• Hillary Clinton claimed in a 2018 speech that Democratic-leaning states represent the future and Republican ones the last gasps of a dying empire.
• The National Association of Realtors found that Florida and Texas topped the list for domestic migration last year, with New York and California bringing up the rear.
• Florida has gained nine congressional seats while New York has lost eight since 1980.
• The primary driver of the shift in migration preferences is housing costs, not taxes.
• The median New York home was built in 1957; the median Florida home is a full 30 years younger.
• The coronavirus pandemic has weakened office life, thus undermining one of New York City’s greatest historical advantages.
• Cities can enter a sort of doom loop, where declining revenues from taxes and user fees lead governments to cut important government services.
• Blue states aren’t doomed or dying, but even relatively small changes can still lead to acute crises for cities.
• Reversing the dynamic will require blue states to prioritize affordability.
Published February 9, 2023
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