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Janus’ Simulators [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

J

• Janus argues that language models like GPT are simulators, pretending to be something they are not.
• GPT can simulate different characters, such as the Helpful, Harmless, and Honest Assistant, or Darth Vader.
• Bostrom’s Superintelligence argued that oracles could be dangerous if they were goal-directed agents.
• GPT is not an agent, and is not likely to become one, no matter how advanced it gets.
• Psychologists and spiritual traditions have accused humans of simulating a character, such as the ego or self.
• People may become enlightened when they realize that most of their brain is a giant predictive model of the universe.

Published January 26, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Janus’ Simulators

January 25, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

J

• Democrats are staying out of the way while House Republicans make a spectacle of themselves, giving power to extremists like Marjorie Taylor Greene and facing financial improprieties from George Santos.
• Senate Republicans are staying out of debt ceiling negotiations until the House Republicans come up with a viable plan.
• President Joe Biden has signed an executive order to promote competition in the economy, reclaiming the country’s long tradition of opposing economic consolidation.
• Biden’s executive order has resulted in a sharp drop in mergers and acquisitions, and the December jobs report showed strong job growth and a decrease in unemployment.
• The CHIPS and Science Act has attracted multibillion-dollar private investments and created jobs accessible to those without college degrees.
• The Inflation Reduction Act has capped the cost of insulin for those on Medicare, made hearing aids available over the counter, and expanded subsidies for the Affordable Care Act.
• Biden is taking to the road to tout his successes to the country, especially to those places most skeptical of the government.

Published January 26, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 25, 2023

DOJ Sues Google, Google’s Advertising Aggregation, No Duty to Deal [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

D

• The DOJ has filed a lawsuit against Google, alleging that the company has abused its role as one of the largest brokers, suppliers, and online auctioneers of ads placed on websites and mobile applications.
• The lawsuit seeks to unwind Google’s “anticompetitive acquisitions” and calls for the divestiture of its ad exchange.
• Google has used its market power to force more publishers and advertisers to use its products while disrupting their ability to use competing products effectively.
• Google’s power in digital advertising stems from a series of acquisitions, beginning with the company’s $3.1 billion purchase of DoubleClick in 2008.
• Google has capitalized on its well-known search engine to start a profitable search advertising business, Google Ads (formerly AdWords).
• Google Ads’ unique and sizeable advertiser demand is what makes Google’s ad exchange unavoidable for most website publishers.
• A 2014 Google experiment found that more than half of the impressions that publishers offered on its ad exchange would go unsold without the critical Google Ads’ demand.
• Google has effectively locked out meaningful competition in the digital advertising industry by leveraging its control of the “operating system” of advertising.
• Google has Aggregated the long tail of advertisers, and that long tail is so large that no publisher can do without them.
• Google has then levered access to those advertisers into control of the “operating system” of advertising, and with that control systemically favored itself.
• Google shifted money from advertisers to publishers by submitting two bids for ad slots from Google Ads, which systematically increased the winning price for an ad.
• Google’s defense is the “no duty to deal” argument, which is based on the Supreme Court case Verizon v. Trinko.
• The most likely outcome is that this case highlights exactly where current law is deficient in limiting big tech companies.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post DOJ Sues Google, Google’s Advertising Aggregation, No Duty to Deal

Spill it [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

S

• Popular Information has exposed an extraordinary assault on academic freedom in Florida.
• Bruce Friedman in Clay County has removed over 100 books from school libraries and is seeking to remove thousands more.
• Vicki Baggett in Escambia County is trying to ban 150 books from school libraries, including one about a legendary sprinter who overcame racial prejudice. Baggett allegedly said she opposed interracial marriage in class.
• Florida schools are using the “”Don’t Say Gay”” law to justify the erasure of LGBTQ people.
• Teachers in Manatee County are being told to make their classroom libraries inaccessible to students, or risk felony prosecution.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post Spill it

The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly [Vinay Prasad, The Free Press]

T

• Damar Hamlin’s near-death experience on national television has sparked speculation that Covid vaccines are the cause of sudden deaths among young, seemingly healthy people.
• The hashtag #DiedSuddenly has been used to track these unexpected deaths, and an anti-vaccine documentary has been seen by millions.
• Side effects of the vaccine include short-term effects such as arm pain, chills, fever, and headache, as well as more serious events such as myocarditis, a clotting condition, and blood clots in the lungs.
• Myocarditis is more common in young males and occurs more often after the second dose of vaccine, particularly with Moderna.
• Two recent studies have raised concerns about the connection between the mRNA vaccines and myocarditis, and the potential risk of strokes in people over 65 with the Pfizer bivalent booster.
• It is difficult to determine the cause of cardiac arrest in a seemingly healthy person, and an autopsy may be needed to reveal acute inflammation of the heart.
• Recent op-ed in *The Wall Street Journal* asserted that there were many “excess deaths” in 2020 and 2021 that were not attributable to Covid.
• These non-Covid deaths were disproportionately among young adults and likely already exceed 250,000.
• Americans have good reasons for their skepticism of public health leaders due to their denial of evidence and lack of transparency.
• Vaccines do not prevent people from getting or spreading Covid-19, and natural immunity from contracting Covid-19 is not considered when making vaccination recommendations.
• FDA is expected to call for an annual dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, but without studies looking into whether these vaccines provide sufficient protection to make any risks worthwhile.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Vinay Prasad’s original post The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly

January 24, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

J

• Mike Pence’s lawyer revealed on January 18, 2023, that Pence had documents with classified markings at his Indiana home. This suggests that it is not uncommon for officials to find such documents among their papers, although the level of classification matters.
• The discovery highlights the difference between officials like Biden and Pence who inadvertently find such documents and alert the National Archives and Research Administration (NARA), and those who stonewall NARA and the FBI, as Trump did.
• Judge Robert McBurney heard arguments about whether to release the grand jury’s report investigating Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential vote in Georgia.
• Representative George Santos revised his financial reports to say that a $500,000 loan to his campaign did not, in fact, come from his personal funds.
• Representative Elise Stefanik is being pulled into Santos’ troubles.
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy put together a weaponization committee to fulfill a promise to the right-wing extremists whose votes he needed to become speaker. The true goal of the committee is to “shovel paranoia and distortion into the news stream” to make right-wing voters distrust the government even more.
• McCarthy refused to seat Democratic representatives Adam Schiff and Eric Swalwell on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.
• Another mass shooting on Monday took seven more lives, bringing the total for 2023 to an all-time high for mass shootings at this point in the calendar. California Governor Gavin Newsom called out Republicans for standing in the way of gun safety.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 24, 2023

You Don’t Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

Y

– HiTOP is a scientifically-grounded taxonomy of mental disorders meant to compete with the DSM.
– The DSM has been criticized for pathologizing homosexuality and other healthy behaviours.
– The DSM writers are trans-friendly and want to make sure trans people can get the care they need, but they also don’t want to stigmatize trans people.
– From a biological point of view, homosexuality and pedophilia are similar, but the relevant difference between them is moral, not biological.
– A purely biological, apolitical taxonomy of mental disorders would have difficulty distinguishing between things that are ethically and practically different.
– New taxonomies of mental disorders are still useful for other reasons, but they cannot avoid political bias in what is vs. isn’t a disorder.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post You Don’t Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders

Google’s most serious antitrust challenge to date [Casey Newton, Platformer]

G

• The US Justice Department and 8 states have filed a major antitrust case against Google, accusing the company of maintaining an illegal monopoly over the online ad business.
• The lawsuit calls for Google to divest its Google Ad Manager suite, including both its publisher ad server and ad exchange.
• Google has faced a steady drumbeat of regulators accusing it of antitrust violations since 2017, when the European Commission fined the company a then-record $2.73 billion.
• Google’s estimated 26.5 percent share of the US digital ad market is down more than 10 percent from its peak in 2015, due to the growth of Meta and Amazon.
• The lawsuit claims that Google’s fees on its ad exchanges allow it to keep 30 cents out of every dollar spent on them, resulting in overcharges of $100 million for federal agencies.
• The case is rooted in real harms and is in line with traditional thinking about the point of antitrust law, which is to protect consumers.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Platformer to read Casey Newton’s original post Google’s most serious antitrust challenge to date

Remember Rich Uncle Pennybags [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

R

• The Rich Uncle Pennybags test is a way to think politically, asking if the proposed action will hurt the most privileged person.
• Labor issues, such as laws and regulations about unions, pass the test as they threaten Rich Uncle Pennybags’ station.
• Workplace diversity, equity, and inclusion trainings do not pass the test as they do not change the distribution of power.
• Race-based affirmative action passes the test as it helps to address inequalities in access to college and can help to redress overall socioeconomic inequality.
• Criticizing Elon Musk for his right-wing memes is an example of culture war that does not pass the Rich Uncle Pennybags test.
• Politics should focus on mass action and structural change that Rich Uncle Pennybags can’t ignore, rather than personal critique.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post Remember Rich Uncle Pennybags

Tech Layoffs, Big Tech’s Hiring Rates, Microsoft’s VR Layoffs [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

T

• Tech layoffs are popularly thought to be due to over-hiring during the pandemic, but there is little evidence that tech companies over-hired based on past rates.
• Apple has been better positioned than many rivals to date due to slower hiring during the pandemic and a focus on hardware products.
• Amazon has seen the most dramatic increase in employee numbers over the last decade due to the build-out of its owned-and-operated logistics network.
• Microsoft’s recent layoffs are not an indication that the company is abandoning its metaverse strategy, but rather a shift away from hardware and towards being available on all platforms.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Tech Layoffs, Big Tech’s Hiring Rates, Microsoft’s VR Layoffs

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