• Trump’s beliefs became less popular when he became president, and a similar phenomenon occurred after a major conservative victory (the Supreme Court overturning Roe).
• Americans’ opinions shifted heavily in a pro-choice direction after a long period of stalemate, regardless of political affiliation.
• The author speculates that the effect may be due to a thermostatic effect, where voters want some medium amount of abortion, and if they hear that pro-abortion forces are winning, they say they’re against abortion.
• However, the author found no clear turn against gay marriage in 2015 after the Supreme Court ruling, and no effect on people’s opinion of government-run health care after Obamacare was passed in 2010.
• The author suggests that the public may only backlash against conservative victories, due to liberals controlling more of the media, or because liberalism is “on the right side of history”.
• The author also suggests that it may have to do with how quickly people can find a case of the new law going wrong, or it may be random.
Published January 19, 2023
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