into mass retirement, leading to a decrease in markets, capital and working adults.
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Demographics Part 3: The Xer Cut [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • New Zealand and the United States are two of the few Advanced countries with a different demographic structure.
  • Both countries have a high proportion of young people, due to having good land for agriculture, settler societies with open immigration policies, and internal mobility options.
  • This “extra cut” of young people has resulted in a temporary hiccup in their demographics, before the Millennials mature and become capital rich.
  • This phenomenon is unique and unseen in other countries, which are instead aging into permanent demographic, economic and political decline.

You can watch the full Demographics Part 3: The Xer Cut by Peter Zeihan on YouTube – Published December 30, 2022

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Demographics Part 2: The Canadian Treadmill…Stops [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Canada has traditionally had an open door immigration policy, which has allowed them to address their demographic situation
  • The majority of immigrants come to Canada by plane, which means they tend to be older and not have as much time to pay into the system
  • This has resulted in migrants forming enclaves in Canada, as opposed to assimilating
  • The current immigration system has resulted in wealthy people coming to Canada and not taking jobs, which has distorted the housing market
  • The Trudeau government has amended ownership laws to reduce foreign ownership and the financial transfer of immigration
  • Canada is aging quickly and they must now find a new way to operate in order to solve their demographic issues.

Click HERE for original. Published December 28, 2022

Demographics Part 1: Understanding the Basics [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Population structures are key in shaping an economy’s success
  • Historically, population structures have been pyramid-shaped with few retirees at the top, and many children at the bottom
  • After World War II, child mortality has dropped and lifespans have increased, transforming population structures into a ‘chimney’-like shape
  • This ‘chimney’ economic model is characterized by a balanced number of children, young adults, mature adults, and retirees, leading to a steady, balanced economy
  • Now, many countries are facing an inverted pyramid population structure, where there are more people in the 50s, 40s, 30s, 20s, and teens
  • This inverted pyramid leads to a lack of consumption and production, and a need for countries to export and import goods
  • Countries can either increase their birth rate, or borrow other people’s kids through immigration policies in order to maintain a balanced population structure

Click HERE for original. Published December 27, 2022

Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise [Astral Codex Ten]

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  • The connections between the decline of the northeastern WASP aristocracy’s power, the emergence of meritocracy, and the hippie culture of the 60s are questionable and don’t stand up to historical scrutiny.
  • The displacement of the WASP aristocracy by a managerial upper-middle class predates the changes to university admissions that Brooks is discussing.
  • The idea of a clean break between WASP culture and bohemianism is inaccurate, as many young members of the WASP aristocracy adopted bohemian values.
  • The space race and nuclear weapons were more significant factors in the changing of the elite guard than university admissions.
  • The current ruling class is not resisting the movement to discriminate less against Asians, and the concept of ‘starving artists’ does not overlap with ‘Class X’.
  • Legacy admissions are roughly a third of Harvard students, which is fatal to the thesis of the book.
  • The meritocratic phase of the Ivy League schools lasted only a few years, from 1960 to around 1967, when full-tuition academic scholarships were eliminated.
  • This was a major blow to their selectivity, and by 1980, only the rich or the broke could afford Ivy League tuitions.
  • This has resulted in a situation where the ruling wealthy elites can shut out middle-class white and Asian males from wealth and power, and all but guarantee that those non-whites and females admitted to the Ivies will follow the party line.
  • The alternative hypothesis, that the Ivies suddenly became so good at picking smart people, is infeasible.
  • A hereditary aristocracy might have been good because it created arbitrary constraints on the number of elites, and provided a longer perspective than a pure meritocracy.
  • The nascent tech takeover of the elite was an attempt to combine the flaws of both systems, but it has done a better job combining the flaws than the positives.
  • An anecdote from a WASP party reveals that money was the primary topic of conversation, and that the wealthy were embarrassed about their sinecures.
  • Yale’s Jewish quota was eliminated in 1965, and the intellectual atmosphere of the campus changed immediately.
  • David Brooks’ 2000 book Bobos in Paradise popularized the term “Bobos” to describe the upper-middle class of the late 1990s, but the facts of the book have been called into question.
  • An alternative explanation for the current state of the US economy is that people have been inheriting money, leading to a sense of guilt and shame among beneficiaries.
  • The phenomenon of Bobos has been connected to Spiral Dynamics and Integral Theory, which suggest that the right and left poles of the political spectrum flip back and forth in a long-term secular cycle.

Click HERE for original. Published December 9, 2022

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