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February 4, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

F

• A U.S. Air Force F-22 fighter jet fired a missile to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon 6 miles off the South Carolina coast.
• The balloon had been flying above the U.S. for the last four days and was the size of three buses and weighed more than 1,000 pounds.
• U.S. defense officials took steps to protect against the balloon’s collection of sensitive information and the Navy will recover the equipment from the shallow waters where it fell.
• It is believed that the balloon was trying to gather intelligence information and the incident has been used by Republicans to score political points.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled his planned visit to Beijing over the incident and it has offered Biden’s opponents an opportunity to say he is not countering China strongly enough.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 4, 2023

Elan Lee, Co-Creator of Exploding Kittens [Tim Ferriss]

E

• Elan Lee is a game designer, Primetime Emmy, Peabody Award, and IndieCade Trailblazer Award winner.
• He believes the most important part of a game is the core gameplay loop and that games are tools for people to have fun with each other.
• He and his team developed Poetry for Neanderthals, which uses single syllable words to translate sentences.
• They used the Kitty Test Pilots program to test prototypes and provide feedback.
• Exploding Kittens was described as Russian roulette with a deck of cards.
• The Kickstarter campaign raised almost $9 million.
• Elan believes in creating a core gameplay loop and building the surrounding components to emphasize it.
• He recommends playing Poetry for Neanderthals, SET, and Settlers of Catan.
• Exploding Kittens started out as a 100% direct-to-consumer business, but now retail accounts for 60%.
• Elan met his mentor, Jordan Weisman, at Microsoft and they started a clothing company.
• Elan warns against stretch goals that involve manufacturing and fulfillment.
• Exploding Kittens was a huge success on Kickstarter and Amazon.
• Elan and his team have put systems in place to remain in control of the company.
• Elan is passionate about creating tools to bring joy to people’s lives and partnering with people who have a genuine love for their audience.
• Tim Ferriss believes it is important to be aware of the seduction of the algorithm.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit The Tim Ferriss Show to find the original interview Elan Lee, Co-Creator of Exploding Kittens

Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

C

• China’s real estate sector is facing a crisis, with developers defaulting on bonds and a large backlog of troubled projects.
• The construction boom has been the main driver of China’s unbalanced, investment-heavy, consumption-poor growth.
• In the late 1990s, real estate accounted for 8% of GDP, but by 2021 it had risen to 25%.
• In a single generation, China has built enough homes to house a billion people.
• The IMF report shows the Chinese authorities in a relatively calm mood, but Western observers are skeptical.
• Beijing has shifted from a restrictive and deflationary course to one of re-stimulating the real estate economy.
• A key challenge to restoring confidence is the large backlog of partially built housing.
• To stabilize the Chinese real estate market, a commitment of 5% of GDP is needed.
• If Beijing succeeds in managing the fallout, it would be an example of macro-prudential economic management on a world historic scale.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

February 3, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

F

• Mike Pence recently proposed replacing the New Deal with a “better deal” by privatizing Social Security and cutting domestic spending.
• Republicans believe that cutting taxes and staying out of economic affairs will lead to wealth trickling down and creating more jobs.
• Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves refuses to accept an expansion of Medicaid, which is putting 38 rural hospitals in danger of collapsing.
• The Fifth Circuit recently ruled that a federal law prohibiting people who are under a domestic restraining order from owning a gun is unconstitutional.
• President Joe Biden and the Democrats are reviving the theory embraced by members of both parties between 1933 and 1981, which involves the federal government regulating business, providing a basic social safety net, investing in infrastructure, and protecting civil rights.
• Biden is also bringing supply chains home, rebuilding foreign alliances, and investing in research and development.
• The January 2021 jobs report showed an astonishing 517,000 new jobs added and unemployment falling to 3.4%.
• Biden believes that the next three to four years will determine what the country looks like for the next four to five decades.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 3, 2023

 

The French Are in a Panic Over “le Wokisme” [Thomas Chatterton Williams, The Atlantic]

T

• The Tocqueville Conversations was a two-day “taboo-free discussion” among public intellectuals about the crisis of Western democracies, with a focus on the American social-justice ideology known as “wokeness.”
• Rokhaya Diallo, a French West African journalist, social-justice activist, and media personality, was one of the few nonwhite speakers and the sole practicing Muslim.
• The French have long prided themselves on having a system of government that doesn’t recognize racial or ethnic designations, but recently American-style identity politics has piqued the interest of a new and more diverse generation.
• During the conference, Diallo argued that minority experiences may be more visible now thanks to social media, which poses a challenge to traditional “elite” knowledge production.
• Diallo was isolated from the rest of the panel and hissed at by the audience, and the moderator refused to concede even the theoretical possibility that any knowledge can be derived from identity.
• The incident caused the author to recalibrate some of his assumptions and appreciate more keenly just how easily anti-wokeness can succumb to a dogmatism as rigid as the one it seeks to oppose.
• In France, the controversy over “le wokisme” is almost always a proxy for a deeper concern about Islam and terror on the European continent, and those seen as permissive of wokeness are presumed to be indulging “islamo-gauchisme.”
• France’s vehement reaction to wokeism is shaped by its complex relationship with America and its own history of homegrown jihad and concerns about domineering Yankee influence.
• The New York Times’ headline following the beheading of Samuel Paty was seen as exonerating his assassin, which was painful for many French people of all ethnicities and religious affiliations.
• Macron and Blanquer, the Minister of National Education, have been consistent and powerful opponents of woke ideology, believing that treating women and minority groups as different and special is antithetical to equality.
• Blanquer’s rigid devotion to the principle of universalism entails a certain blindness to often valid minority concerns.
• Activists and those listening to them have looked to America for a vocabulary to express what is happening in their own country, whether or not that vocabulary fully makes sense.
• In 2010, the U.S. State Department invited French politicians and activists to a leadership program to help them strengthen the voice and representation of ethnic groups that have been excluded from government.
• The French elections last spring showed that an identity-driven illiberalism long active on the right is gaining force on the left, with significant numbers of minority voters feeling ignored and misunderstood.
• The French mainstream is correct to note that wokeness is philosophically incoherent and dangerous, as it subordinates human psychology to sweeping platitudes and self-certain dictates.
• Cancel culture is real in the U.S. and has been toxic to debate and institutional decision making.
• Resistance to wokeism’s more ambitious designs has been widespread and ethnically diverse.
• Suppressing wokeism in France has not gone well either.
• The goal should be to achieve genuine universalism, rather than to eliminate difference.
• The challenge is to channel woke impulses responsibly, while refusing to succumb to the myopia of group identity.
• The French model of universal citizenship is superior in principle, but the American reflex to interpret social life through imperfect notions of identity can still perceive real experiences that otherwise get dismissed.
• The future belongs to the multiethnic society that finds a way to synthesize the French and American models.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Thomas Chatterton Williams’s original post The French Are in a Panic Over <em>le Wokisme</em>

Why Aren’t More People Running for President? [Russell Berman, The Atlantic]

W

• Joe Biden will deliver the State of the Union address at the start of his third year in office, but there are currently no other declared presidential candidates.
• Nikki Haley is expected to kick off her campaign in Charleston next week, and other potential Republican candidates include Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, and Mike Pompeo.
• Biden has been content to use the new House Republican majority as a foil, and his State of the Union address will likely focus on conciliation over confrontation.
• Biden allies expect him to formally announce his reelection bid sometime after the State of the Union, but it could still be months away.
• No Democrats of note have made any moves to challenge Biden for the nomination, and Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire are hoping to ensure that the GOP does not leave them behind.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Russell Berman’s original post Why Aren’t More People Running for President?

The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought [Joseph Politano, Apricitas Economics]

T

• US added more than half a million jobs in January, exceeding consensus forecasts and notching the largest monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls since July.
• Revisions to growth over the last year represent the largest sign of strength in the labor market.
• Employment has now more than fully recovered in all major industry groups except Leisure & Hospitality and Government.
• Wage growth continues to decelerate, with private industry wages growing 5.1% over the year ending in Q4 and average hourly earnings for private-sector workers growing 4.4% over the year ending in January 2023.
• Unemployment rate has sunk to its lowest level since 1969 and prime-age employment rates remain just 0.4% below pre-pandemic peaks.
• Sectors that had demand pulled forward during the early pandemic—tech, transportation, warehousing, homebuilding, and manufacturing—are holding up better than previously thought.
• The share of working-age adults with a job is still slightly below the 80.6% notched just before COVID, significantly below the 81.9% achieved in the late 1990s.
• Comprehensive data on wages and benefits from the Employment Cost Index shows wage growth decelerating significantly over the last two quarters.
• Chair Powell and the FOMC acknowledged the start of disinflationary process at their meeting this week, stressing that they don’t believe they have done enough to contain inflation yet.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Apricitas Economics to read Joseph Politano’s original post The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought

You are now living through Cold War 2 [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

Y

• The Spy Balloon of 2023 is a sign that Cold War 2 is already here, and tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating.
• Calls for a return to the engagement strategy of the 1980s-2010s are coming from China and the U.S., but they are unlikely to be successful.
• The events of 2019-22, including the Hong Kong protests and China’s repression of the Uyghurs, will not be forgotten.
• China’s recent overtures have not been matched by more peaceful actions on the ground, and U.S. intelligence officials allege that China is preparing for action against Taiwan.
• China’s neighbors are forming balancing coalitions and seeking increased military cooperation with the U.S.
• The trend may be away from Chimerica, but there will still be plenty of trade between the two countries unless and until a major war breaks out.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post You are now living through Cold War 2

What Is Scientific Discovery Worth? [Paul M. Sutter, Nautilus]

W

• Neutrinos have been a mystery for nearly 100 years, and the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) was created to try to catch them.
• DUNE is a $1.7 billion project funded mostly by the Department of Energy, and it involves the most powerful neutrino beams ever created, 10,000 tons of ultra-pure liquid argon, and 800,000 tons of excavated rock.
• Neutrinos are everywhere, but they are so small and charge-free that they are difficult to catch and study.
• Other neutrino detectors, such as Super-Kamiokande and IceCube, have been built, but they have only managed to capture a handful of neutrinos.
• DUNE is now running about a decade behind schedule and over budget, and the DOE is questioning whether the project is worth the investment.
• The only way to find out if DUNE will be successful is to build it out and flip it on, but this raises the question of what scientific discovery is worth.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Paul M. Sutter’s original post What Is Scientific Discovery Worth?

TGIF: 99 Spy Balloons [Nellie Bowles, The Free Press]

T

Create a short summary of the article above using bullet points. Please include some interesting relevant details.

• Trump distances himself from the best thing he did: Operation Warp Speed, which cut through bureaucratic red tape.
• Nikki Haley is about to announce her presidential run.
• Covid emergency era ends in May.
• House GOP to investigate Biden and his family, gain-of-function research, and various China-related issues.
• Chinese spy balloon seen over Billings, Montana.
• Paul Pelosi attacked at home by a lunatic.
• Gawker shuts down for the second time.
• Massachusetts offering prisoners reduced sentences for donating organs.
• Hispanic Democrats want to ban Latinx from state documents.
• AP test in African American History has been the center of the latest education skirmish.
• President of Heritage calling to cut military spending.
• French had a funny response to being told their name is racist.
• Hamilton 68 dashboard for tracking “Russian disinformation” turns out to be a total fraud.
• George Santos (Brazilian drag queen and serial fabulist Kitara Ravanche) resigns from House committees.
• Washington Post publishes an essay about how objectivity in newsgathering is bad.
• Newsroom leaders across the country agree that objectivity has to go.
• The Free Press is offering a sweepstakes prize of a one-on-one Zoom with the editor-in-chief.
• The Supreme Court case of Masterpiece Cakeshop in Colorado, where the baker refused to make a same-sex wedding cake, was recently revisited.
• The baker lost the case again, and the article suggests that other bakers should be sought out instead.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Nellie Bowles’s original post TGIF: 99 Spy Balloons

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