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February 24, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By William McClain
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
February 27, 2023
248 views
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  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned the United Nations Security Council Ministerial Meeting on Ukraine Sovereignty and Russian Accountability one year and one week ago that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine.
  • Seven days later, Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
  • Russia has killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian men, women, and children; uprooted more than 13 million people from their homes; destroyed more than half of the country’s energy grid; bombed more than 700 hospitals, 2,600 schools; and abducted at least 6,000 Ukrainian children.
  • The world community has come together to stand behind Ukraine and the principles of the United Nations Charter that make all countries safer and more secure.
  • Any peace must honor Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty, which Putin has rejected.
  • The Biden administration today announced $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine, while the G7 has increased its 2023 support for Ukraine to $39 billion.
  • Russia’s deputy chair of security council, former president Dmitry Medvedev, said today that Russia planned to “push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland.”
  • Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky said: “Victory will be inevitable. I am certain there will be victory.”

Published February 25, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 24, 2023

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Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War: Operational Updates [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 23, 2023
200 views
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  • Most important factor: Weather continues to be warm in Kiev, not cold enough to freeze the ground.
  • Ukraine’s challenge: Ukraine has fewer people than Russia and must inflict high casualty ratios to be victorious.
  • Russia’s perspective: This war is a battle for Russia’s survival, and they will not stop.
  • Ukrainian strategy: The only way for Ukraine to emerge victorious is to kill so many Russian soldiers that the Russian front collapses.
  • Russian tactics: Wagner group has been using convicts in human wave tactics, throwing wave after wave of humans at Ukraine until weather changes or logistics shifts.
  • Estimations: Minimum deaths in the war so far in the Russian side is 120,000 and estimates for Russian deaths in the battle specifically is somewhere between 10 and 40,000.
  • Upcoming months: Russians will move more troops into the front and with the second mobilization underway, they will be badly led, equipped, supplied, and trained.
  • Ukrainian strategy: Ukraine needs to free up the conflict into a war of movement, allowing tanks and artillery to do an offensive where Russians can’t resist or maneuver.

Published February 23, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War: Operational Updates

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Peter Zeihan – Putin Announces Withdrawal From START Treaty [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 22, 2023
269 views
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  • Russia has now formally withdrawn from the START Treaty – The START Treaty is the core of the entire disarmament and non-proliferation regime, and the basis for the entire American-Russian diplomatic relationship.
  • Putin has stated his intention to not back down from the war in Ukraine – Despite the fact that it is not allowed under international law, Putin has justified the war as being for “ancestral lands”.
  • The Western world is unified in their stance against Russia – The Munich Security Conference has shown a strong stance from the EU, with Ursula vandale and the EU’s foreign policy Chief both making strong statements.

Published February 22, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Putin Announces Withdrawal From START Treaty

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Peter Zeihan – US Policy: Russia Gets Blacklisted [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 22, 2023
282 views
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  • U.S President Joe Biden’s Trip to Kiev: President Biden made a trip to Kiev in the midst of an air raid, demonstrating a clear commitment to the Ukrainian cause.
  • Accusation of Crimes Against Humanity: Vice President Kamala Harris accused the Russian government of crimes against humanity, a term not used lightly.
  • Torture Camps: Over 70 torture camps have been identified, with many more in Russian-occupied territories.
  • Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s Announcement: Secretary of State Blinken announced that the Chinese are considering providing lethal aid and ammunition to the Russians.
  • Meltdown in Relations with China: Relations with China are reaching a meltdown, with the Chinese unable to make cohesive decisions and implement them across their system.
  • Strict American Sanctions: If the Chinese continue on this path, the U.S will enforce strict sanctions, including financial sanctions with sharply limited access to the US dollar.

Published February 21, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – US Policy: Russia Gets Blacklisted

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Peter Zeihan – The Wagner Group: Russia’s Flunkies [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 22, 2023
286 views
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  • Wagner: A Russian paramilitary group controlled by a man named Pragueism and provides the Russian government with plausible deniability on military activities.
  • Ukraine War: Wagner has been involved in Battle of Bakfit with a minimum of 10,000 casualties and potentially up to 40,000.
  • Recruitment: Wagner recruits from former military officers and prisons, however with the Russian military expanding there is no longer a pool of skilled military recruits for Wagner to pull from.
  • Implications: The implications for the Ukraine war are limited, however elsewhere in the world the implications are significant as the Kremlin has been using Wagner to generate influence in Africa. If Wagner cannot maintain its current staffing levels, it is only a matter of time before one country decides that Wagner is more trouble than it’s worth.

Published February 20, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Wagner Group: Russia’s Flunkies

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The War in Ukraine in Eight Photos [Peter Savodnik, The Free Press]

By William McClain
In [The Free Press]
February 22, 2023
303 views
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  • Yulia (center), a teacher, signed up as a soldier when war broke out in Ukraine in February 2022. This conflict has caused 60,000 Russian casualties and 100,000 Ukrainian casualties, including 400 children, and has forced the West to realize that the “end of history” is a fantasy. The U.S. has funneled $68 billion in military hardware and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
  • Award-winning photographer Lynsey Addario has been covering the Ukrainian conflict, despite having been kidnapped twice. She believes that journalists should hold people like Putin accountable for his crimes, and to provide a historical record for viewers to see and understand what is happening.
  • Addario has captured searing images of the war, such as a sheared off apartment building from a missile strike, a woman crying with a rifle before being transferred to a base, a family killed by shrapnel while fleeing a bridge, Ukrainian drone team reviewing kills, a woman cradling her baby in a moldy shelter basement, a babushka celebrating a Ukrainian soldier, and a man with a bloody and bruised face from a 2,000-pound warhead missile strike.
  • Addario has had many close calls in Ukraine, and the people there have come to realize that there are no limits to the evil they are facing. Now the feeling is that there is no going back.

Published February 22, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Peter Savodnik’s original post The War in Ukraine in Eight Photos

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Biden’s Hope vs. Putin’s Lies [Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 22, 2023
223 views
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  • Vladimir Putin: Delivered a two-hour speech to a room of elite Russians, warning of betrayal of Russia and no sympathy for those who have lost money due to Western sanctions.
  • Joe Biden: Spoke outdoors in Warsaw to a crowd of Poles and expat Americans, using broad, universal, and inclusive language to inspire, persuade, and explain.
  • Putin: Repeated lies he has told before, warning those in the room and scaring outsiders with nuclear treaty withdrawal.
  • Biden: Offered a hope of freedom and democracy, setting a high bar for himself, his administration, and the coalition of democracies.

Published February 21, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Anne Applebaum’s original post Biden’s Hope vs. Putin’s Lies

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February 20, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By William McClain
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
February 22, 2023
227 views
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  • Biden’s Visit to Kyiv: President Joe Biden made a five-hour visit to Kyiv, Ukraine, to pledge the US’s “unwavering and unflagging commitment” to Ukraine’s sovereignty, democracy, and territorial integrity. The US notified Russia of the visit, causing an MiG-30 to fly from Belarus during the visit, triggering air raid sirens.
  • Russia’s Failed Invasion: A year ago, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese president Xi Jinping pledged a partnership with “no limits” to counter US global leadership. On February 24, 2022, Russian tanks rolled across the border into Ukraine, but have since lost half of the territory they once occupied.
  • Biden’s Coalition: Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a coalition together and presented a united front with Zelensky and allies and partners in defense of democracy. Biden pledged another $460 million in aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that US support for the country is bipartisan.
  • Marjorie Taylor Greene: Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) called for dividing the nation, echoing the 1850s elite southern enslavers who resented majority rule. Former representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) reminded Greene that secession is unconstitutional.
  • Munich Security Conference Report: The Munich Security Conference reported that the Russian war on Ukraine is a war of authoritarianism on a rules-based international order. Vice President Kamala Harris said the US had determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity.
  • Fox News Channel Propaganda: Fox News Channel personalities are trying to spin Biden’s visit to Ukraine as proof that he doesn’t care about the train derailment in Ohio, acting as a propaganda outlet for Trump. A filing in Dominion Voter Systems’ lawsuit against FNC revealed last week that they knowingly lied to their viewers about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election.
  • Putin’s Speech: Putin is scheduled to address the Russian Federal Assembly tomorrow. Russian forces have taken severe losses in their recent stalled offensive in eastern Ukraine near Bakhmut. Biden’s speech in Poland will follow later in the day.

Published February 21, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 20, 2023

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Introducing a Sunday Series from Douglas Murray: Things Worth Remembering [Douglas Murray, The Free Press]

By William McClain
In [The Free Press]
February 20, 2023
274 views
I
  • Things Worth Remembering is a column dedicated to exploring the importance of committing literary treasures to memory.
  • Boris Pasternak’s inspiring story of standing up to Stalin’s regime by reciting Shakespeare’s Sonnet 30 highlights the power of memorization and its ability to resist oppression.
  • George Steiner was a polymath and scholar who emphasized the value of memory and inspired Douglas Murray to share the story of Pasternak and Sonnet 30.
  • Shakespeare’s Sonnet 30 is a timeless piece of literature that speaks to the collective experience of loss and grief and highlights the power of memory.

Published February 19, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Douglas Murray’s original post Introducing a Sunday Series from Douglas Murray: Things Worth Remembering

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Russia’s New Friends [Joseph Politano, Apricitas Economics]

By William McClain
In Joseph Politano [Apricitas Economics]
February 20, 2023
301 views
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  • The bulk of the military response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine came in the form of arms, equipment and training for Ukrainian troops. This was to help them better resist the Russian invasion and largely prevent the direct involvement of armed forces in open combat with Russia to avoid escalating the conflict.
  • The economic sanctions had to hit Russia’s economy hard to deter further aggression but preserve Russian oil and gas exports essential for global energy consumption. The Allies leveraged their economic strength of high-tech manufactured goods and international finance to cut Russia off from critical imports and sources of credit/liquidity.
  • The strategy worked: Russian businesses and markets were roiled by the initial round of financial sanctions and Russian industrial output suffered. This year the Russian economy entered a significant recession with GDP dropping 3.7%.
  • The squeeze on Russia’s industrial base is easing. Cut off from trade with high-income democracies, Russia has been making new friends and new trading partners which has resulted in an increase in total Russian imports.
  • The rising Russia-China Trade Relationship was always the obvious first choice for Russia to turn to when the Allies began implementing sanctions. China can supply Russia with cars, phones, computers and machinery and Russia can supply China with oil and natural gas.
  • Turkey is another source of Russian imports. Exports to Russia are up 120% in the last year, imports from Russia remain elevated and there is a surge in nonmonetary gold imports.
  • To achieve a just peace, further sanctions may be necessary. This could include pressure on Turkey, a NATO member, and China, already a frequent target of sanctions, to limit their trade with Russia.
  • Subscribe now! To receive new posts on economic data analysis, consider subscribing.

Published February 18, 2023
Visit Apricitas Economics to read Joseph Politano’s original post Russia’s New Friends

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