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If I Have to Keep Hearing “Nobody Believes In Us” I’m Going to Jump Out a Window [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

By Spencer Chen
In Freddie deBoer
January 26, 2023
260 views
I

• The Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs have both been playing the “nobody believes in us” card, despite the Bengals having the consensus best player in football and hosting the AFC championship game for the fifth consecutive time.
• Betting underdogs went 97-175 in terms of wins and losses last season, suggesting that the “nobody believes in us” narrative is not as powerful as it is made out to be.
• Teams like the Patriots, Cowboys, and 49ers have all won championships despite being favored in the majority of their Super Bowl appearances.
• Professional athletes are already playing as hard as they can, as they have a direct financial incentive to do so.
• The “nobody believes in us” narrative is insulting and absurd, as motivation has nothing to do with the outcome of the game.

Published January 26, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post If I Have to Keep Hearing “Nobody Believes In Us” I’m Going to Jump Out a Window

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Republicans can’t even explain what they’re trying to do with the debt ceiling [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

By Spencer Chen
In [Slow Boring]
January 26, 2023
177 views
R

• Republicans are instigating a debt ceiling drama without any real interest in the national debt or deficit reduction.
• Trump, Vance, and Mace have all ruled out cuts to Social Security and Medicare, and the Freedom Caucus rejected Manchin’s proposal for a bipartisan commission.
• There is an established process for cutting discretionary spending, but Republicans have not taken advantage of it.
• Ryan and Trump wanted to cut Medicaid, but the ACA expansion put a stop to that.
• A bipartisan commission could be a good idea, but it would require Republicans to agree to tax increases.
• The Chicago Model of issuing high-coupon bonds could be a promising way for the executive branch to keep the country running.

Published January 26, 2023
Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post Republicans can’t even explain what they’re trying to do with the debt ceiling

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Janus’ Simulators [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By Spencer Chen
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
January 26, 2023
232 views
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• Janus argues that language models like GPT are simulators, pretending to be something they are not.
• GPT can simulate different characters, such as the Helpful, Harmless, and Honest Assistant, or Darth Vader.
• Bostrom’s Superintelligence argued that oracles could be dangerous if they were goal-directed agents.
• GPT is not an agent, and is not likely to become one, no matter how advanced it gets.
• Psychologists and spiritual traditions have accused humans of simulating a character, such as the ego or self.
• People may become enlightened when they realize that most of their brain is a giant predictive model of the universe.

Published January 26, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Janus’ Simulators

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The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly [Vinay Prasad, The Free Press]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Free Press]
January 25, 2023
215 views
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• Damar Hamlin’s near-death experience on national television has sparked speculation that Covid vaccines are the cause of sudden deaths among young, seemingly healthy people.
• The hashtag #DiedSuddenly has been used to track these unexpected deaths, and an anti-vaccine documentary has been seen by millions.
• Side effects of the vaccine include short-term effects such as arm pain, chills, fever, and headache, as well as more serious events such as myocarditis, a clotting condition, and blood clots in the lungs.
• Myocarditis is more common in young males and occurs more often after the second dose of vaccine, particularly with Moderna.
• Two recent studies have raised concerns about the connection between the mRNA vaccines and myocarditis, and the potential risk of strokes in people over 65 with the Pfizer bivalent booster.
• It is difficult to determine the cause of cardiac arrest in a seemingly healthy person, and an autopsy may be needed to reveal acute inflammation of the heart.
• Recent op-ed in *The Wall Street Journal* asserted that there were many “excess deaths” in 2020 and 2021 that were not attributable to Covid.
• These non-Covid deaths were disproportionately among young adults and likely already exceed 250,000.
• Americans have good reasons for their skepticism of public health leaders due to their denial of evidence and lack of transparency.
• Vaccines do not prevent people from getting or spreading Covid-19, and natural immunity from contracting Covid-19 is not considered when making vaccination recommendations.
• FDA is expected to call for an annual dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, but without studies looking into whether these vaccines provide sufficient protection to make any risks worthwhile.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Vinay Prasad’s original post The Epidemic of #DiedSuddenly

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You Don’t Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By Spencer Chen
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
January 25, 2023
287 views
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– HiTOP is a scientifically-grounded taxonomy of mental disorders meant to compete with the DSM.
– The DSM has been criticized for pathologizing homosexuality and other healthy behaviours.
– The DSM writers are trans-friendly and want to make sure trans people can get the care they need, but they also don’t want to stigmatize trans people.
– From a biological point of view, homosexuality and pedophilia are similar, but the relevant difference between them is moral, not biological.
– A purely biological, apolitical taxonomy of mental disorders would have difficulty distinguishing between things that are ethically and practically different.
– New taxonomies of mental disorders are still useful for other reasons, but they cannot avoid political bias in what is vs. isn’t a disorder.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post You Don’t Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders

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Remember Rich Uncle Pennybags [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

By Spencer Chen
In Freddie deBoer
January 24, 2023
282 views
R

• The Rich Uncle Pennybags test is a way to think politically, asking if the proposed action will hurt the most privileged person.
• Labor issues, such as laws and regulations about unions, pass the test as they threaten Rich Uncle Pennybags’ station.
• Workplace diversity, equity, and inclusion trainings do not pass the test as they do not change the distribution of power.
• Race-based affirmative action passes the test as it helps to address inequalities in access to college and can help to redress overall socioeconomic inequality.
• Criticizing Elon Musk for his right-wing memes is an example of culture war that does not pass the Rich Uncle Pennybags test.
• Politics should focus on mass action and structural change that Rich Uncle Pennybags can’t ignore, rather than personal critique.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post Remember Rich Uncle Pennybags

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Joe Biden’s conditional optimism about America [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

By Spencer Chen
In [Slow Boring]
January 24, 2023
157 views
J

• Joe Biden sees America as beset by a crisis of self-confidence, and believes that with the country’s advantages, it can surmount problems and lead the world if united.
• Biden’s ability to demonstrate profound interpersonal empathy serves him in the work of presidenting, as he works with his opponents’ genuine desires and sees the world through their eyes.
• Biden’s approach to domestic legislation is based on understanding Republicans’ actual needs, and he has been able to wring a considerable amount of legislative juice out of unpromisingly small majorities.
• Biden is attempting to maintain a strategic advantage for the democratic bloc in key areas like chips and artificial intelligence, while understanding the need to manage all aspects of the situation and only get into dealmaking mode when it would be constructive.
• Biden has the smallest cultural footprint of any American president of my lifetime, and his project of unifying the country has to take place on a social and psychological level.
• Biden needs to be more present in our lives, more outspokenly normal, and more encouraging of other people to be more outspoken about their normal views.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post Joe Biden’s conditional optimism about America

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Who Predicted 2022? [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By Spencer Chen
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
January 24, 2023
257 views
W

• Last year, 508 people were asked to assign percentage chances to 71 yes-or-no questions about the future.
• Log-loss scoring was used to grade everyone’s probability estimates, with lower scores being better.
• Superforecasters outscored 84% of other participants, and an aggregate created by averaging all 508 participants’ guesses scored at the 84th percentile.
• Prediction markets did extraordinarily well, scoring at the 99.5th percentile.
• The single best forecaster of the 508 participants got a score of 25.68.
• Seven people placed in the top five spots, including a data scientist at Amazon’s forecasting division, a high school dropout, and a former trader and professional Magic player.
• Users with self-reported IQ > 150 may have outperformed everyone else.
• Sam, Eric and Scott are running a repeat version of the contest for 2023, with 3500 entries so far.
• Superforecaster aggregation and prediction markets are expected to beat most individual predictors.
• Estimating the chance of a cease-fire in Ukraine is difficult and uncertain, but various methods can be used to increase accuracy.
• These methods include various groups, sources, and aggregation methods, but none of them are the most accurate source of forecasts.
• The most accurate source of forecasts would be Putin and Zelenskyy, who could have secret plans they haven’t announced.
• The goal is to increase knowledge efficiency by using the information available to the general public and a few minutes of reflection to gain as much accuracy as possible.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Who Predicted 2022?

 

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Climate Activism Has a Cult Problem [Zion Lights, The Free Press]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Free Press]
January 23, 2023
233 views
C

• Extinction Rebellion is a movement that fights climate change by demanding governments stop using and producing fossil fuels immediately.
• Their methods seem unorthodox, and the author used to be a part of the movement.
• The author was part of Camp for Climate Action, where they protested a different corporation every year, and was part of the collective that took over Waterloo Bridge in London for two weeks.
• The author was asked to join the XR Media and Messaging Team, and her days were spent writing for the national press, feeding journalists quotes and information, and editing their newspaper, The Hourglass.
• The author was instructed to cry on television and bring her children to climate marches to manipulate emotions, and the XR office had a sign to keep shoes on due to people walking around without them.
• Roger Hallam, a 56-year-old organic farmer-turned-radical, is the most dominant leader of the climate change movement Extinction Rebellion (XR).
• He preys on the guilt and anxiety of his followers, mostly young men and women, and has been compared to a cult leader.
• Greta Thunberg, another prominent figure in the climate change movement, has been heavily influenced by XR.
• In October 2019, XR shut down the London Tube, which caused a lot of public backlash and splintered the movement.
• Roger’s extreme rhetoric and actions, such as his proposal to fly drones over Heathrow Airport, have caused many members to leave XR.
• Roger has since rebranded the most extreme faction of XR, Just Stop Oil, which is supported by the Climate Emergency Fund.
• His apocalyptic rhetoric has become more lurid, and he has been accused of brainwashing innocent children to do his bidding.

Published January 22, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Zion Lights’s original post Climate Activism Has a Cult Problem

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Bret Easton Ellis’s Great Defense of Gen X [Peter Savodnik, The Free Press]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Free Press]
January 22, 2023
284 views
B

• Bret Easton Ellis’s new novel, The Shards, is set in the Century Towers, which can be seen from his 11th-story condo in West Hollywood.
• Ellis wrote the novel over the course of 16 months, and it is about a serial killer named The Trawler and the kids whose lives are turned upside down by him.
• The novel is a reflection of Ellis’s own experiences as a teenager in the fall of 1981, and is about the search for freedom and independence.
• Ellis reflects on the transformation of the younger generations since the early nineties, and how the uncool earnestness of the signallers and brand builders has replaced the cool of the Gen X-ers.
• Ellis believes that no one can save us, and that the novel is a nostalgia for the past and a lamentation of what we have become.

Published January 22, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Peter Savodnik’s original post Bret Easton Ellis’s Great Defense of Gen X

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