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TSMC Earnings, Geographic Flexibility, The 7nm Question [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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• TSMC reported its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant.
• TSMC is taking share from Intel, and increasing its share within the foundry business.
• TSMC is a service business, not just a pure production business, and is looking to expand its global footprint to meet customer needs.
• TSMC is working to reduce costs by building up the semiconductor supply ecosystem in the US and Japan, with government support.
• TSMC is expanding its geographic reach, likely in response to customer demand for “Made in America” chips.
• TSMC’s pricing will reflect the value of geographic flexibility, and the company is confident that its 7nm process will remain a large and long-lasting node.
• The question remains as to whether specialty applications will backfill 7nm capacity, as the cost of the process is much higher and the benefits may not be as great for analog chips.
• TSMC is working closely with customers to develop specialty and differentiated technologies to drive additional wave of structural demand from consumer, RF, connectivity and other applications.

Published January 17, 2023.

Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post TSMC Earnings, Geographic Flexibility, The 7nm Question

Chips and China [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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  • Intel’s integrated model of designing and manufacturing its own chips enabled it to have high margins, but it was disrupted by the rise of modular chip companies like TSMC.
  • TSMC created a new market for chip designers by enabling them to start their own companies without needing to build their own fabs.
  • ASML’s 300-nanometer process and extreme ultraviolet lithography machines enabled TSMC and Samsung to increase their output and margins, and eventually forced Intel to become a customer.
  • ASML’s EUV machines are made of over 100,000 parts, cost approximately $120 million, and require over 800 suppliers, including Zeiss and TRUMPF.
  • In 2012, TSMC, Intel, and Samsung all invested in ASML to help the company finish the EUV project.
  • TSMC had three reasons to commit to EUV: a multi-decade relationship with ASML, the need to manufacture smaller lots of greater variety, and Apple’s willingness to pay for the fastest chips.
  • China has the challenge of re-creating the foundry supply chain from the ground up, but has three advantages: it is easier to follow a path than to forge a new one, it has benefited from technological sharing, and it has unlimited money and motivation.
  • China is also building up its trailing edge fabs, which are still using U.S. equipment, and is likely to become the largest supplier of these chips.
  • The Biden administration’s sanctions are designed to not touch this part of the industry, but this creates a new liability for the U.S. and more danger for Taiwan.
  • In the long run, the U.S. may have given up a permanent economic advantage, and in the short run, the chip ban has raised the risk of conflict between the U.S. and China.

Click HERE for original. Published October 25, 2022

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