• The Chinese government is considering putting export bans on certain types of solar panel manufacturing, specifically the ability to make the wafers and ingots that go into certain types of silicon panels.
• This potential ban could be a retaliation to recent actions taken by the United States.
• China has a history of dominating the manufacturing of technology, but not its innovation.
• The United States is mandating that a rising percentage of solar panels have to be manufactured in the United States, and the Chinese edge in the technology could be lost.
• The United States is unlikely to pursue industrial espionage, but South Korea, France, and Israel are the three countries most likely to do so.
• The Biden Administration is likely to either pursue technology transfer against the home country, or have South Korea steal the technology and negotiate with the United States.
• Solar panels are becoming more efficient and the political will to play hardball with China is present, so the Chinese leadership in the sector may be numbered.
Published February 1, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog China’s Competitive Edge: Solar Exports
