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Can India industrialize? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

C

• India is the most important developing country in the world due to its sheer size and low income levels.
• India’s exports are mostly composed of low-value manufactured goods and raw materials/agricultural products.
• India’s services exports are 60% as large as its exports of goods.
• India needs to focus on labor-intensive manufacturing to move people out of agriculture and urbanize faster.
• The Modi government has made big strides in improving infrastructure, but education and literacy rates remain low.
• India has been trying to promote manufacturing through its “Make in India” initiative, but it has failed to gain much traction, possibly due to the Indian regulatory environment and business culture..
• The failure may be due to the focus on making things for the domestic market, which does not force companies to increase their productivity or develop new products.
• India has been trying to attract foreign direct investment through special economic zones (SEZs), but they have been mostly focused on service exports.
• Electronics hardware, semiconductors, and telecom equipment are the manufacturing sectors India should be focusing on, as they are perfect for globally integrated supply chains and offer plenty of opportunity for technological upgrading.
• India should also consider another round of land reform, as it can help small farmers own their own plots, increase agricultural output, and force landlords to become more entrepreneurial.
• Overall, India has the potential to become a major player in the global economy, and the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s have given Indians a taste of what their country can achieve.
• The article emphasizes the need for experimentation and learning from other countries in order to achieve economic development, with the goal of allowing the world’s largest country to take its rightful place among the industrialized nations.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Can India industrialize?

Chartbook #193 Indian nation-building, Modi and the Adani crisis

C

• The Adani business empire has been rocked by global developments in the last week, including continuing losses on the market, the cancelation of the share sale, and moves by foreign investors to clarify their exposure to Adani.
• Mihir Sharma argues that Adani is a “national champion” and that the real fear is that they cannot do what they say they will.
• Arvind Subramanian and Ashoka Mody provide critical perspectives on India’s growth outlook.
• India’s digital infrastructure, known as the “India Stack”, has enabled the incorporation of hundreds of millions of people into the governmental machinery of the Indian state and a national market.
• India’s energy system has been heavily dependent on coal, but PM Modi has committed India to decarbonization by 2070.
• Both the Ambani and Adani groups have seized on the new agenda, promising to make India a hydrogen champion and “indigenising the entire supply chain”.
• Nation-building is the key boast of the Adani group, and it is that model that is at stake in this crisis.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #193 Indian nation-building, Modi and the Adani crisis

The Poland/Malaysia model [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Poland and Malaysia have both achieved impressive economic growth in recent decades, despite relying heavily on foreign direct investment.
• Both countries have built up world-class manufacturing sectors, with electronics and automotive goods forming the backbone of their exports.
• Malaysia has done this by creating special economic zones and offering incentives to foreign companies to invest there, while Poland has benefited from its proximity to Europe and its accession to the EU.
• Both countries have yet to move into higher-value-added activities, and are struggling to upgrade their productivity levels.
• Ha-Joon Chang and other industrial policy fans are suspicious of FDI due to potential crowding out of domestic companies, stunting of local growth, and potential for property value bubbles and crashes.
• Poland and Malaysia may now be running into this problem, with McKinsey citing Poland’s need to develop or acquire strong brands and Malaysia’s failure to build domestic champions.
• Poor countries may benefit from an FDI-centric strategy as it is simple and straightforward, and could potentially lead to escaping poverty.
• Poland and Malaysia may have found the secret to getting upper-middle-class quick, rather than getting rich quick.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

Ghana, you were doing so well! [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

G
  • Ghana recently defaulted on most of its external debt and is experiencing high inflation, leading to an economic crisis.
  • Ghana is an important country for African development, as it is one of the leading candidates to become the “first mover” in the region.
  • The crisis was caused by a rapid depreciation of the Ghanaian currency, the cedi, which made it harder to afford imports like food and fuel.
  • Ghana’s government borrowed a lot of external debt over the past 15 years, which raised government debt to about 100% of GDP.
  • Ghana’s inflation is not due to an attempt to pay off external debt by printing local currency, but rather due to businesspeople expecting the government to eventually print money to pay off its debt.
  • Ghana’s government wisely defaulted on its debt, drastically lowering the country’s overall government debt burden and making it easier to get a bailout from the IMF.

Click HERE for original. Published December 19, 2022

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