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CategoryKyla Scanlon [Kyla’s Newsletter]

No-Landing and the Anti-gravity Economy [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By William McClain
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
February 17, 2023
271 views
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  • Retail Sales increased the most in TWO years in January, driven by food services and dining, motor vehicles and people spending in general.
  • For inflation, The CPI print came in kind of hot with core services and goods continuing to rise, mostly driven by shelter costs.
  • The labor market is still strong, with people looking for cars and homes again.
  • The worry now is that there is a new normal of inflation, that it will just hang out around 4-5%.
  • The economy is still moving and grooving, but dancing to the wrong song.
  • The market believes that the Fed will continue its hiking journey, but financial conditions have loosened.
  • People are still spending money on vacations, despite vacation inflation.
  • People are so sick of Things, they don’t care anymore, a phenomena known as the yoloconomy.
  • The market wants to keep dancing, but the Fed is moving towards them quickly, slowly wagging their finger in the no-no motion.
  • The Fed rate hikes have not moved through the economy yet, due to the design of the 30Y fixed-rate mortgage.
  • People are spending more money because of credit card debt and continued dip into savings.
  • People are exhausted and want to consume passively.
  • The economy is booming despite the Fed’s pressure because people are prioritizing profit over people.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post No-Landing and the Anti-gravity Economy

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Margin and Opportunity [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
February 9, 2023
277 views
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• Things are still weird in the economy, with speculative mania continuing despite the Fed raising rates.
• Bing could be the new Google as Microsoft goes into AI-Powered search.
• Adam Neumann came out to explain his new company, which is focused on community-owned apartments.
• The economy is a circuit board of people, interacting with each other and other things, money is the electric current.
• Emoconomics is the combination of feelings and expectations, fueled by data.
• George Soros and his work on reflexivity and Keynes and animal spirits show that if prices are bad, people feel bad and the economy feels bad.
• Fischer Black’s 1986 paper Noise states that the price level and rate of inflation are literally indeterminate and determined by expectations.
• Wealth inequality has only gotten worse, and the divergence in ‘vibes’ is demarcated by the widening gap between those that can shrug off inflation and those who cannot.
• The Fed’s primary tool to reset the vibes has been to raise rates, which has a direct impact on consumers.
• The combination of a lack of belief with a breaking macro environment has made it so we can talk ourselves into a downturn through tipping dominoes and feedback loops.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post

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TikTok’s CoreCore and the Federal Reserve [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
February 2, 2023
258 views
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• The article discusses the current balancing act of the Federal Reserve and the 6 things they must pay attention to.
• It also looks at the trend of corecore on TikTok, which is a reflection of the Internet on the Internet and a message against capitalism and income inequality.
• The Fed is charged with creating aspects of financial nihilism right now, and is looking at wages, labor market, and economic growth to slow inflation.
• Data points show a slowdown in manufacturing, labor market, and wages, but no recessionary warning signals.
• The Fed wants the market to take it seriously, but markets often lose the plot.
• The article concludes that people are the economy, and the Fed is paying attention to the right things.

Published February 2, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post TikTok’s CoreCore and the Federal Reserve

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Reversion to Reality: How Big Tech Impacts the Economy [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
January 26, 2023
285 views
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• Tech layoffs are happening in a horrible way, with no communication, locked badges, and broken email access.
• There are multiple reasons for the layoffs, including tech bloat, ad sales, higher interest rates, AI, and planned obsolescence.
• The layoffs are sending a message to the market that the end of profligacy is here.
• The economy is a force within itself, and it’s questionable if the Fed rate hikes have even worked their way through yet.
• We need to evolve from focusing on bits to refocusing on atoms.
• We need to exercise empathy and compassion to understand the pain of others and help them.
• Big Tech layoffs can feel removed from reality, but we must strive to have perspective and care for those affected.
• Empathy and compassion are key to understanding and helping those in need.
• Mary Oliver and Barbara Alice Mann offer advice on how to teach children to appreciate the world and be devoted to it.
• U.S. fiscal stimulus has caused excess inflation, and Lael Brainard is a top contender for the National Economic Council.

Published January 26, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post Reversion to Reality: How Big Tech Impacts the Economy

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What Even is a “Mild” Recession? [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
January 19, 2023
262 views
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• Everyone is anticipating a recession, but no one knows when or how it will come.
• The consensus is that it will be a mild recession, like a splinter in your finger – something annoying but manageable.
• The Scoville test for the economy is an imprecise measurement based on human subjectivity.
• Data points such as industrial production falling, retail sales falling, and the Empire manufacturing index falling to its lowest level since May 2020 are all signs of a slowdown in the economy.
• The Fed is unlikely to budge despite the caution signs, and the worry is that they will go too hard.
• On the other hand, there are some inflationary pockets such as China reopening, labor market gaps, and bond investors going hog wild for bonds.
• It will be a delicate balance between the Fed, the labor market, consumer health, and housing.
• There is a general level of acceptance that rugged individualism distorts how we think about the economy, and if we can create a world where people are taken care of, it will be net positive for everyone.
• Pepsi CEO believes labor costs will be the source of inflation, rather than commodities
• Labor market is expected to remain tight
• This is due to the recent increase in minimum wage and providing insurance to workers who work 24 hours/week

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post What Even is a “Mild” Recession?

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The Eggconomy [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
January 12, 2023
176 views
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• Eggs are expensive right now, but they are actually less expensive than they were – according to Brighton Capital, the wholesale price for large conventional eggs has fallen from $5.10/dozen to $4.63.
• The eggconomy is emblematic of the broader economy – driven by the laws of supply and demand, and the hen/human ratio is at a 15-year low.
• The Federal Reserve is focused on a few things within their 2% inflation target – Fed cred, Fed recession goals, Fed beef, and 2% inflation.
• A soft landing would be when vacancies can decline substantially taking pressure off inflation without driving unemployment way up.
• The housing market is bonkers – housing inflation, consumers freaking out, and rents slowing down.
• Flight delays due to an ancient piece of technology is emblematic of a lot of American infrastructure.
• The debt ceiling debate is a stupid bargaining chip in a larger stupid circus.
• The economy is a fragile piece of technology that needs to be carefully managed.
• Hope is an ax you break down doors with in an emergency – it calls for action and is impossible without it.

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

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The Fed is Hiking Up That Mountain [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
January 5, 2023
265 views
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• The Fed is approaching economic switchbacks, which could make the overall endeavor of a soft landing easier, but could also make the climb more difficult if ignored.
• The Fed wants to slow down the labor market, but is cognizant of the potential for an unwarranted easing in financial conditions.
• Complacency is pervasive in the labor market, with workers not being respected and incentives leading to less disruption.
• The Fed is trying to bring the labor market back into balance, but there is a need for central bankers to not always rely solely on their econometric models and instead throw in some human nature common sense.
• Albert Camus said it best when he said “real generosity toward the future lies in giving all to the present.”

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

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Mind the Cup [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
December 29, 2022
288 views
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• This year was a year of uncertainty, with many systems being fragile and the promise of “This is How It Will Be” being broken.
• The Federal Reserve’s job is to manage expectations and to make sure that inflation expectations do not become unanchored.
• Causes of inflation include deglobalization, tightness in labor markets, sky high energy and commodity prices, WFH trends, and supply bottlenecks.
• The Fed’s tools are ambiguous in the context of real world narrative, and their treatment plan should be bolstered by additional toolsets.
• On a micro level, uncertainty can be a fuel as we navigate new normals, and individual actions are what shape the world that we live in.
• Love is an action, a way that we exist in the world rather than a relationship, and this year was a year to recognize that the world does react to us.

Published December 29, 2022. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

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2022 was Really Weird [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
December 22, 2022
268 views
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• This year has been a gift, with many opportunities for growth and learning.
• Three quotes that summarize the year:
– “It is easier to fool a man than to convince him he has be fooled” – Mark Twain
– “Panics do not destroy capital. They merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works” -John Mills
– “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.” – Carl Sagan
• Crypto: The web3 spectacle was far removed from reality, and the land war in Europe and worries over food and energy resources caused the crypto world to come crumbling down.
• Commodities: Tech is the new FAANG, and as resources get cheaper, we find progressively dumber uses of them.
• The Federal Reserve: Expectations are all that matter, and the Fed is facing the verifiable metrics slowing inflation contrasted against the heavy burden of Ego.
• Venture Capital: The incentives are misaligned, and the focus is on venture funds and founders, not on building enduring companies.
• Housing: Mortgage rates have skyrocketed, and private equity firms are nosing their way into mobile home parks, nursing homes, and student housing. Housing is in a deep recession, and weakness i1n housing is a core part of recessions.
• 2022 was a year of economic and human behavior changes.
• The economy was in flux, with bonds and stocks moving together, market fundamentalism becoming dominant, and an over-reliance on tech and finance layoffs.
• Human behavior was characterized by anger, doomerism, and a lack of cooperation.
• There was a sense of fragmentation, with a monoculture emerging and a focus on profit and growth over creativity and expression.
• People were degraded to the status of mere consumers, and there was a deep sense of nihilism in Gen Z.
• The article calls for reconnection and understanding, and for people to recognize their passions and create a living world.

Published December 22, 2022. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

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A Non-Zero Interest Rate World [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
December 17, 2022
272 views
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• The Fed is trying to manage the economy, but the market is starting to rebel against them.
• The market thinks rate cuts are likely relatively soon, whereas the Fed is like “well hm, no, we plan to keep hiking”.
• There is an idea in some corners of the tech world that only tech people can be executors of Goodness and that anything that stops tech people from doing what they want is Very Bad.
• We have started to see softer prints in inflation, inflation expectations ticking down, supply chains easing, and a loosening in the labor market in quits.
• The Fed is really focused on the labor market via “Things We Have To Spend Money on To Stay Alive”, which is an inflation category.
• SBF was charged with a litany of things, including “Wire Fraud, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Securities Fraud, Securities Fraud Conspiracy and Money Laundering”.
• Empathy is a function of understanding the emotions of others, but markets don’t really price this. It requires looking beyond individual forces of supply and demand.
• Vincent Van Gogh quote: “Many people seem to think it foolish, even superstitious, to believe that the world could still change for the better. And it is true that in winter it is sometimes so bitingly cold that one is tempted to say, ‘What do I care if there is a summer; its warmth is no help to me now.’ Yes, evil often seems to surpass good. But then, in spite of us, and without our permission, there comes at last an end to the bitter frosts. One morning the wind turns, and there is a thaw. And so I must still have hope.”

Published December 17, 2022. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

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