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The fiscal arsonists [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 22, 2023
275 views
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• The U.S. has a law stipulating a maximum amount of debt that the federal government can issue, currently set at about $31.4 trillion.
• In 2011, the Republican-controlled Congress (Tea Party Congress) refused to raise the debt ceiling in order to force the President to agree to spending cuts.
• This was a dangerous move, as it put the U.S. in danger of a sovereign default, which could have caused economic chaos, disruption of trade, and widespread recessions.
• Despite the 2011 debt ceiling crisis being resolved, debt ceiling brinksmanship has become a regular part of the GOP’s political toolkit.
• Currently, Congressional Republicans are holding the process hostage and demanding spending cuts.
• Spending cuts would be beneficial right now, but the correct way to do it is to pass spending cuts in Congress and iron out a budget deal with Biden.
• Debt ceiling brinksmanship is an absolute clown show, making the U.S. look like a banana republic and increasing the risk of recession.
• It is possible that the whole thing is just Congressional Republicans trying to signal toughness and partisanship to their voter base, but this is a boneheaded way of creating political cover.
• Debt ceiling brinksmanship also encourages worse fiscal arsonists who are lurking out there in the margins of the political-economic discourse.

Published January 22, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post The fiscal arsonists

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Remote Work Shifts Costs From Management Onto Employees [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

By Spencer Chen
In Freddie deBoer
January 22, 2023
189 views
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• In the past decade, many services have been created to reduce people’s exposure to other human beings, which people are willing to pay a premium for.
• Remote work shifts financial burdens that once fell on employers onto employees, yet employees don’t complain and even celebrate.
• This has caused a crisis with office space downtown and a deepening of America’s structural housing crisis.
• Remote workers are spending extra money on rent or mortgage for extra space, which is essentially a $12,000 haircut in their total annual compensation.
• People should think critically about what they’re giving up and what they’re now paying for themselves.

Published January 21, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post Remote Work Shifts Costs From Management Onto Employees

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January 21, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
January 21, 2023
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• Roe v. Wade was decided on January 22, 1973, granting physicians the power to determine with a patient whether the patient’s pregnancy should be terminated.
• This decision was rooted in a public health crisis, as states had begun to criminalize abortion in the 1870s, leading to an estimated 200,000-1.2 million illegal abortions a year.
• The rising women’s movement wanted women to have control over their lives, and the evangelical Southern Baptist Convention agreed that abortion should be legal in some cases.
• In 1972, Gallup pollsters reported that 64% of Americans agreed that abortion should be between a woman and her doctor.
• In 1973, the Supreme Court, under Republican Chief Justice Warren Burger, in a decision written by Republican Harry Blackmun, decided Roe v. Wade, legalizing first-trimester abortion.
• Opposition to the eventual Roe v. Wade decision began in 1972, and was a deliberate attempt to polarize American politics.
• Today, about 62% of Americans support the guidelines laid down in Roe v. Wade, about the same percentage that supported it fifty years ago.

Published January 22, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 21, 2023

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January 20, 2023 (Friday) [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
January 20, 2023
217 views
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• Trump dropped a lawsuit against New York attorney general Letitia James after a similar lawsuit yesterday cost him and his lawyer close to a million dollars.
• Trump also backed off on his previous threats to use the debt ceiling to extract concessions from Democrats.
• House Republicans are facing mounting troubles, including Representative Greg Steube’s hospitalization and Representative George Santos’ embarrassing revelations.
• Representative Bill Foster trolled Santos by pointing out the difference between the two parties.
• Representative Jim Jordan has requested information from the Department of Justice, but the DOJ has reminded him that they cannot share information about ongoing investigations.
• The White House has stated that raising the debt ceiling is not a negotiation and that Biden looks forward to discussing strengthening retirement plans and making the wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Africa to urge greater connection between African countries and the U.S. and to build stronger ties than those developed with China or Russia.

Published January 21, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 20, 2023 (Friday)

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How much does aging really hurt a country? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 20, 2023
268 views
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• China’s population has started shrinking a year ahead of schedule, with India projected to surpass China’s population in 2023.
• Aging demographics are a source of national weakness for all industrialized countries, with fertility already low or falling fast everywhere on Earth.
• Aging can reduce living standards by increasing the old-age dependency ratio, ossifying management, and reducing entrepreneurship.
• Research literature generally finds that aging is a drag on productivity, with studies finding a strong negative effect on growth for a number of economic variables.
• Strategies to fight against the tide include building more machines, having workers retire later, and improving capital allocation and education.
• In the long run, solving the aging problem will require figuring out how to entice the populace to have more kids.

Published January 20, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post How much does aging really hurt a country?

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Abortion Pills Will Be the Next Battle in the 2024 Election [Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Atlantic]
January 20, 2023
244 views
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• The abortion debate is shifting to focus on executive-branch actions that influence the availability of abortion drugs.
• The Biden administration has taken multiple steps to expand access to the drugs used in medication abortions, which now account for more than half of all abortions performed in the United States.
• Anti-abortion activists are growing frustrated with the increased reliance on the drugs and are pressing the Republican presidential candidates in 2024 for more forceful action.
• The Biden administration has loosened restrictions on the drugs, allowing women to consult with a doctor via telehealth and then receive the pills via mail.
• The FDA has also allowed pharmacies to dispense the drugs, but 19 red states have passed laws that still require medical professionals to be present when the drugs are administered.
• Republicans are launching a multifront attempt to roll back access to the pills nationwide, including a lawsuit to overturn the original certification and ban mifepristone.
• Abortion-rights advocates are pushing the Biden administration to loosen restrictions even further, such as eliminating the requirement that the professionals prescribing the drugs receive a special certification.
• The issue of access to abortion drugs is likely to shape the 2024 election, with Democrats generally confident they will benefit from any contrast that keeps abortion prominent in the race.

Published January 20, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Ronald Brownstein’s original post Abortion Pills Will Be the Next Battle in the 2024 Election

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January 19, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
January 19, 2023
191 views
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• The US has hit the debt ceiling, and the media is discussing whether Democrats will negotiate with hard-right Republicans who want cuts to domestic spending before raising the debt ceiling.
• Raising revenue to pay for appropriations has historically been the first option, but since 1981, Republicans have made cutting taxes the centerpiece of their economic policy.
• The 2017 Trump tax cuts, especially the cut in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, dramatically increased the deficit without promoting growth.
• The Supreme Court released a statement about the investigation into the leak of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, but the source of the leak remains unknown.
• Judge Donald Middlebrooks of the United States District Court for the Southern District of Florida ordered Trump, his lawyer Alina Habba, and her law firm Habba Madaio & Associates to pay $937,989.39 for attorneys’ fees and costs after they filed a lawsuit the court found to be “completely frivolous” and a bad-faith use of the court system.
• Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced a constitutional amendment to the House to overturn the 2010 Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission Supreme Court decision.

Published January 20, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 19, 2023

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Which Political Victories Cause Backlash? [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By Spencer Chen
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
January 19, 2023
181 views
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• Trump’s beliefs became less popular when he became president, and a similar phenomenon occurred after a major conservative victory (the Supreme Court overturning Roe).
• Americans’ opinions shifted heavily in a pro-choice direction after a long period of stalemate, regardless of political affiliation.
• The author speculates that the effect may be due to a thermostatic effect, where voters want some medium amount of abortion, and if they hear that pro-abortion forces are winning, they say they’re against abortion.
• However, the author found no clear turn against gay marriage in 2015 after the Supreme Court ruling, and no effect on people’s opinion of government-run health care after Obamacare was passed in 2010.
• The author suggests that the public may only backlash against conservative victories, due to liberals controlling more of the media, or because liberalism is “on the right side of history”.
• The author also suggests that it may have to do with how quickly people can find a case of the new law going wrong, or it may be random.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?

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Three books about the technology wars [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 19, 2023
266 views
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• The U.S. and China are in a technological competition, with government policies aimed at dominating strategic high-tech industries poised to reshape the global economy.
• Three technologies are at the heart of the superpower rivalry: semiconductors, wireless networking, and AI.
• The U.S. is winning the semiconductor wars for now, with all the basic components in the hands of either the U.S. or its allies.
• China has kicked the U.S.’s butt in wireless tech, with Huawei dominating the market through a combination of corporate culture, research, IP theft, and state subsidies.
• In AI, Kai-Fu Lee argues that China will be able to dominate the U.S. through plentiful data, ruthless entrepreneurship, engineering talent, and government support.
• However, four years later, many of Lee’s predictions have proven wrong, and it is difficult to assess which country is actually leading in AI technology.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Three books about the technology wars

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What Even is a “Mild” Recession? [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
January 19, 2023
265 views
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• Everyone is anticipating a recession, but no one knows when or how it will come.
• The consensus is that it will be a mild recession, like a splinter in your finger – something annoying but manageable.
• The Scoville test for the economy is an imprecise measurement based on human subjectivity.
• Data points such as industrial production falling, retail sales falling, and the Empire manufacturing index falling to its lowest level since May 2020 are all signs of a slowdown in the economy.
• The Fed is unlikely to budge despite the caution signs, and the worry is that they will go too hard.
• On the other hand, there are some inflationary pockets such as China reopening, labor market gaps, and bond investors going hog wild for bonds.
• It will be a delicate balance between the Fed, the labor market, consumer health, and housing.
• There is a general level of acceptance that rugged individualism distorts how we think about the economy, and if we can create a world where people are taken care of, it will be net positive for everyone.
• Pepsi CEO believes labor costs will be the source of inflation, rather than commodities
• Labor market is expected to remain tight
• This is due to the recent increase in minimum wage and providing insurance to workers who work 24 hours/week

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post What Even is a “Mild” Recession?

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