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Peter Zeihan – Is India the Next China?

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  • Strategic largesse of the United States: The US created the globalized system to allow the import and export of everything on a global basis without having to secure territory or sea lanes militarily.
  • Hyper financialization: The Chinese system is dependent upon the ongoing strategic largesse of the US, which is a very bad plan. The US has the ability to kill this overnight if it chooses to.
  • Demographics: India has slowly transitioned to a chimney demography, but the process started a lot later than it did in China and is proceeding at a slower speed. India has plenty of people under 40 to do consuming and still have kids.
  • Closeness to resources: India is closer to the resources it needs, such as food and minerals, than China is. India is also the first stop out of the Persian Gulf, so it is unlikely to ever have an energy crisis.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Is India the Next China?

Can India industrialize? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• India is the most important developing country in the world due to its sheer size and low income levels.
• India’s exports are mostly composed of low-value manufactured goods and raw materials/agricultural products.
• India’s services exports are 60% as large as its exports of goods.
• India needs to focus on labor-intensive manufacturing to move people out of agriculture and urbanize faster.
• The Modi government has made big strides in improving infrastructure, but education and literacy rates remain low.
• India has been trying to promote manufacturing through its “Make in India” initiative, but it has failed to gain much traction, possibly due to the Indian regulatory environment and business culture..
• The failure may be due to the focus on making things for the domestic market, which does not force companies to increase their productivity or develop new products.
• India has been trying to attract foreign direct investment through special economic zones (SEZs), but they have been mostly focused on service exports.
• Electronics hardware, semiconductors, and telecom equipment are the manufacturing sectors India should be focusing on, as they are perfect for globally integrated supply chains and offer plenty of opportunity for technological upgrading.
• India should also consider another round of land reform, as it can help small farmers own their own plots, increase agricultural output, and force landlords to become more entrepreneurial.
• Overall, India has the potential to become a major player in the global economy, and the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s have given Indians a taste of what their country can achieve.
• The article emphasizes the need for experimentation and learning from other countries in order to achieve economic development, with the goal of allowing the world’s largest country to take its rightful place among the industrialized nations.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Can India industrialize?

Chartbook #193 Indian nation-building, Modi and the Adani crisis

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• The Adani business empire has been rocked by global developments in the last week, including continuing losses on the market, the cancelation of the share sale, and moves by foreign investors to clarify their exposure to Adani.
• Mihir Sharma argues that Adani is a “national champion” and that the real fear is that they cannot do what they say they will.
• Arvind Subramanian and Ashoka Mody provide critical perspectives on India’s growth outlook.
• India’s digital infrastructure, known as the “India Stack”, has enabled the incorporation of hundreds of millions of people into the governmental machinery of the Indian state and a national market.
• India’s energy system has been heavily dependent on coal, but PM Modi has committed India to decarbonization by 2070.
• Both the Ambani and Adani groups have seized on the new agenda, promising to make India a hydrogen champion and “indigenising the entire supply chain”.
• Nation-building is the key boast of the Adani group, and it is that model that is at stake in this crisis.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #193 Indian nation-building, Modi and the Adani crisis

Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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• Twitter is enforcing its long-standing API rules, resulting in the shutdown of 3rd-party apps.
• Twitter revenue is reportedly down 40% year-over-year, and the company’s first interest payment is due at the end of the month.
• Microsoft is adding OpenAI’s viral AI bot ChatGPT to its Azure service, as part of its existing agreement with OpenAI.
• The Financial Times has a two-part series about Apple and China, discussing how Apple has been sending its top product designers and manufacturing design engineers to China, and how Apple is attempting to diversify its supply chain internationally while forging closer ties with mainland Chinese companies.
• India is not yet a viable alternative to China for Apple’s supply chain, as most operations are Final Assembly, Test and Pack (FATP) with components largely flown in from China.
• Taiwanese companies such as Pegatron and Foxconn are moving to India to assemble Apple products, but their suppliers are not.
• There is no existing supply chain in India, so they must import components from China.
• Some Chinese companies have been cleared to operate in India for Apple’s sake, potentially playing the same role as Taiwanese suppliers in China.

Published January 18, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China

 

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