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Margin and Opportunity [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

M

• Things are still weird in the economy, with speculative mania continuing despite the Fed raising rates.
• Bing could be the new Google as Microsoft goes into AI-Powered search.
• Adam Neumann came out to explain his new company, which is focused on community-owned apartments.
• The economy is a circuit board of people, interacting with each other and other things, money is the electric current.
• Emoconomics is the combination of feelings and expectations, fueled by data.
• George Soros and his work on reflexivity and Keynes and animal spirits show that if prices are bad, people feel bad and the economy feels bad.
• Fischer Black’s 1986 paper Noise states that the price level and rate of inflation are literally indeterminate and determined by expectations.
• Wealth inequality has only gotten worse, and the divergence in ‘vibes’ is demarcated by the widening gap between those that can shrug off inflation and those who cannot.
• The Fed’s primary tool to reset the vibes has been to raise rates, which has a direct impact on consumers.
• The combination of a lack of belief with a breaking macro environment has made it so we can talk ourselves into a downturn through tipping dominoes and feedback loops.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post

Google and Microsoft’s Events, Monetizable Panic, Paradigms and Hardware [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

G

• Google and Microsoft held back-to-back events to showcase their AI-powered search and map features.
• Google’s event was a mess, while Microsoft’s was well-rehearsed and well-coordinated.
• Microsoft’s event was a response to Google’s search dominance, which has more than 90% market share.
• Microsoft’s blog post from 2010 showed their intent to partner with Facebook to take down Google.
• Microsoft’s Corporate Vice President of Search, Yusuf Mehdi, said that roughly half of all searches don’t deliver the job that people want.
• Microsoft’s new OpenAI-powered chat interface is an attempt to address this issue.
• Google is the default search engine in most browsers and on most phones, making it difficult for Bing to displace it.
• Google has responded to threats before, and the messiness of this week suggests they are ready to do so again.
• Bill Gurley’s article “The Freight Train That Is Android” explains how Android is a “moat” to protect Google’s search engine.
• Microsoft’s approach to Bing is to see it as their Android relative to Google Search’s Windows.
• Chat interfaces are annoying to use, and voice is not always an option.
• Google faces real cost concerns as it incorporates AI into search, and conversation AI is very expensive.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Google and Microsoft’s Events, Monetizable Panic, Paradigms and Hardware

“Apartheid” in Jackson, Mississippi [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

&

• Mississippi House, dominated by white Republicans, voted to create a separate court system and police force for portions of Jackson, Mississippi, the second-Blackest city in the US.
• Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba said the proposal “reminds me of apartheid” and is an attempt to “colonize Jackson.”
• The bill would expand the Capitol Complex Improvement District, covering about 50,000 people, and divert 18.75% of sales tax that would otherwise go to Jackson to a Capitol Complex Improvement District project fund.
• The lead author of the bill is Representative Trey Lamar (R), who lives more than 150 miles north of Jackson.
• The Capitol Police force has faced criticism for being involved in multiple shootings and deploying “overzealous tactics” with “little accountability.”
• Mississippi’s bill parallels decades-long efforts to deny Washington D.C. statehood, which is rooted in a desire to limit the power of Black voters.
• Congress has taken control of D.C.’s finances, debts, courts, and prisons, and retains the right to review and nullify any legislation passed by the district’s local government.
• This exclusion of D.C. residents from a voice in Congress contributes to the underrepresentation of voters of color in the American political system.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post “Apartheid” in Jackson, Mississippi

I Thought I Was Saving Trans Kids. Now I’m Blowing the Whistle. [Jamie Reed, The Free Press]

I

• Jamie Reed is a 42-year-old St. Louis native, a queer woman, and politically to the left of Bernie Sanders.
• She has spent her professional life providing counseling to vulnerable populations, including children in foster care, sexual minorities, and the poor.
• For almost four years, she worked at The Washington University School of Medicine Division of Infectious Diseases with teens and young adults who were HIV positive.
• In 2018, she took a job as a case manager at The Washington University Transgender Center at St. Louis Children’s Hospital.
• There was a dramatic increase in teenage girls suddenly declaring they were transgender and demanding immediate treatment with testosterone.
• To begin transitioning, the girls needed a letter of support from a therapist and a single visit to the endocrinologist for a testosterone prescription.
• The profound and permanent effects of the hormone can be seen in a matter of months, including sterility.
• Many of the patients declared they had disorders that no one believed they had, and the doctors privately recognized these false self-diagnoses as a manifestation of social contagion.
• The center downplayed the negative consequences, and emphasized the need for transition.
• Jamie Reed left the clinic in November of last year because she could no longer participate in what was happening there, and is now speaking out about the harm being done to vulnerable patients.
• Jamie Reed worked at the Transgender Center at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, Missouri.
• The center was treating teenage girls and young people from the inpatient psychiatric unit and emergency department of St. Louis Children’s Hospital.
• The doctors at the center viewed gender transition as the solution for these patients, regardless of their suffering or pain.
• Jamie raised concerns about parental rights and consent, as well as desisters and detransitioners.
• She witnessed a heartbreaking case of detransition of a teenage girl who had a double mastectomy and later wanted her breasts back.
• Jamie was reprimanded for her concerns and eventually left the center.
• She brought her concerns to the attention of Missouri’s attorney general and is calling for a moratorium on the hormonal and surgical treatment of young people with gender dysphoria.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Jamie Reed’s original post I Thought I Was Saving Trans Kids. Now I’m Blowing the Whistle.

ADHD Diagnoses in Children [Emily Oster, ParentData]

A

• Parenting can be difficult when there is a concern about a health, developmental, or socioemotional issue with a child.
• Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or attention deficit disorder (ADD) diagnoses have increased over the past several decades.
• It is unclear why the increase has occurred, but it could be due to changes in diagnosis, environmental factors, or heritability.
• Erin O’Connor, a developmental psychologist, weighs in on the topic of ADHD/ADD diagnosis and treatment.
• Questions for the child’s teacher and physician should focus on the observed behavior in both home and school settings, as well as other potential sources for the behavior.
• Diagnosis requires a history of behaviors over time, and parents should compile a list of behaviors that concern them.
• Medication has been proven safe and effective in the treatment of ADD/ADHD symptoms, but there can be side effects.
• It is unclear if ADD/ADHD is overdiagnosed or underdiagnosed, but it may be underdiagnosed among girls and children of color.
• For pre-K children, it can be hard to decipher between developing executive functioning skills and other factors (like learning differences).
• Parents can support executive function skills at home by using timers, breaking up multi-step directions, and establishing routines.
• How parents respond to their child’s challenges is related to their own temperament.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post ADHD Diagnoses in Children

Originalism Is Going to Get Women Killed [Madiba Dennie, The Atlantic]

O

• Originalism is a theory of constitutional interpretation that relies on the “original public meaning” of the Constitution when it was enacted.
• Originalism is marketed as fair and free from favor or prejudice, but its effects are not and will not be fair at all.
• The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals recently relied on originalism in United States v. Rahimi, a case about a law restricting the gun rights of domestic-violence offenders.
• The court concluded that the Second Amendment was violated by the law, because the Founders did not mention women, who are disproportionately victimized by domestic violence.
• The presence of a gun in a domestic-violence situation increases the risk of femicide by more than 1,000 percent.
• The Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen announced a strict new originalist standard for evaluating the constitutionality of laws regulating guns.
• The Fifth Circuit rejected the government’s historical analogues for the statute at issue in Rahimi, because the law disarmed citizens for reasons other than the brazen enforcement of white supremacy.
• Originalism limits who gets to be a part of “our” and who is entitled to the Constitution’s rights and protections, and it makes false claims of objectivity to obscure oppression.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Madiba Dennie’s original post Originalism Is Going to Get Women Killed

February 8, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

F

• U.S. intelligence has determined that the spy balloon found in U.S. airspace was part of a larger Chinese surveillance program operating around the world.
• President Joe Biden issued an executive order in May 2021 to improve the nation’s cybersecurity.
• U.S. intelligence was able to detect the balloon due to the enhanced surveillance of the Biden administration.
• Republicans have complained that Biden didn’t shoot the balloon down earlier, but defense officials said they were collecting intelligence from the device.
• Biden said the balloon did not change the developing patterns between the U.S. and China.
• The U.S. has signed a deal with Japan and the Netherlands to limit exports of semiconductor technologies to China.
• The Republican House has come up with 17 new bills to counter China.
• The Australian Lowy Institute has assessed that China’s isolation because of Covid has set it back, permitting the U.S. to retain its position as the key player in Asia.
• The Senate and the House will receive classified briefings on the balloon and Chinese intelligence this week.
• House speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) complained by tweet that Biden hadn’t mentioned China in the first hour of his State of the Union address.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 8, 2023

How Florida Beat New York [Jerusalem Demsas, The Atlantic]

H

• Hillary Clinton claimed in a 2018 speech that Democratic-leaning states represent the future and Republican ones the last gasps of a dying empire.
• The National Association of Realtors found that Florida and Texas topped the list for domestic migration last year, with New York and California bringing up the rear.
• Florida has gained nine congressional seats while New York has lost eight since 1980.
• The primary driver of the shift in migration preferences is housing costs, not taxes.
• The median New York home was built in 1957; the median Florida home is a full 30 years younger.
• The coronavirus pandemic has weakened office life, thus undermining one of New York City’s greatest historical advantages.
• Cities can enter a sort of doom loop, where declining revenues from taxes and user fees lead governments to cut important government services.
• Blue states aren’t doomed or dying, but even relatively small changes can still lead to acute crises for cities.
• Reversing the dynamic will require blue states to prioritize affordability.

Published February 9, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Jerusalem Demsas’s original post How Florida Beat New York

How AI Can Prompt Your Inner Artist [Jim Davies, Nautilus]

H

• AI-generated art has become increasingly popular in recent years, with programs like Disco Diffusion and Midjourney allowing anyone to create breathtaking images with just a few prompts.
• This has caused a stir in the art world, with professional artists worried about losing work to AI-generated art.
• AI art generators can enrich the art world in other ways, such as allowing more books to be lavishly illustrated and providing more original art for people’s walls.
• The debate about whether AI-generated art counts as art is ongoing, with some arguing that it is missing the communication between the artist and the audience.
• However, AI art can still generate meaningful experiences for viewers, as they can still interpret the art in their own way and appreciate it for what it is.
• AI art tools also allow everyday users to become active participants in the image-generating process, becoming art directors of their own personal collections.

Published February 8, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Jim Davies’s original post How AI Can Prompt Your Inner Artist

Republicans Keep Underestimating Joe Biden [Yair Rosenberg, The Atlantic]

R

• Joe Biden is known for his ability to handle tough crowds, which was evident at the State of the Union address.
• Seven years ago, Biden was sent to sell the Iran nuclear deal to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), a hostile crowd.
• Biden used his political charm and personal attachment to Israel to win over the room and exited to a standing ovation.
• Last night, Biden exceeded expectations with his folksy, straightforward speech, even winning over some critics.
• Biden also enjoyed the heckling from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, turning her into a prop in his performance.
• Biden’s opponents have consistently underestimated him, setting low expectations that he has easily surpassed.

Published February 8, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Yair Rosenberg’s original post Republicans Keep Underestimating Joe Biden

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