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Peter Zeihan – Why the Fed Is Shrinking the Balance Sheet [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 16, 2023
267 views
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  • U.S Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that he plans to shrink the balance sheet down to zero over the course of the next couple of years.
  • The Federal Reserve uses interest rates and money operations to manipulate the financial system to regulate the flow of capital, the cost of capital, and the wider world.
  • From 2008 to two years ago, the Federal Reserve printed currency and used it to purchase Bonds on the second Market.
  • The economy is on sounder footing with record low unemployment levels and moderate to strong growth for three years in a row.
  • As a result, the Federal Reserve is getting out of this business and getting back to normal at three to four times the speed they built the balance sheet up.
  • Typically, this should mean slower economic growth and less funding for emerging technologies and projects that don’t make sense from a cost/benefit analysis.
  • The economy should be more efficient overall, but this is not necessarily good for each individual piece.
  • The Federal Reserve is not done raising rates, and is expected to go up another full percentage point (or more).
  • The Baby Boomers are retiring, which means their money is rapidly draining away from the system, and at the same time the Federal Reserve is tightening policy.
  • Over the next two to three years, this will result in a global reduction in available capital of at least a third, and a similar number of people employed in the financial sector in the U.S.

Published February 16, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Why the Fed Is Shrinking the Balance Sheet

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Peter Zeihan – Next on the Chopping Block: Moldova [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 15, 2023
244 views
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  • Moldova is a small country located between the Carpathian Mountains and the Black Sea that has been used as a training ground for Russian intelligence agencies.
  • The Russians have used their political influence in the country to engineer the fall of the government.
  • Whoever controls Moldova has been able to determine which way the armies can flow.
  • The Eastern edge of Moldova, called Transnistra, declared independence in 1992 with Russian sponsorship and has maintained independence ever since.
  • Russia has maintained a strong presence in the country and has worked to make sure that the government of Moldova is as non-functional as possible.
  • During the Ukraine war, Russia has tried to use Moldova as a wedge either to manipulate refugees coming out of Ukraine or to launch missiles into Ukrainian targets.
  • If Ukraine falls, Moldova is the next target.
  • If Ukraine wins, Ukrainian or NATO military action against the Russian troops in Transnistra could fold Moldova into the European and the NATO family of countries.

Published February 15, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Next on the Chopping Block: Moldova

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Peter Zeihan – How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry? [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics]
February 14, 2023
239 views
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  • Russian oil production – 500,000 barrels/day, 1/2 of 1% of global production, 10% of Russian exports
  • Permafrost – Damage to wells takes 30 years to repair, without oil services firms
  • European oil & refined products ban – Reduces demand for Russian product, break-even price for Russian crude is between $40 & $60/barrel
  • Friday seminar – Covers economic impacts of war one year out, including oil & disruptions, natural gas, raw Commodities, Agriculture, & entire supply chain

Published February 14, 2023

Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – How Stable Is the Russian Oil Industry?

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The Simple Explanation for All These Flying Objects [Juliette Kayyem, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
February 13, 2023
293 views
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• The U.S. military has recently shot down three unidentified objects in the sky over Alaska, northern Canada, and Lake Huron.
• This follows the identification and downing of a Chinese surveillance balloon earlier this month.
• The U.S. is now looking for more things in the sky and has lowered its standard for shooting objects out of the sky.
• The White House should quickly disclose the nature of the objects now in U.S. possession, even if they are nothing significant.
• It is possible that the U.S. is under a new threat or finally seeing more evidence of an old threat, but it is also possible that none of this is new or terribly threatening.

Published February 13, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Juliette Kayyem’s original post The Simple Explanation for All These Flying Objects

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Peter Zeihan – It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane, It’s a Chinese Spy Balloon… [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 13, 2023
284 views
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  • Chinese were attempting to conduct surveillance on US military facilities, specifically ICBM launch facilities, using a balloon.
  • Chinese leadership has been making catastrophic mistakes in various areas due to lack of dissent and surrounding themselves with yes-men.
  • US detected the balloon and tracked it, gathering digital renderings of the structure and its emissions.
  • Chinese got little to no information from the effort, while US got a better look at Chinese spy technology and capabilities.
  • Incident has exposed the dysfunction and stupidity of Chinese National Security Experts.

Published February 13, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – It’s a Bird, It’s a Plane, It’s a Chinese Spy Balloon…

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Ukraine Has the Battlefield Edge [Gil Barndollar, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
February 12, 2023
266 views
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• Russia mobilized 300,000 reservists in September to stabilize its front as winter set in.
• Despite recent successes in Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukrainian leaders are now warning that a new Russian offensive is imminent.
• Russian reservists are mostly men who previously served as one-year conscripts, with an average age of 35.
• Russian troops have demonstrated a deficit of discipline, making them vulnerable to determined Ukrainian defenders.
• Ukrainian success has come down to skillful use of modern weapons against this incompetent and demoralized enemy.
• U.S. training and advising have been almost as significant as the hardware in Ukraine’s success.
• Deteriorating morale on the front lines and at home is mutually reinforcing, making it harder for Russia to fill its penal battalions.
• Putin’s reluctance to mobilize is driven by fear of a political backlash to the call-up.
• Ukraine appears to have lost the manpower advantage, but Russia’s increased numbers are unlikely to overcome Ukrainian will and skill.

Published February 12, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Gil Barndollar’s original post Ukraine Has the Battlefield Edge

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Peter Zeihan – Why Are My Eggs So D*** Expensive? [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 10, 2023
305 views
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• Eggs prices have significantly increased due to an outbreak of avian flu in the Midwest about a year ago.
• Chickens have to be raised for 2–6 months before they can lay eggs, meaning prices won‘t go back down for 3–4 months.
• The Ukraine War has caused a disruption in wheat production, with corn and oil seeds being favored due to their higher income potential.
• If the Russians succeed in their Spring offensive, they are likely to target food production and transport, resulting in the loss of Ukraine being the world‘s 5th largest exporter of wheat, 4th largest exporter of corn, and top oil seeds exporter.
• Prices may not go back down for a year or more.

Published February 10, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Why Are My Eggs So D*** Expensive?

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Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 9, 2023
270 views
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• Russia has always sought to expand their territory to gain buffer space, reach geographic barriers, and forward position their forces.
• Ukraine is not an access point to Russia‘s most important territories, Romania and Poland.
• If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, they will eventually come for Romania and Poland, and will use every tool available, including nuclear weapons.
• If Ukraine succeeds, they must cross the border into Russia to disrupt Logistics and prevent industrial plant from contributing to the war effort.
• The war will become more intense before it is resolved and Russia has never backed down from a war without suffering mass casualties.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War Is Just Getting Started

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Geopolitical Impact of Natural Disasters: Ice Storm Edition [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 8, 2023
203 views
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• Michael Navrystery is the Director of Analysis at Signing Geopolitics based out of Austin, Texas
• Recent cold weather has caused a significant ice storm leading to tree limbs falling down around the city
• Utility poles, cables, coatings, and transformers are all part of the global supply chain coming from various sources
• Copper ore is primarily produced out of Chile with wires made in the US, Germany, or Japan; coatings come from the Gulf Coast
• With the cold weather in Texas in Feb 2021, the chemicals industry faced delays of months to a year
• Transformers are made of steel and other technical components with the largest exporter being China
• With EU and China upheaval, U.S. sourcing managers face higher costs, longer lead times, and greater delays
• Solutions will take time and capital to restore and move components to North America, with increased investment in the industry necessary to eliminate risk.

Published February 8, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Geopolitical Impact of Natural Disasters: Ice Storm Edition

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Peter Zeihan – Earthquakes Wreak Havoc on Turkey and Syria [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
February 7, 2023
292 views
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• On February 6th, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit the city of Gesantep in South Central Turkey, causing significant devastation.
• Early death estimates are already over 2,000 and are expected to increase to over 20,000 within a week due to the lack of earthquake–resistant infrastructure.
• Earthquakes often provide opportunities for diplomatic breakthroughs, and in this case Russia and Sweden may be able to provide emergency assistance in order to gain political advantage in Turkey.
• The response to the earthquake must be quick, as those buried in the rubble will be gone after a few days.

Published February 7, 2023
Visit YouTube to read Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – Earthquakes Wreak Havoc on Turkey and Syria

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