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CategoryPeter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]

I Want an Automobile for Christmas [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 23, 2022
251 views
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  • American Automotive companies will benefit from revised NAFTA tariffs and subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act.
  • These have been updated by the Biden Administration and will put a significant strain on foreign imports.
  • Electric vehicles will be subsidized and those made in North America will benefit the most.
  • European companies are not meeting the requirements of the NAFTA tariffs, so they will struggle to compete with American Automotive.
  • The Biden Administration is likely to continue with punitive tariffs, meaning foreign imports will become increasingly scarce in North America.

link to original vlog published December 23, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OG1q9gdxDq0

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Where in the World: Quartzite and Greentech [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 21, 2022
298 views
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  • Green Tech solar and wind are heralded as a cure-all, however the process of producing PV cells is extraordinarily damaging to the environment.
  • Silicon, which is used to produce PV cells, is mined and refined with a blast furnace, often powered by coal, making the carbon footprint of the production process extreme.
  • Solar panels are not effective in most cities due to lack of sun, needing to run five times as long to make up for the carbon debt.
  • Wind turbines are a better option; they are non-toxic to manufacture, often created with carbon fiber and aluminum, and can be situated in places that make sense.
  • Wind power is more reliable, reaching higher speeds and able to be used for base load capacity, while solar power is intermittent and cannot be used for peak demand.
  • If solar is not used in the right location, it can become part of the environmental problem instead of the solution.

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LV-D9mKoig – December 21, 2022

Website: https://zeihan.com/where-in-the-world-quartzite-and-greentech/

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Steel: Thinning Supply Lines [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 20, 2022
303 views
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Key Points:

  • Steel fabrication involves two processes: making pig iron from iron ore and coal and creating hot and cold rolled steels.
  • The US is the world leader in cold rolled steel, but has to import most of its pig iron due to environmental regulations and foreign subsidies.
  • Indiana is a major exception, with half of US pig iron and 25% of all US steel coming from the state.
  • The US is able to produce economical hot rolled steel from recycled steel.
  • Due to sanctions and war, Ukraine is no longer a reliable source of pig iron, leaving Brazil as the US’s primary source.
  • Indiana is well-positioned to weather US steel’s struggles due to its existing foundries and infrastructure.

link to original vlog published December 20, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5B2WTFxw3w

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JDAMs: Ukrainian Bombs Get Smarter [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 19, 2022
306 views
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  • The US has provided Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMS) to the Ukraine, which are bombs with fins and a GPS transceiver attached to them, increasing their accuracy and making them cheaper than before.
  • With JDAMS, the Ukraine can now engage in offensive air attack missions, allowing them to target Russian targets within range and with pinpoint accuracy.
  • This technology can change the tactical and strategic picture of the Ukraine War, giving the Ukraine an advantage in the conflict.

link to original vlog published December 19, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qQeyi4bBHU

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Ukraine: The Problems and Potential of Plopping for Patriots [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 16, 2022
216 views
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  • Possibility of US sending Patriot missile systems to Ukraine: US has been giving weapons to Ukraine that are not needed by US forces and are mostly from before the War on Terror.
  • Weapons must be old enough that if they fell into Russian hands, it would not give them an advantage.
  • Weapons must be something the Ukrainians can operate themselves, avoiding Western forces directly confronting Russian forces.
  • Patriot missile system may now be in play as Russians have been targeting civilian infrastructure and have been found to have torture chambers for children.

link to original vlog published December 16, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_DyC0_K1xI

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The Fusion Breakthrough: 70 Years in the Making [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 15, 2022
295 views
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  • The Biden Administration and Department of Energy have announced the successful achievement of the first exothermic fusion reaction, which produces more energy than was put in.
  • Fusion has been a goal of research for the past 70 years, with the potential to generate huge amounts of electricity with zero carbon footprint.
  • Despite this major breakthrough, there are still many steps to go before commercial-grade fusion reactors are available. These steps include scaling up the energy required to power the lasers, designing and building the facility, producing tritium, and transmission of the energy.
  • The Biden Administration has committed to a project to develop a commercial-grade reactor within 10 years, however it is likely to take decades before tritium and superconductor issues are solved, and Fusion is available at scale.

link to original vlog published December 15, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjybBP2ohbo

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COVID: China’s Problem Child [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 14, 2022
193 views
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  • There is a situation brewing in China resulting from the late November/early December protests, leading to a fast-spreading outbreak that is difficult to measure.
  • The Chinese have discontinued their use of social monitoring for Covid and have allowed provinces and local governments to lessen restrictions for the first time.
  • The scale of the situation is difficult to comprehend, with the Chinese population being older, more diabetic, and lacking natural immunity.
  • Vaccines are barely functional against the current strain, and the Chinese have limited access to critical care.
  • If the current strain is worse than measles, a death rate of 100 per 100,000 infections is likely to be much higher.
  • The Chinese Health System is inadequate to face this crisis, and many businesses and testing facilities are already closed.
  • It is likely that China will be offline from a manufacturing point of view for at least the next three to four months.

link to original vlog published December 14, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0BNUF9ItmQ

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Japan’s New Toy: The Tomahawk Missile [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 13, 2022
313 views
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  • The Japanese Defense Ministry has announced that the US has agreed to sell Japan several hundred Tomahawk cruise missiles.
  • This is a big deal as Japan has the world’s second largest Blue Water Navy and would do well in a fight against the Chinese Navy.
  • Japan is part of the first island chain which separates the Chinese littoral from the rest of the world, making it vulnerable to Chinese weapon systems.
  • Tomahawks have a range of 1,000 miles with a 1,000 pound warhead and are difficult to detect or intercept.
  • The US has rarely sold this type of weapon to anyone other than itself and the UK, making it a major strategic development as Japan and Australia now have the capability of independently destroying China’s economic links to the world.

link to original vlog published December 13, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jK54VH_IE5s

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Where in the World: Tenaya and Climate Change [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
December 12, 2022
259 views
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  • The Earth’s temperature is expected to rise by various estimates, but these estimates are based on educated guesses and simulations due to limited data.
  • Climate change can lead to more erratic weather patterns, especially in areas with limited sources of wind and humidity, such as California, Portland, and Seattle.
  • The further a region is from the temperate, humid zone, the more prone it is to extreme temperature fluctuations.
  • Most of the world’s population lives in humid regions, but these regions often rely on food from less humid areas, which could be impacted by climate change.
  • There may be issues with food supply as a result of climate change, rather than just concerns about climate refugees.

link to original vlog published December 12, 2022: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1iqPZV0X0E

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