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Intel Earnings, Intel’s Plunging Margin, The Dividend Question [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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• Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is leading the company through a multi-year turnaround, attempting to catch up to TSMC in terms of process and create a customer service organization from scratch.
• Intel’s current financial woes are the result of years of decisions and investments not made, leading to a mismatch between decisions and consequences.
• Intel is still paying a dividend despite its need for cash, likely due to its long history of dividend payments and the need to maintain investor support.
• Intel’s adjusted free cash flow was negative $4 billion, and the company is forecasting a gross margin of 34% for the next quarter.
• Intel is taking an especially large hit from losing market share to rivals, and is eliminating jobs and slowing spending on new plants in an effort to save as much as $10 billion.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Intel Earnings, Intel’s Plunging Margin, The Dividend Question

Inside the audacious new scheme to erase LGBTQ people from Michigan schools [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

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• Great Schools Initiative (GSI): A newly-formed conservative group launching a plan to remake Michigan public schools by exploiting a Michigan statute that allows parents to opt their children out of sex education.
• Led by co-founders Nathan Pawl, Matthew Nelson, and Monica Yatooma, GSI seeks to redefine “sex education” to include a teacher wearing a rainbow pin, teaching about the women’s suffrage movement, the availability of a gender-neutral bathroom, any book with LGBTQ characters, and any acknowledgment of LGBTQ pride week.
• GSI plans to overwhelm Michigan schools with litigation, funded by the far-right Thomas More Society. The group has access to the LET THEM BE Facebook group, which has over 55,000 members.
• GSI’s website features testimonials from fake Michigan parents, and it is unclear who is funding the group’s operations.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post Inside the audacious new scheme to erase LGBTQ people from Michigan schools

Prenatal Testing Deep Dive [Emily Oster, ParentData]

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• Dr. Aaron Carroll is a professor of pediatrics at Indiana University School of Medicine and a health policy researcher.
• He has written extensively on the evolution of prenatal testing, including cell-free fetal DNA testing, amniocentesis, CVS tests, and PGT.
• He explains that cell-free fetal DNA testing is extremely accurate for detecting the primary trisomies (21, 13, 18), with a 99.4% detection rate and a 0.1% false-positive rate.
• Invasive testing is also highly accurate, but carries a small risk of miscarriage.
• Ultrasound findings rarely provide much information if cell-free fetal DNA testing has already been done, and no additional information if invasive testing has been done.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post Prenatal Testing Deep Dive

Recent layoffs at Big Tech don’t spell economic doom [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

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• Emily Stewart is a writer for Vox who wrote a piece about how widespread layoffs in the tech and media sectors don’t necessarily foretell broader problems in the economy.
• The next day, Vox Media announced layoffs of approximately 7% of the company’s staff, which some people used as an opportunity to dunk on Stewart.
• Stewart points out that the widespread attention given to the Vox layoffs illustrates her point.
• She explains that the media industry is an extreme outlier in terms of attention paid versus objective economic significance.
• Stewart notes that there has never been a month that didn’t feature a million people losing their jobs, and that since the pandemic settled down, we’ve been in a two-year period of structurally low layoffs.
• She also points out that big tech companies have been super-sizing at an incredible pace, and that now that they’re contracting, lots of places would like to hire engineers.
• Stewart suggests that the upside of the layoffs is that it will make it easier for people who have startup ideas to get them off the ground, and that it will also make it easier for government agencies to use signing bonuses and other private sector tactics to attract and retain labor.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post Recent layoffs at Big Tech don’t spell economic doom

Can AI Help Us Be Better People? [Brian Gallagher, Nautilus]

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• Jon Rueda and Bianca Rodriguez have published a paper arguing that AI assistants could help us improve our morality.
• AI models can make us more aware of our psychological limitations when making decisions, and provide relevant factual information.
• The Socratic assistant, or SocrAI, is based on the idea that through dialogue we can advance our knowledge and improve our moral judgements.
• AI-based voice assistants have not been developed commercially yet, but there is interest in the idea.
• The Socratic assistant would not be trained on Socrates’ words, but would try to emulate his Socratic method.
• There are concerns about data protection and the potential to shape autonomy and agency, as well as deskilling moral abilities.
• AI could help us be more like an ideal observer, but could also reproduce and amplify human biases.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Brian Gallagher’s original post Can AI Help Us Be Better People?

Republicans’ 2024 Magical Thinking [McKay Coppins, The Atlantic]

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• Donald Trump has become a problem for the Republican party, and many GOP officials and strategists are hoping for something to happen that will make him go away.
• Some Republicans are hoping for Trump’s “mortal demise,” while others are hoping for a donor revolt or legal troubles to sideline him.
• However, Trump’s legal troubles could actually boost him with the party’s base, and a coordinated donor revolt has not materialized.
• In 2016, Trump’s rivals failed to beat him because they were convinced his self-inflicted demise was imminent.
• The current field of GOP presidential prospects could end up splitting the anti-Trump electorate, and few of the top figures in the party have demonstrated an ability to take on Trump directly.
• Even if another Republican captures the nomination, there’s no guarantee that Trump will go away, as he has suggested he might run an independent spoiler campaign if his party refuses to back him.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read McKay Coppins’s original post Republicans’ 2024 Magical Thinking

Professionalize the police [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Tyre Nichols was fatally beaten by Memphis police, sparking protests across the country and raising the question of what to do about police brutality.
• The “defund the police” movement was a failure, and even Black Americans wanted more spending on policing in their neighborhoods.
• Compared to other developed countries, U.S. police have far fewer hours of training and are more likely to use deadly force.
• Increasing the required hours of police training in America by a factor of 4 or 5 is an obvious policy to try, but some activists are resistant to the idea.
• Professionalizing the police should go beyond training to include education, such as requiring a college degree, which would create positive selection effects and lead to healthier lifestyles.

Published January 29, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Professionalize the police

January 28, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

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• Representatives Jimmy Gomez (D-CA), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Daniel Goldman (D-NY), Andy Kim (D-NJ), Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Joe Neguse (D-CO), Eric Swalwell (D-CA), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Colin Allred (D-TX), Mike Levin (D-CA), Josh Harder (D-CA), Raul Ruiz (D-CA), and Senator Rob Menendez (D-NJ) announced the formation of the Congressional Dads Caucus.
• The caucus was formed in response to the Republicans’ long fight over electing a House speaker, which highlighted the double standard that exists for working dads.
• The caucus is fighting for a national paid family and medical leave program, affordable and high-quality childcare, and the expanded Child Tax Credit.
• On Tuesday, January 24, the Women’s Bureau of the U.S. Department of Labor released its initial findings from the new National Database of Childcare Prices, which showed that childcare expenses are untenable for families throughout the country.
• The U.S. spends significantly less than other high-wage countries on early childcare and education, ranking 35th out of 37 countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
• The formation of the Dads Caucus and the release of the childcare prices findings suggest a shift in the perception of childcare as a societal issue and a reworking of the role of the government.

Published January 29, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 28, 2023

Can The Housing Market Stabilize? [Joseph Politano, Apricitas Economics]

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• The US housing market is in a nearly unprecedented place due to rising interest rates and the pandemic.
• Mortgage rates have started to retreat, but the housing market is still trying to adjust to higher rates.
• Real private residential fixed investment has fallen 20% throughout the year and now sits well below pre-pandemic levels.
• The number of units under construction is still near all-time highs, protecting employment in the housing sector.
• Home prices are still elevated, but the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index just took a dip for the first time in years.
• The homebuying market remains anything but stable, with new home sales dipping below the pre-pandemic average.
• The housing market feels more like a passenger than a driver, with movements in the labor market dominating the housing market.

Published January 28, 2023
Visit Apricitas Economics to read Joseph Politano’s original post Can The Housing Market Stabilize?

Dubai Paid Beyonce $24M. She Gave Them Her Integrity. [Tanya Gold, The Free Press]

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• Beyoncé headlined the grand opening of Dubai’s newest luxury hotel, Atlantis The Royal, and was reportedly paid $24 million for the occasion.
• Dubai is a place where tyranny meets hyper-capitalism and Westerners come for the indentured servitude and the weather.
• Beyoncé’s latest album is an homage to black queer culture, but she performed none of its songs at the opening, likely due to the country’s stance on homosexuality.
• Other celebrities, such as Rebel Wilson and members of the Kardashian-Jenner dynasty, were also present at the opening.
• Sports figures, such as FIFA president Gianni Infantino and football stars Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, have also been involved in promoting the country.
• These celebrities are being used to normalize tyranny and distract from the suffering of migrant workers in the country.

Published January 28, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Tanya Gold’s original post Dubai Paid Beyonce $24M. She Gave Them Her Integrity.

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