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Radio Atlantic: This Is Not Your Parents’ Cold War [Kevin Townsend, The Atlantic]

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  • Cold War Fears: During the Cold War, Western governments feared that a move by the Kremlin would lead to escalation – first to a world war and perhaps even to a nuclear conflict.
  • Russia Invades Ukraine: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is nearly a year old and the Ukrainians are holding on, with Russia taking immense casualties and material losses.
  • Tom Nichols’ Advice: Tom Nichols, an expert on nuclear weapons and the Cold War, counsels Americans not to be obsessed with nuclear escalation, but to be aware of the possibilities for accidents and miscalculations.
  • Cuban Missile Crisis: The Cuban missile crisis in October 1962 was the first big crisis that Americans had to think about the existential threat of nuclear weapons.
  • 1983 – Year We Almost Didn’t Make It: 1983 was an incredibly tense year, with the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union having completely broken down. It felt like war was inevitable.
  • Pop Culture Reflection: Nuclear weapons were soaked into our popular culture in the ’50s, ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s. Movies, music, and TV put this sense of threat into the minds of ordinary Americans.
  • Cold War Ends Quickly: Reagan and Gorbachev jointly declared in 1985 that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought, leading to a quick end to the Cold War.
  • The Cold War Ended Quickly – The Cold War ended quickly between 1983-1986, creating a false sense of security in later generations.
  • An Example of Nuclear Danger Post-Cold War – In 1995, Norway launched a scientific satellite on top of a missile, causing the Russian defense people to come to President Boris Yeltsin and suggest it may have been a NATO attack.
  • The Current Nuclear Situation – Currently, the United States and the Russian Federation each have about 1,500 nuclear weapons deployed and ready to go.
  • The Danger of Putin’s Regime – Putin’s mafia state is uniquely dangerous as he has convinced himself that he is some kind of great world historical figure who is going to reestablish this Christian Slavic empire.
  • Russia’s Conventional Weakness – Russia is now the weaker conventional power and is now the one saying, “If things go really badly for us and we’re losing, we reserve the right to use nuclear weapons”.
  • The Front Line of the Fight for Civilization – The front line of the fight for civilization is in Ukraine, and it’s imperative that Americans think about this problem and support Ukraine in this fight.
  • The Right Way To Think About This – The right way to think about this is to be engaged and aware, but not to be panicked or become consumed by fear as it is bad for democracy’s ability to make decisions.

Published February 17, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Kevin Townsend’s original post Radio Atlantic: This Is Not Your Parents’ Cold War

Peter Zeihan – Next on the Chopping Block: Moldova [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Moldova is a small country located between the Carpathian Mountains and the Black Sea that has been used as a training ground for Russian intelligence agencies.
  • The Russians have used their political influence in the country to engineer the fall of the government.
  • Whoever controls Moldova has been able to determine which way the armies can flow.
  • The Eastern edge of Moldova, called Transnistra, declared independence in 1992 with Russian sponsorship and has maintained independence ever since.
  • Russia has maintained a strong presence in the country and has worked to make sure that the government of Moldova is as non-functional as possible.
  • During the Ukraine war, Russia has tried to use Moldova as a wedge either to manipulate refugees coming out of Ukraine or to launch missiles into Ukrainian targets.
  • If Ukraine falls, Moldova is the next target.
  • If Ukraine wins, Ukrainian or NATO military action against the Russian troops in Transnistra could fold Moldova into the European and the NATO family of countries.

Published February 15, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Next on the Chopping Block: Moldova

Peter Zeihan – How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry? [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Russian oil production – 500,000 barrels/day, 1/2 of 1% of global production, 10% of Russian exports
  • Permafrost – Damage to wells takes 30 years to repair, without oil services firms
  • European oil & refined products ban – Reduces demand for Russian product, break-even price for Russian crude is between $40 & $60/barrel
  • Friday seminar – Covers economic impacts of war one year out, including oil & disruptions, natural gas, raw Commodities, Agriculture, & entire supply chain

Published February 14, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry?

Ukraine Has the Battlefield Edge [Gil Barndollar, The Atlantic]

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• Russia mobilized 300,000 reservists in September to stabilize its front as winter set in.
• Despite recent successes in Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukrainian leaders are now warning that a new Russian offensive is imminent.
• Russian reservists are mostly men who previously served as one-year conscripts, with an average age of 35.
• Russian troops have demonstrated a deficit of discipline, making them vulnerable to determined Ukrainian defenders.
• Ukrainian success has come down to skillful use of modern weapons against this incompetent and demoralized enemy.
• U.S. training and advising have been almost as significant as the hardware in Ukraine’s success.
• Deteriorating morale on the front lines and at home is mutually reinforcing, making it harder for Russia to fill its penal battalions.
• Putin’s reluctance to mobilize is driven by fear of a political backlash to the call-up.
• Ukraine appears to have lost the manpower advantage, but Russia’s increased numbers are unlikely to overcome Ukrainian will and skill.

Published February 12, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Gil Barndollar’s original post Ukraine Has the Battlefield Edge

Europe has to stand against Russia [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Russia has regained the initiative in the war in Ukraine, with a shift in tactics to infantry and artillery barrages, and a mobilization of 300,000 troops.
• Russia’s imperialistic ambitions are clear, with a desire to regain control over former USSR republics, former Warsaw Pact countries, and even parts of Germany.
• Ukraine needs sustained outside help to prevail against Russia’s larger population and resources.
• The U.S. is an unreliable partner against Russia, with support for Ukraine becoming a culture-war wedge issue, and private contractors not always seeing eye to eye with the U.S. government.
• Europe must unite and prepare itself to prevail in a long stand-off with the aggressive empire next door.
• The U.S. is increasingly focusing its attention on Asia, not Europe, and this could weaken its ability to defend Europe from Russia.
• Europe is more powerful than Russia in terms of population, manufacturing output, and economic dependence.
• Europe has already adapted to the cutoffs of Russian gas and oil, and can continue to do so.
• Europe must increase its defense spending, put aside internal squabbles, and recognize that it is on the side of the “good guys” in order to defend itself against Russia.
• The U.S. stabilized Europe in the 20th century, but now Europe must prove that it can defend its own freedom.

Published February 12, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Europe has to stand against Russia

Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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Russia has always sought to expand their territory to gain buffer space, reach geographic barriers, and forward position their forces.
Ukraine is not an access point to Russia‘s most important territories, Romania and Poland.
If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, they will eventually come for Romania and Poland, and will use every tool available, including nuclear weapons.
If Ukraine succeeds, they must cross the border into Russia to disrupt Logistics and prevent industrial plant from contributing to the war effort.
• The war will become more intense before it is resolved and Russia has never backed down from a war without suffering mass casualties.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started

Chartbook #195: How to pay for Putin’s war?Russia’s technocrats torn between defense of the austerity status quo and national mobilization. [Adam Tooze, Chartbook]

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• The Russian economy emerged from the first shock of the war and sanctions in 2022 far better than many expected, with a fall in GDP of just 2.2%.
• Putin’s reaction was to crow that the experts were wrong, but the underlying issue is economic management.
• The track record of stability clocked up by Putin’s regime comes at a heavy price in terms of macroeconomic imbalance.
• Putin’s regime has increasingly resorted to “War Keynesianism”, with large salary payments to soldiers propping up incomes and building a constituency loyal to the regime.
• Russia must manage the bottlenecks imposed by sanctions and ensure that aggregate demand continues to bubble along.
• The truce between the war economists and the conservative advocates of continuity as personified by Nabiullina has held, but it will be tested in 2023.
• The budget deficit is 1.8 trillion RUB (1.2% of GDP) and liquid assets in the National Welfare Fund amount to 4% of GDP.

Published February 8, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #195: How to pay for Putin’s war?Russia’s technocrats torn between defense of the austerity status quo and national mobilization.

The Two Stalingrads [Elliot Ackerman, The Atlantic]

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• The article discusses the legacy of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Second World War, and how it is shared by both Russia and Ukraine.
• It recounts the story of three Ukrainian veterans of the Soviet war in Afghanistan who presented the author with a lapel pin from the Union of Veterans of Afghanistan.
• It references the work of Vasily Grossman, a Ukrainian Soviet Jew, and his 1942 book, *The People Immortal*, which chronicles the Red Army’s retreat through Ukraine in the months after the German invasion on June 22, 1941.
• It compares the Nazi military machine to the Russian-invasion force in Ukraine, and discusses the societal sterility associated with fascism in Russia today.
• It draws parallels between the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Grossman, both of whom understand the importance of narrative in war.
• It concludes by suggesting that the title of Grossman’s book, *The People Immortal*, is a reference to the people of Ukraine and Russia, whose blood has been mixed together in life and death.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Elliot Ackerman’s original post The Two Stalingrads

This Is Not 1943 [George Packer, The Atlantic]

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• Vladimir Putin visited Stalingrad to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
• Putin’s purpose was to connect the past war to the present one, and to rouse Russian pride and warn his enemies of their coming doom.
• Putin’s actions are compared to those of Adolf Hitler in 1938, when he annexed Austria and the Sudetenland.
• Putin’s lies are compared to Hitler’s, and the article suggests that Putin is using propaganda as projection to immunize himself from having a more plausible charge flung at him.
• The article suggests that Germany’s decision to send tanks to Ukraine is part of their long reckoning with their crimes.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read George Packer’s original post This Is Not 1943

Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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Processing is an energyintensive process which is usually done in multiple steps and in different facilities.
China is the largest producer of raw and finished steel due to subsidies and lowinterest loans.
• There are already plenty of social and technological anti-bot filters, and fear of backlash will limit adoption.
Russia imports raw materials, uses their cheap power and coal to process and exports the valueadded materials.
The world is facing a crisis due to the economic, demographic and security issues in China and Russia.
We need to prepare for a system where materials from these two countries face a significant decrease in production.
• It suggests that chatbots could be used to trick people into believing they are talking to a real person.
February 17th webinar explores the economic implications of the Ukraine war and Russian minerals processing.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild

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