• Senator Dianne Feinstein has not yet announced whether she is retiring, but the race to replace her has already begun.
• The 2024 contest will be the first wide-open Democratic Senate primary in California since 1992, when Feinstein was first elected to the seat.
• The field is quickly getting crowded with U.S. Representatives Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, and Barbara Lee expected to join.
• The contest will offer voters a choice between three distinct eras of Democratic thinking: Porter, Schiff, and Lee.
• A Democrat is almost guaranteed to win the Senate seat in 2024, as California hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1988.
• Female candidates have often had an advantage in California Democratic primaries due to women accounting for close to 60% of Democratic voters.
• Porter and Schiff have similar voting records, but Porter is seen as a more committed progressive and crusading champion.
• Lee may further hinder Porter’s ability to consolidate liberal voters due to her uncompromising liberal profile.
• Geography is also a factor, as candidates from Northern California have often beaten those from the south in statewide Democratic primaries.
• All candidates will need to expand beyond the MSNBC/Democratic Twitter base to reach millions of voters who are not paying attention now.
• Most California experts give Schiff a slight edge, but all expect a dynamic and unpredictable contest.
Published February 3, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Ronald Brownstein’s original post Who Will Replace Dianne Feinstein?
