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CategoryPeter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]

Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 9, 2023
270 views
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• Russia has always sought to expand their territory to gain buffer space, reach geographic barriers, and forward position their forces.
• Ukraine is not an access point to Russia‘s most important territories, Romania and Poland.
• If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, they will eventually come for Romania and Poland, and will use every tool available, including nuclear weapons.
• If Ukraine succeeds, they must cross the border into Russia to disrupt Logistics and prevent industrial plant from contributing to the war effort.
• The war will become more intense before it is resolved and Russia has never backed down from a war without suffering mass casualties.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started

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Geopolitical Impact of Natural Disasters: Ice Storm Edition [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 8, 2023
204 views
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• Michael Navrystery is the Director of Analysis at Signing Geopolitics based out of Austin, Texas
• Recent cold weather has caused a significant ice storm leading to tree limbs falling down around the city
• Utility poles, cables, coatings, and transformers are all part of the global supply chain coming from various sources
• Copper ore is primarily produced out of Chile with wires made in the US, Germany, or Japan; coatings come from the Gulf Coast
• With the cold weather in Texas in Feb 2021, the chemicals industry faced delays of months to a year
• Transformers are made of steel and other technical components with the largest exporter being China
• With EU and China upheaval, U.S. sourcing managers face higher costs, longer lead times, and greater delays
• Solutions will take time and capital to restore and move components to North America, with increased investment in the industry necessary to eliminate risk.

Published February 8, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Geopolitical Impact of Natural Disasters: Ice Storm Edition

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Peter Zeihan – Earthquakes Wreak Havoc on Turkey and Syria [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 7, 2023
292 views
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• On February 6th, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit the city of Gesantep in South Central Turkey, causing significant devastation.
• Early death estimates are already over 2,000 and are expected to increase to over 20,000 within a week due to the lack of earthquake–resistant infrastructure.
• Earthquakes often provide opportunities for diplomatic breakthroughs, and in this case Russia and Sweden may be able to provide emergency assistance in order to gain political advantage in Turkey.
• The response to the earthquake must be quick, as those buried in the rubble will be gone after a few days.

Published February 7, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Earthquakes Wreak Havoc on Turkey and Syria

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Peter Zeihan – The Solar Power Problem(s) [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 6, 2023
285 views
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• Solar intensity around the world varies drastically, making it difficult to use solar to generate meaningful amounts of electricity and reduce carbon footprints.
• Denver, Colorado is one of the best places in the world for solar due to its sunny climate, clear skies, and lack of heavy air pollution.
• Current solar technology is not efficient enough to make solar feasible in many places, especially densely populated cities.
• To make solar viable, more efficient solar panels must be developed, transmission lines must be built, and high velocity capital must be available to finance solar projects.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Solar Power Problem(s)

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Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 3, 2023
272 views
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• Processing is an energy–intensive process which is usually done in multiple steps and in different facilities.
• China is the largest producer of raw and finished steel due to subsidies and low–interest loans.
• There are already plenty of social and technological anti-bot filters, and fear of backlash will limit adoption.
• Russia imports raw materials, uses their cheap power and coal to process and exports the value–added materials.
• The world is facing a crisis due to the economic, demographic and security issues in China and Russia.
• We need to prepare for a system where materials from these two countries face a significant decrease in production.
• It suggests that chatbots could be used to trick people into believing they are talking to a real person.
• February 17th webinar explores the economic implications of the Ukraine war and Russian minerals processing.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild

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Deglobalization: There’s No Stopping It Now [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 2, 2023
183 views
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• Globalization for the US was never about economics or trade, but about security, as demonstrated by Cold War foreign policy.
• The US benefited from globalization due to its large economy, but now the rest of the world has a combined economy that is 3-4x larger making indirect economic subsidization untenable.
• US politics has shifted with the changing demographics, economics, and security, diminishing support for globalization.
• Demographic shifts (urbanization, industrialization, Baby Boomers) have resulted in a global population running out of people 40 and under, eliminating the ability to sustain the globalized system through trade.
• The Biden Administration is far more anti-globalization than the Trump Administration, meaning it would take at least 6 years for the US to re-enter the globalized system, by which point China will likely be gone.

Published February 2, 2023
Visit Youtube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Deglobalization: There’s No Stopping It Now

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China’s Competitive Edge: Solar Exports [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 1, 2023
279 views
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• The Chinese government is considering putting export bans on certain types of solar panel manufacturing, specifically the ability to make the wafers and ingots that go into certain types of silicon panels.
• This potential ban could be a retaliation to recent actions taken by the United States.
• China has a history of dominating the manufacturing of technology, but not its innovation.
• The United States is mandating that a rising percentage of solar panels have to be manufactured in the United States, and the Chinese edge in the technology could be lost.
• The United States is unlikely to pursue industrial espionage, but South Korea, France, and Israel are the three countries most likely to do so.
• The Biden Administration is likely to either pursue technology transfer against the home country, or have South Korea steal the technology and negotiate with the United States.
• Solar panels are becoming more efficient and the political will to play hardball with China is present, so the Chinese leadership in the sector may be numbered.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog China’s Competitive Edge: Solar Exports

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Semiconductors: China’s the Odd Man Out [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 31, 2023
304 views
S

• The US, Dutch and Japanese have joined the American sanctions package against China for high end semiconductors, creating an international ecosystem of production.
• The nature of the semiconductor industry requires multiple steps of production that must all be done in the same place, making it difficult to replace missing countries.
• The Dutch need a strong ally to avoid getting dragged into continental affairs and the US is the best option for them.
• The Japanese are co–mingled with the US through trade deals and are the only country to have struck deals with both the Trump and Biden administrations.
• Korea is the only country left to join the sanctions, but they are in a difficult spot with their neighbors.
• The Chinese are now out of the game for mid to high end chips, leaving the globalized system of trade for these chips in its final years.

Published January 31, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Semiconductors: China’s the Odd Man Out

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Is the AI Revolution Here? [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 30, 2023
8,635 views
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• AI is changing the way we work and live, but it is not necessarily creating or destroying jobs.
• The impact of AI will be felt in mid–level white collar jobs, not in low–skilled blue–collar jobs.
• Over the past five years, the greatest increase in take–home pay has been for low–skilled blue–collar workers, helping to narrow economic inequality.
• Retiring Baby Boomers are liquidating investments and going into low–risk investments, which does not fund startups or larger tech companies.
• There is also a global shortage of 20–30 year olds to do research and development of these technologies.
• We are still far from a breakthrough in General AI, which is necessary for machines to be able to think and act independently.
• Applied AI is more like machine programming, which is limited in its scope.
• Universal Basic Income is not the answer, as productivity has stalled and labor shortages mean more people are in work than ever before.
• AI is real and will change how we work and live, but the impact is likely to be different than expected.

You can watch the full Is the AI Revolution Here? on YouTube – Published January 30, 2023

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Demographics Part 6: The Orthodox Predicament [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 26, 2023
319 views
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  • Orthodox Christian world is a huge swath of territory stretching from Russia to Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia
  • These countries have experienced broad-scale economic dislocation, resulting in high levels of out migration
  • Primary method of birth control in the region is abortion, leading to low birth rates, a low death rate, and high infertility rates
  • The Russians have suffered from stacked geopolitical disasters and have the smallest generation ever
  • In Ukraine, the population is already dissolving, with the Ukrainian ethnicity likely to vanish within 20-30 years
  • Russian ethnicity is likely to follow suit – Population decline in the Orthodox Christian world has the greatest economic impact in Northeast Asia

You can watch the full  Demographics Part 6: The Orthodox Predicament on YouTube – Published January 26, 2023

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