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Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys [Astral Codex Ten]

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  • Selection bias is a fact of life and should not be used as an excuse to reject internet surveys.
  • Selection bias is disastrous for polls, but only sometimes a problem for correlations.
  • Professional scientists usually use Psych 101 students or put up a flyer in town to get participants, which can lead to selection bias.
  • Selection bias should be taken into account when conducting research, but it should not be used as an excuse to reject internet surveys.

Click HERE for original. Published December 27, 2022

How Twitter Rigged the Covid Debate [David Zweig, The Free Press]

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  • Twitter suppressed true information from doctors and public-health experts that was at odds with U.S. government policy.
  • The Trump and Biden administrations directly pressed Twitter executives to moderate the platform’s content according to their wishes.
  • Twitter acted as a kind of FBI subsidiary, re-writing the platform’s policies on the fly to accommodate political bias and pressure.
  • Twitter suppressed views and even scientific evidence that ran to the contrary.
  • Bots and contractors were used to moderate content, leading to a significant error rate.
  • Higher level employees at Twitter chose the inputs for the bots and decision trees, and determined suspensions.
  • Content that was contrarian but true, and the people who conveyed that content, were still subject to getting flagged and suppressed.
  • Twitter propped up the official government line that prioritizing mitigation over other concerns was the best approach to the pandemic.
  • If Twitter had allowed the kind of open forum for debate that it claimed to believe in, could any of this have turned out differently?

Click HERE for original. Published December 26, 2022

I Was Taught ‘God Hates Christmas.’ Now, I Love It. [Megan Phelps-Roper, The Free Press]

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  • Megan Phelps-Roper grew up in the Westboro Baptist Church, where Christmas was seen as a pagan farce and public celebrations were an opportunity to set themselves apart from others.
  • She was taught to hate Christmas, but now, as an adult, she has come to appreciate the beauty of the holiday.
  • She has found a way to bridge her past and present without burning it all down, by recognizing the beauty of Christmas traditions and the joy of coming together with family and friends.
  • She has also come to understand that we can choose the meaning we assign to our experiences, and that they need not be tethered forever to the evils of an unchanging past.

Click HERE for original. Published December 25, 2022

We Need to Talk About Nepo Babies Because We Live in a “Just Deserts” Culture [Freddie deBoer]

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  • Nepotism in Hollywood is a product of chance and has been a problem for a long time.
  • Complaining about nepo babies is not just a result of jealousy, but also an acknowledgement that they were given an unfair advantage.
  • The odds of two members of the same immediate family both independently making it in Hollywood are very low.
  • Ancillary benefits of nepotism include access to resources and financial stability.
  • Responses to criticisms of nepotism should involve recognizing and being grateful for privileges while still taking advantage of them.
  • We should use this opportunity to remind people that the myth of the self-made man is false, and that socioeconomic class is the greatest barrier to success.

Click HERE for original. Published December 22, 2022

“The First Amendment Isn’t Absolute.” Sure, But So What? [Ken White, Serious Matters]

  • The First Amendment has established limits, but these limits are well-defined and narrowly limited.
  • The Supreme Court has repeatedly listed the First Amendment exceptions, which include obscenity, defamation, fraud, incitement, and speech integral to criminal conduct.
  • The Supreme Court has stated that it will not create new exceptions to the First Amendment by balancing the harm of speech against its value.
  • The established First Amendment exceptions must be interpreted according to existing law, and cannot be used to mean whatever one wants them to mean.

Click HERE for original. Published December 24, 2022

Was Santa Actually a Mushroom-Tripping Reindeer Herder? [Leighton Woodhouse, The Free Press]

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  • The traditional explanation of Santa Claus is an ancient fable about Christian virtue which spread across medieval Europe and then, upon landing in the United States, was promptly commercialized.
  • The revisionist version is a tale of pre-Christian, indigenous pagan spirituality that was somehow smuggled into our modern Christian/consumerist holiday.
  • The traditional explanation is the story of Saint Nicholas, a Greek bishop who was persecuted for his faith by the Romans and gave away his inheritance to the poor.
  • The revisionist version starts with the Amanita muscaria, a psychoactive mushroom that gives humans the sensation of flying.
  • The indigenous people of Lapland used to consume the drug safely by drinking the reindeers’ urine and shamans would dress in its likeness, in a red and white costume, and visit prominent Sámi households to pass along the insights that they achieved through their hallucinogenic trips.
  • It’s possible that, like Easter, our Christmas traditions are a blend of Christian and pagan themes.
  • Maybe the mushroom is even more connected to the birth of Jesus than to Santa Claus.

Click HERE for original. Published December 24, 2022

Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences? [Astral Codex Ten]

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  • The tweet claiming that all healthy people have mystical experiences is false.
  • Only 17% of very mentally healthy people reported having a spiritual experience, compared to 21% of all respondents.
  • The difference was significant at p < 0.001.

Click HERE for original. Published December 23, 2022

How Did Sam Bankman-Fried Get Bail? [Ken White, Serious Matters]

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  • Sam Bankman-Fried was released on bail shortly after agreeing to extradition to the US.
  • The bail terms include home detention with an ankle monitor, intensive pretrial supervision, surrendering of passport, and financial restrictions.
  • A total bond of $250 million was set, with his parents co-signing and two non-parent sureties to follow.
  • His parents must also post their home equity by January 12th.
  • The bail is a surprisingly good deal for a person accused of a multi-billion dollar fraud, and is consistent with federal bail laws.

Click HERE for original. Published December 23, 2022

In Defense Of Free Speech Pedantry [Ken White, The Popehat Report]

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  • Free speech values can be divided into three categories: free speech rights (FSR), free speech culture (FSC), and speech decency (SD).
  • Clarity in distinguishing between these three values helps to clarify the different rights and interests in play.
  • Being precise about which free speech value is being discussed is important and can lead to a better understanding of the law and to more effective debates about cultural issues.

Click HERE for original. Published December 18, 2022

To reduce mass incarceration, reduce violence [Keith Humphreys, Slow Boring]

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  • Violent crime has halted a decade-long decline in incarceration, threatening reformers’ progress.
  • Strategies to reduce violence include better policing, expanding Medicaid, raising taxes on alcohol, street outreach, restoring abandoned housing, and reducing access to firearms.
  • Reducing violence would benefit everyone and re-energize progress towards a more reasonable and equitable criminal justice system.

Click HERE for original. Published December 22, 2022

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