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Margin and Opportunity [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

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• Things are still weird in the economy, with speculative mania continuing despite the Fed raising rates.
• Bing could be the new Google as Microsoft goes into AI-Powered search.
• Adam Neumann came out to explain his new company, which is focused on community-owned apartments.
• The economy is a circuit board of people, interacting with each other and other things, money is the electric current.
• Emoconomics is the combination of feelings and expectations, fueled by data.
• George Soros and his work on reflexivity and Keynes and animal spirits show that if prices are bad, people feel bad and the economy feels bad.
• Fischer Black’s 1986 paper Noise states that the price level and rate of inflation are literally indeterminate and determined by expectations.
• Wealth inequality has only gotten worse, and the divergence in ‘vibes’ is demarcated by the widening gap between those that can shrug off inflation and those who cannot.
• The Fed’s primary tool to reset the vibes has been to raise rates, which has a direct impact on consumers.
• The combination of a lack of belief with a breaking macro environment has made it so we can talk ourselves into a downturn through tipping dominoes and feedback loops.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post

Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

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• China’s real estate sector is facing a crisis, with developers defaulting on bonds and a large backlog of troubled projects.
• The construction boom has been the main driver of China’s unbalanced, investment-heavy, consumption-poor growth.
• In the late 1990s, real estate accounted for 8% of GDP, but by 2021 it had risen to 25%.
• In a single generation, China has built enough homes to house a billion people.
• The IMF report shows the Chinese authorities in a relatively calm mood, but Western observers are skeptical.
• Beijing has shifted from a restrictive and deflationary course to one of re-stimulating the real estate economy.
• A key challenge to restoring confidence is the large backlog of partially built housing.
• To stabilize the Chinese real estate market, a commitment of 5% of GDP is needed.
• If Beijing succeeds in managing the fallout, it would be an example of macro-prudential economic management on a world historic scale.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

Why Paul Ehrlich got everything wrong [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Paul Ehrlich’s predictions in The Population Bomb were spectacularly wrong, but it is important to recognize that his warnings about environmental catastrophes should still be taken seriously.
• Ehrlich’s predictions were wrong due to countermeasures and adaptations that acted as a dampening force, slowing down the trend lines before catastrophe hits.
• These countermeasures and adaptations included the Green Revolution, lower fertility rates, and human ingenuity.
• The lesson from Ehrlich’s mistakes is that stabilization of global food supply was achieved via technological innovations by concerned scientists, which were then adopted by concerned governments.
• Paul Ehrlich’s predictions of population and resource scarcity in the late 1960s and 1970s have been echoed by degrowth advocates in the late 2010s and 2020s.
• Degrowth advocates often rely on aggregate measures of resource use and trend extrapolation, which are flawed metrics.
• Environmental catastrophes are a real possibility, and it would be dangerous to ignore the people warning about them.
• Alarmism about environmental catastrophes may be a useful counterweight to human callousness towards non-human life, and may help to keep habitat destruction in the public consciousness.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

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