• Russia mobilized 300,000 reservists in September to stabilize its front as winter set in.
• Despite recent successes in Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukrainian leaders are now warning that a new Russian offensive is imminent.
• Russian reservists are mostly men who previously served as one-year conscripts, with an average age of 35.
• Russian troops have demonstrated a deficit of discipline, making them vulnerable to determined Ukrainian defenders.
• Ukrainian success has come down to skillful use of modern weapons against this incompetent and demoralized enemy.
• U.S. training and advising have been almost as significant as the hardware in Ukraine’s success.
• Deteriorating morale on the front lines and at home is mutually reinforcing, making it harder for Russia to fill its penal battalions.
• Putin’s reluctance to mobilize is driven by fear of a political backlash to the call-up.
• Ukraine appears to have lost the manpower advantage, but Russia’s increased numbers are unlikely to overcome Ukrainian will and skill.
Published February 12, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Gil Barndollar’s original post Ukraine Has the Battlefield Edge
