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January 14, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

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• Ratification Day is the anniversary of the day in 1784 when members of the Confederation Congress ratified the Treaty of Paris, which ended the Revolutionary War and formally recognized the independence of the United States from Great Britain.
• The Treaty of Paris was signed by John Adams, Benjamin Franklin, and John Jay for the United States, and David Hartley for Great Britain.
• The Treaty of Paris was a testament to the negotiating skills of the U.S. team, as they got independence, a promise to forget all past misunderstandings, repatriation of prisoners of war, no reparations, and more.
• The Treaty of Paris established the western boundary of the new nation at the Mississippi River, gave both Americans and British the right to transport goods along that waterway, and gave the United States fishing rights on the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.
• Congress had six months from the September 3 signing to get the treaty across the Atlantic Ocean, ratify the agreement, and get it back across the ocean to England.
• On January 14, 1784, Congress approved the treaty and issued a proclamation to notify all the good citizens of the United States.
• The ratification of the Treaty of Paris marked the beginning of the journey to become the United States of America.

Published January 15, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

Repost: Distributed service-sector productivity [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• The internet has the potential to spark a productivity boom, just as electricity did in the 1920s.
• Productivity growth has slowed to a crawl since the mid-2000s, and technology is needed to help boost us out of this.
• Electricity took a long time to start lifting productivity by measurable amounts, as factories had to reorganize their systems of production around the new technology.
• Computers allowed production to reorganize itself, with the rise of outsourcing.
• Service industries have been contributing less to productivity growth than manufacturing, but the internet could help change this.
• Remote work could allow companies to distribute their workforces to low-cost locations, and could nudge them to reevaluate the necessity of many meetings and routine office tasks.
• Working from home could save on commute time and costs, and dual-use living space and office space with home offices.
• Remote work has the potential to increase productivity by reducing costs associated with commuting, housing, and outsourcing.
• Location arbitrage allows people to move to cheaper places to live and work, and international task outsourcing allows companies to hire people from cheaper countries.
• Improved outsourcing management makes it easier to monitor contractors and blur the line between within-firm and between-firm cooperation.
• Efficient time management allows remote workers to manage their own time and do something else once their tasks are completed.
• Telehealth and distance education can reduce commuting time and office space, and offer economies of scale.
• Productivity gains come with social disruptions, such as reduced ridership for transit systems and downward pressure on wages for some workers.

Published January 15, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s post: Distributed service-sector productivity

Prince Harry Proves One Thing: The Tabloids Were Right [Martin Clarke, The Free Press]

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• Martin Clarke, former Editor-in-Chief of Mail Online, weighs in on Prince Harry and Meghan’s recent media deals and the Sussexes of Montecito.
• Prince Harry has a deep hatred of the media, blaming them for everything.
• Clarke argues that much of the reporting Harry has objected to over the years turns out to be substantially true.
• Harry conflates social media and The Media, and resurrects his mother’s memory to blame the press for her death.
• Diana was smart and manipulated the press to her advantage.
• Harry fails to mention the yards of hysterical, gushing coverage that surrounded his wedding.
• Harry believes he hasn’t increased the terrorist threat to his family by revealing his 25 “kills” in Afghanistan.
• Harry has little understanding of how his own country works and is pushing at a dangerously open door with his intolerance of the free press.

Published January 15, 2023

Visit The Free Press to read Martin Clarke’s original post Prince Harry Proves One Thing: The Tabloids Were Right

January 13, 2023 (Friday) [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

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• Russia released American Taylor Dudley, who had been held since April in Kaliningrad, a slice of land between Poland and Lithuania.
• Cervical cancer rates have dropped 65% among women in their early 20s, likely due to HPV vaccinations.
• Inflation rates have slowed due to falling gas prices and airfares, and the federal budget deficit fell significantly in 2022.
• The US is about to hit the debt ceiling, and House Republicans are preparing an emergency plan to breach it, which would cut off 20% of government spending.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the US economy.
• Former President Trump was fined $1.6 million for a tax fraud scheme, and Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes approved prosecutors’ request to investigate him for inspiring the January 8 attack on Brazil’s presidential offices.

Published January 14, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

Is the Fed hiking too fast? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Inflation is slowing but still above target, with headline inflation very low and core inflation moderate but above target.
• Many are worried about a recession, with an inverted yield curve being a decent predictor of slowing economic activity.
• The labor market is still strong, with payrolls adding 223,000 jobs in December and the prime-age employment-population ratio still around 80%.
• The Fed started hiking rates in March 2022, but some argue that the rate hikes haven’t had time to affect the economy yet and are unnecessary.
• Research is divided on how long it takes for rate hikes to have an effect, with some studies predicting a hump-shaped effect and others predicting a gradually increasing impact.
• It’s possible that fiscal policy is playing a role in the moderation of inflation, with deficits closing in late 2021 and disposable personal income stopping being anomalously high around the same time.
• As long as the trend continues, the Fed will likely taper off its rate increases, with the conquest of the post-pandemic inflation underway.

Published January 14, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

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• Conspiracy theories can be divided into two types: those that are used to explain away anomalies in a narrative, and those that are used to explain away emotions.
• The first type of conspiracy theory is often used to explain away anomalies in a narrative, such as the bullet trajectory in the Kennedy assassination or the Great Pyramid’s latitude matching the speed of light.
• The second type of conspiracy theory is often used to explain away emotions, such as hatred of the global elite or anger at a partner.
• These conspiracy theories are often driven by emotions such as anxiety, depression, and anger, which can lead to biased processing of information.
• In the case of Trump-Russiagate, the conspiracy theory was appealing because it provided a single, irrefutable reason to hate Trump.
• In the case of the Global Adrenochrome Pedophile Cabal, the conspiracy theory was appealing because it provided a way to justify intense antipathy towards the global elite.

Published January 13, 2023. Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post.

January 12, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

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• Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Robert Hur as special counsel to investigate President Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents.
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Congress should conduct its own investigation.
• Republicans have tried to suggest that Biden was being treated differently than Trump is, but the appointment of a special counsel undermines that.
• Biden’s team offered up to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) the information that Biden had documents in his possession, and is apparently cooperating with the Justice Department.
• Trump is apparently being investigated for obstruction and for violations of the Espionage Act.
• Arguments began today in the trial of five Proud Boys for their actions associated with the events of January 6, 2021.
• The Justice Department today argued that the Proud Boys led the attack on the Capitol, while defense attorneys argued that their clients were being used as “scapegoats” for Trump.

Published January 13, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

Inside Pollen’s Transparent Compensation Data [Gergely Orosz, The Pragmatic Engineer]

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• Pollen was an events tech startup founded in 2015, which raised more than $200M in funding and employed about 600 people by 2022.
• After a series of layoffs, the company ran out of money and entered administration last August, leaving employees unpaid.
• Pollen implemented pay transparency, allowing employees to view compensation details for every role at the company.
• This article dissects the pay transparency report, covering Pollen’s compensation philosophy, tech compensation numbers, regional pay differences, highest and lowest-paid roles, budgets by organization, and inspiration to take from the report.
• Subscribers have access to a cleaned and browsable version of the data set, with 18 diagrams analyzing the data.

Published January 12, 2023. Visit The Pragmatic Engineer to read Gergely Orosz’s original post.

Can ‘radioactive data’ save the internet from AI’s influence? [Casey Newton, Platformer]

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• AI-generated text is increasingly being used in mainstream media, with CNET and the Associated Press using automation technology to publish articles.
• Character A.I. is a website that allows users to interact with chatbots that mimic real people and fictional characters.
• AI-generated text can be used to spread propaganda and other influence operations, and is difficult to detect.
• Solutions to this problem include regulating AI models, regulating access to them, developing tools to identify AI influence operations, and promoting media literacy.
• Platforms can also collaborate with AI developers to identify inauthentic content, and the concept of “radioactive data” has been proposed as a way to trace AI-generated text back to its source.

Published January 13, 2023. Visit Platformer to read Casey Newton’s original post.

Can I Wear a MAGA Hat To My Government Job? [Ken White, Popehat]

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• The Ninth Circuit recently ruled in Dodge v. Evergreen School District that Eric Dodge, a sixth-grade teacher from Vancouver, Washington, was entitled to a trial on his claim that school district officials violated his First Amendment rights by threatening to discipline him for wearing a MAGA hat to teacher training.
• The First Amendment protects public employees differently depending on whether the government is wearing its sovereign hat or its employer hat.
• To show a violation of the First Amendment, a public employee must show that the state actor engaged in an “adverse employment action” against the plaintiff as a result of their speech.
• The government must establish that it had a legitimate administrative interest in preventing or punishing the speech that outweighed the employee’s interest in exercising their First Amendment rights.
• The more the employee’s speech resembles core First Amendment expression (like political speech), the harder it is for the government to make this showing.
• Even when First Amendment rights are violated, there may not be a remedy due to the judicially created doctrine of “qualified immunity.”

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Popehat to read Ken White’s original post.

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