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Demographics Part 6: The Orthodox Predicament [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Orthodox Christian world is a huge swath of territory stretching from Russia to Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, and Serbia
  • These countries have experienced broad-scale economic dislocation, resulting in high levels of out migration
  • Primary method of birth control in the region is abortion, leading to low birth rates, a low death rate, and high infertility rates
  • The Russians have suffered from stacked geopolitical disasters and have the smallest generation ever
  • In Ukraine, the population is already dissolving, with the Ukrainian ethnicity likely to vanish within 20-30 years
  • Russian ethnicity is likely to follow suit – Population decline in the Orthodox Christian world has the greatest economic impact in Northeast Asia

You can watch the full  Demographics Part 6: The Orthodox Predicament on YouTube – Published January 26, 2023

Germany Green-Lights the Tanks [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • German and US governments have struck a deal to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine
  • The Germans have been hesitant to take a leadership role in military affairs in the past, so this is a major shift in policy
  • The Abrams Tanks provided by the US are the pinnacle of armored equipment development, but require significant logistical support to operate, which is not available in Europe
  • Leopard tanks are already used in Europe and can be delivered much more quickly to the Ukraine
  • The Abrams will signal a vote of confidence from the US, but will take longer to be ready for battle

You can watch the full Germany Green-Lights the Tanks on YouTube – Published January 25, 2023

The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Ukrainians are vastly outmanned by the Russians, estimated to have 300,000 mobilized with 500,000 more coming by May/June
  • Ukrainians lack sufficient bullets to take out the additional Russian forces
  • Ukrainians need to inflict casualties at a ratio of 5:1 to prevail
  • Russians resupply primarily by rail and lost their supply line when the Kirch Bridge was taken out last year
  • Russians have been using vans, buses and even artillery shells on trucks to ferry troops around
  • Ukrainians have been attacking the truck Fleet of the Military, reducing it from 3,000 to 500
  • Ukrainians need to turn the war into one of movement to win, but the weather has not been cooperative
  • Russians are waiting for spring to throw extra half a million men in and come at the Ukrainians from multiple angles
  • Russians are trying to destroy morale/Ukrainian economy and kill civilians as much as possible using drones, missiles, etc.
  • Russians will shift their targeting from electricity infrastructure to agricultural infrastructure by June
  • This will have a significant impact on countries that normally import from Ukraine, especially Egypt, come October/November/December

You can watch the full The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide on YouTube – Published January 24, 2023

A Toasty Winter in Europe [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Unusually warm temperatures in Europe have caused a decrease in energy demand as heating is not as necessary.
  • This has freed up energy for industrial needs, allowing for nitrogen fertilizer production to come back at scale.
  • Further east in Ukraine, the mud season is being extended due to the warm temperatures, preventing the Ukrainian military from carrying out an offensive.
  • This weather has been beneficial for Western and Central Europe and has provided a pause in the Ukraine war.

You can watch the full A Toasty Winter in Europe on YouTube – Published January 11, 2023

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JDAMs: Ukrainian Bombs Get Smarter [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • The US has provided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMS) to the Ukraine, which are bombs with fins and a GPS transceiver attached to them, increasing their accuracy and making them cheaper than before.
  • With JDAMS, the Ukraine can now engage in offensive air attack missions, allowing them to target Russian targets within range and with pinpoint accuracy.
  • This technology can change the tactical and strategic picture of the Ukraine War, giving the Ukraine an advantage in the conflict.

link to original vlog published December 19, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qQeyi4bBHU


Ukraine: The Problems and Potential of Plopping for Patriots [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Possibility of US sending Patriot missile systems to Ukraine: US has been giving weapons to Ukraine that are not needed by US forces and are mostly from before the War on Terror.
  • Weapons must be old enough that if they fell into Russian hands, it would not give them an advantage.
  • Weapons must be something the Ukrainians can operate themselves, avoiding Western forces directly confronting Russian forces.
  • Patriot missile system may now be in play as Russians have been targeting civilian infrastructure and have been found to have torture chambers for children.

link to original vlog published December 16, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_DyC0_K1xI


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