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Latest stories

Peter Zeihan – Is India the Next China?

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 27, 2023
1,265 views
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  • Strategic largesse of the United States: The US created the globalized system to allow the import and export of everything on a global basis without having to secure territory or sea lanes militarily.
  • Hyper financialization: The Chinese system is dependent upon the ongoing strategic largesse of the US, which is a very bad plan. The US has the ability to kill this overnight if it chooses to.
  • Demographics: India has slowly transitioned to a chimney demography, but the process started a lot later than it did in China and is proceeding at a slower speed. India has plenty of people under 40 to do consuming and still have kids.
  • Closeness to resources: India is closer to the resources it needs, such as food and minerals, than China is. India is also the first stop out of the Persian Gulf, so it is unlikely to ever have an energy crisis.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Is India the Next China?

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Chartbook #198 Globalization: The shifting patchwork [Adam Tooze, Chartbook]

By William McClain
In Adam Tooze [Chartbook]
February 27, 2023
543 views
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  • Globalization is shifting – Ian Bremmer, Ngair Woods, Niall Ferguson and I debated this at Davos and continued the train of thought in the FT and in Chartbook #192.
  • Hyun Song Shin of the BIS gave a new outing and an update to his fundamental paper on how to envision globalization – as an island model or a network of balance sheets and how to connect financial and real economic globalization.
  • Globalization has regressed since 2008 – World goods exports in relation to GDP are now back to where they were in 2000.
  • Real and financial globalization are not separate processes but tightly interlinked – Credit finances transactions between a series of sub-contractors.
  • European banks were the main drivers of financial globalization from the 1990s onwards – This went into reverse in 2008.
  • Finance is fungible – A contraction in European lending shrinks funding across the entire system.
  • The world economy has always consisted of a patchwork – Sectors differ from each other in their logics and large parts of the world are not included.
  • Data from S&P’s Capital IQ (CIQ) database provides a snapshot of inter-firm linkages – This allows us to form an impression of the extent of corporate interconnections by country and by sector.
  • Different modes of globalization prevail in the textiles, automotive and information technology sectors – Textiles globalization takes the form of relatively simple China-Asia networks, the automobile industry is multi-polar, and IT involves a mesh of interconnections between Japanese, Chinese, Korean and US firms.
  • Comparing the network of firms in February 2020 with that in December 2021 – The automotive industry network remained largely stable whereas that for Information Technology was subject to significant contraction.
  • Tools of this kind, covering both real and financial interconnections, will enable us to trace future trends in globalization.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #198 Globalization: The shifting patchwork

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DeSantis pushes ban on gender studies at Florida colleges and universities [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

By William McClain
In [Popular Information]
February 27, 2023
457 views
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  • Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) is championing legislation that would ban Women’s and Gender Studies and other academic majors and minors from public colleges and universities in Florida.
  • DeSantis claims his proposal is an effort to support “intellectual freedom in higher education”, but groups dedicated to preserving intellectual freedom in education disagree, calling the proposal “the most draconian and censorious restrictions on public colleges and universities in the country.”
  • The proposal would also centralize the hiring of faculty, giving political appointees control over the process, and weaken the tenure system, allowing a politically-controlled board of trustees to “initiate a post-tenure review of a faculty member at any time.”
  • The bill contains a slew of undefined terms with no clear definition, creating an environment of self-censorship and fear, maximizing the control that DeSantis and his allies can exert over these institutions.
  • The DeSantis administration and the legislature are seeking to put faculty involved in disfavored activities on notice, requesting each Florida public college and university provide a list of all employees involved in “diversity, equity, and inclusion” and all related emails, text messages, and social media messages.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post DeSantis pushes ban on gender studies at Florida colleges and universities

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The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference [John Tierney, The Free Press]

By William McClain
In [The Free Press]
February 27, 2023
425 views
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  • Cashiers wear protective masks in a grocery store in New York City on April 2, 2020. This is an example of the widespread adoption of masks during the pandemic.
  • The most rigorous and extensive review of the scientific literature concludes that neither surgical masks nor N95 masks have been shown to make a difference in reducing the spread of Covid-19 and other respiratory illnesses. This is the most authoritative estimate of the value provided by wearing masks during the pandemic.
  • Before the pandemic, clinical trials repeatedly showed little or no benefit from wearing masks in preventing the spread of respiratory illnesses like flu and colds. This is why the World Health Organization, the CDC, and other national public health agencies did not recommend masking the public before the pandemic.
  • The gold standard for medical evidence is the randomized clinical trial, and the gold standard for analyzing this evidence is Cochrane. Cochrane is the world’s largest and most respected organization for evaluating health interventions.
  • It has published a new Cochrane review of the literature on masks, including trials during the Covid-19 pandemic in hospitals and in community settings. This review concludes that wearing any kind of face covering “probably makes little or no difference” in reducing the spread of respiratory illness.
  • Masks cause social, psychological, and medical problems, including a constellation of maladies called “Mask-Induced Exhaustion Syndrome.” This is a potential downside to wearing masks that is often overlooked.
  • Public health officials continue recommending or mandating masks without good evidence of their effectiveness or any pretense of cost-benefit analysis. This is in violation of the first-do-no-harm principle.
  • The CDC’s director, Rochelle Walensky, remains determined to ignore the best research on masks. This is despite the lack of evidence that masks make any difference.
  • The CDC repeatedly cherry-picked observational data, crediting masks for a short-term reduction in Covid rates in some localities while ignoring contrary data from more systematic analyses. This is an example of the CDC’s disregard for the best available evidence.
  • Can anything persuade the maskaholics in the public health establishment and the public to give up their obsession? This is an important question that needs to be answered in order to move forward.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read John Tierney’s original post The Real Science on Masks: They Make No Difference

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From the Archive: Your Best Parenting Advice [Emily Oster, ParentData]

By William McClain
In Emily Oster [ParentData]
February 27, 2023
456 views
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  • The Best Advice:
    • Frozen mini bagels make the world’s best teething rings.
    • When out with a stroller — reverse through doors.
    • To reset, put babies in water or bring them outside.
    • Read the manuals for baby gear you get before the baby arrives.
    • Use dye-free Tylenol so it doesn’t stain anything when they vomit it back up.
    • The shoulders in the onesie are so you can pull it down when there’s a poopsplosion.
  • The Winner: The most popular category of advice was what I call “It’s a phase,” which 16% of people said some version of.
  • Just relax: A lot of responses centered around a version of “It will be fine” or “Do what works.”
  • Value yourself: As parents, we are not always the best at recognizing that we — or our relationship — needs attention too.
  • Sleep-related: Many of us benefit from advice on sleep. Bedtime routines, encouragement to sleep train, permission to co-sleep, and embracing the concept of “wake windows” are all helpful.
  • The best advice givers: Moms, friends, pediatricians, and therapists are the best advice givers.
  • A final note: “If one is to be a parent, one must adopt the disposition of a placid cow.”

Published February 27, 2023
Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post From the Archive: Your Best Parenting Advice

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The Build-Nothing Country [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By William McClain
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 27, 2023
419 views
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  • Money is not physical stuff: Just because you earmark money for a project doesn’t mean it will get built. Permitting, land use, and development regulations can hold up the process for years, and cost overruns can lead to inadequate physical projects.
  • NIMBYism: NIMBYs are holding up solar and wind projects, transmission lines, and housing construction due to their intrusions on scenic views and taking up a lot of space.
  • Supply-chain snags: The Biden administration’s crackdown on sourcing from China has caused supply-chain snags and long waits to connect to the grid.
  • Cost overruns: The Second Avenue Subway line is an order of magnitude more costly per mile than similar projects in Europe due to overuse of expensive consultants, overly large train stations, and poor coordination and pork-barrel spending by other city agencies.
  • Environmental review laws: California’s extra-strict environmental review law (CEQA) is being abused by local supporters of physical stasis to prevent housing construction.
  • TSMC: The Taiwanese company that recently agreed to build a big plant in Arizona is running into major cost issues due to construction costs being 4 to 5x greater for US fabs versus a fab in Taiwan.

Published February 27, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post The Build-Nothing Country

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Erdoğan Is Getting Desperate [Enes Kanter Freedom, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 27, 2023
345 views
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  • Turkey has targeted me for years due to my denouncement of its strongman, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, which has resulted in my passport being revoked, 12 lawsuits against me, and my name being put on Interpol’s “Red Notice” list.
  • The earthquake that struck Turkey earlier this month represents one of the biggest disasters the country has ever faced, and the world has generously offered much-needed resources to help us recover.
  • Erdoğan has taken full control of the legislature and judiciary after a coup failed to oust him in 2016, dismissing thousands of judges who could have resisted his orders.
  • Erdoğan has committed human-rights violations which have been carried out under the pretext of anti-terror measures, resulting in Turkey being ranked “not free” by Freedom House and 117th out of 139 countries in the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index.
  • Erdoğan has used his leverage with the West to further his hunt for dissidents, such as attempting to compel Sweden and Finland to extradite up to 130 of his critics in exchange for supporting their NATO-membership bids.
  • Erdoğan is getting desperate and even more dangerous as the presidential elections in Turkey are only a few months away, and he has failed to stem a years-long economic crisis. He will come under increasing pressure to further consolidate his power and shore up support however he can.
  • The West must make clear that Erdoğan will be shunned from the world stage if he continues down this path of threatening the lives of opposition members in sovereign states.

Published February 26, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Enes Kanter Freedom’s original post Erdoğan Is Getting Desperate

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February 25, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By William McClain
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
February 27, 2023
353 views
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  • Yesterday, 21 Republican members of Congress sent a letter to Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. The letter complained that the federal government had not responded effectively to the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio and demanded Buttigieg provide “[a]ll documents and communications regarding NTSB’s progress on the cause of the derailment.”
  • The NTSB is an independent agency. Congress deliberately set it apart from the Department of Transportation to guarantee unbiased investigations.
  • The NTSB responded immediately. Nine NTSB investigators and four engineers in labs have been involved in the accident review. They have reviewed footage of the derailment, interviewed train staff, and examined the train event recorder.
  • The EPA is the federal agency in charge of responding to the release of hazardous substances and leading cleanup efforts. Its personnel were at the site by 2:00 on Saturday morning, about five hours after the derailment.
  • The Department of Transportation has two agencies that are appropriate to deploy for this kind of an accident. The Federal Railroad Administration enforces safety regulations for railways, and the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration enforces safety regulations for hazardous materials.
  • The letter is not about the derailment itself. It is about the careful way generations of Americans have tried to create a government that could support progress while also guaranteeing oversight, and it is about the lawmakers who wrote the letter to Secretary Buttigieg.
  • Either 21 Republican lawmakers charged with oversight of our government don’t know how the government works and didn’t care to find out, or they are deliberately misleading their loyalists. Buttiegieg responded: “I am alarmed to learn that the Chair of the House Oversight Committee thinks that the NTSB is part of our Department. NTSB is independent (and with good reason). Still, of course, we will fully review this and respond appropriately.”

Published February 26, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 25, 2023

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AI Techies! [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By William McClain
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 27, 2023
358 views
A
  • The AI techie subculture is a relatively small subculture of youngish people in San Francisco and the peninsula to the south, who often live in group houses and who are loosely clustered around the AI industry.
  • Money enables the AI techie subculture, but fundamentally it’s about dreams – feeling like you’re part of something new and special and amazing that no one else is a part of.
  • Beliefs that stem from and help to intensify this romantic feeling of momentum and importance include the belief that the AI boom is just getting started and will supercharge the economy, the conviction that AI will replace most human endeavors, worries about malign artificial general intelligence (AGI), and a believe in the crucial importance of AI alignment (designing AI to be human-friendly).
  • The bohemian/yuppie optimal control problem is a balance between the desire for romantic bohemianism and the desire for upward economic mobility.
  • The new AI techie culture is a bit different than the culture that built the internet – it feels more conservative, drugs and alcohol are frowned on more than they used to be, there’s more rhetorical support for things like monogamy and childbearing, and there’s much less passion for social justice.
  • Monogamy and Childbearing – AI techies are less likely to go to local Burner events and more likely to go to Vibecamp, which is described as “Burning Man for autistic people”. There is less passion for social justice and more disgust with SF’s homelessness situation.
  • Immigrants from Conservative Regions – Techies nowadays are more likely to be children of immigrants from more conservative regions of the globe, such as East and South Asia, East Europe, the Middle East, and West Africa.
  • Nature of Technology – The internet was inherently a utopian, humanistic project, while AI is generally framed as a way for companies to replace human beings.
  • Money – As the startup world has become a big, institutionalized business, money has become more and more available to a younger and younger set of people.
  • Yuppies – Young urban professionals who dedicate their time to climbing the economic ladder.
  • Multi-Armed Bandit Problem – Finding a balance between yuppie social climbing and bohemian youth.
  • Constrained Optimization Problem – Without living two full lifetimes, you don’t get to be both entirely bohemian and entirely yuppie.
  • Network – People used to working in AI need to network to meet VCs, engineers, founders, and people who might give them ideas about how to solve technical problems.
  • Echo Chamber – AI techies’ need to network can cut them off from the wider community around them.

Published February 26, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post AI Techies!

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Ukraine’s War Economy, 1 Year In [Joseph Politano, Apricitas Economics]

By William McClain
In Joseph Politano [Apricitas Economics]
February 27, 2023
380 views
U
  • One year ago, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia was launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine – This has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, tens of millions of refugees, and a 30-40% reduction in Ukraine’s GDP.
  • Ukraine and the Global Food Crisis – Ukrainian crop production and food exports have been severely harmed, but the absolute worst-case scenario was avoided. The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been instrumental in allowing food exports to resume.
  • Ukraine’s Battered Industry – Ukrainian industrial output has fallen more than 35%, and manufacturing output has fallen a staggering 40%. Companies still see the situation as getting worse before it gets better, and the war is the biggest impediment to Ukrainian economic growth.
  • Conclusions – Ukraine will likely remain dependent on foreign aid for much of its economic needs, and many nations are already failing to meet their stated military and financial commitments. Subscribe now to receive new posts on economic data analysis.

Published February 25, 2023
Visit Apricitas Economics to read Joseph Politano’s original post Ukraine’s War Economy, 1 Year In

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