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Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

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  • Section 230 is going before the Supreme Court: Are content recommendations covered like moderation? A loss for Google would be an opportunity for Congress to protect essential rights.
  • Section 230 Genesis: The law gives internet platforms legal immunity for almost all third-party content hosted on their sites.
  • Section 230 Implementation: There is widespread support in Congress for overhauling Section 230, but legislative efforts to do so have stalled amid partisan disagreements.
  • Gonzalez v. Google: The case was brought by the family of an American college student alleging that YouTube failed to take down some ISIS terrorist videos and even recommended them to users.
  • The Position on the Stack Matters for Moderation: At the top of the stack are the service providers that people publish to directly, with absolute discretion in their moderation policies, while ISPs are about access with no right to be heard.
  • Algorithmic Timelines and Recommendation Engines: The question in Gonzalez v. Google is whether platforms are liable for their recommendations. A win for Gonzalez would be a disaster for the way current platforms work.
  • Congressional Action: If Gonzalez wins the case, there should be no liability for posting a link and infrastructure companies should be given immunity to be content neutral.
  • The First Amendment and U.S. Speech Controls: Much of the discussion around moderation of content forgets that the First Amendment explicitly denies Congress any role in determining what is moderated and what is not.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants

Permission-Slip Culture Is Hurting America [Jerusalem Demsas, The Atlantic]

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  • Occupational licensing rules are pervasive and often arbitrary. It takes different amounts of money and time to become certified in different states for the same profession, and the benefits of these rules are unsubstantiated. This has a direct cost for workers, in terms of both fees and foregone wages, and an indirect cost for consumers, in the form of higher prices and reduced mobility.
  • Trade associations play a key role in implementing and maintaining these rules. Professional associations can shape requirements around benefits for their members rather than the public interest, and they have an incentive to maintain high barriers to entry in order to reduce competition and raise wages for their members.
  • Licensing rules are often ineffective in achieving their stated goals. Research shows that licensing rules don’t necessarily increase quality or public health and safety, and that they may reduce employment and exacerbate labor shortages in certain industries.
  • Reforming occupational licensing is a start, but it is not enough. Rethinking occupational licensing is part of the larger project of building effective government and ensuring protection against health and safety risks. This requires more than deregulation, such as clear regulations and effective enforcement.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Jerusalem Demsas’s original post Permission-Slip Culture Is Hurting America

February 23, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

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  • At Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service today, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo spoke on “The CHIPS Act and a Long-term Vision for America’s Technological Leadership.” She outlined what she sees as a historic opportunity to solidify the nation’s global leadership in technology and innovation and at the same time rebuild the country’s manufacturing sector and protect national security.
  • The CHIPS and Science Act was passed in August 2022 by a bipartisan vote, directing more than $52 billion into research and manufacturing of semiconductor chips as well as additional scientific research.
  • Raimondo framed the CHIPS and Science Act as an “incredible opportunity” to enable the U.S. to lead the world in technology, “securing our economic and national security future for the coming decades.”
  • The Biden administration is making a major investment in semiconductor technology, with the goal of reestablishing manufacturing in the U.S. to spark innovation and protect national security, while also creating new well-paying jobs.
  • Part of the impetus for the bipartisan drive to jump-start the semiconductor industry is lawmakers’ determination to counter the rise of China. Raimondo will travel to India next month to talk about closer economic ties between the U.S. and India, including collaboration in chip manufacturing.
  • The Biden administration’s vision of a hopeful future and a realistic means to get there is a striking contrast to the vision of today’s Republicans, who look backward resolutely and angrily to an imagined past. Polls and special election results suggest that voters like the Democrats’ vision.
  • The Anti-Defamation League released a report showing that all the extremist killings in 2022 were committed by right-wing adherents, with 21 of 25 murders linked to white supremacists.
  • A PRRI report showed that 64% of Americans say that abortion should be legal in most or all cases.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 23, 2023

Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

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  • For Creators:
    • Go to Manifold’s impact market site, Manifund, who have kindly agreed to handle the technology side of this.
    • Explain your project and how much funding you’re asking for ($20,000 or less, and preferably $5,000 or less).
    • Choose to keep your shares or sell them to investors. Selling may have tax implications.
    • Talk to potential investors and answer their questions.
    • Do as much of the project as you can before September 1 (our oracular funding will only consider the portion completed before that date).
  • For Us:
    • On September 1, we’ll look at all of the projects that got funded and try to value all of them.
    • We’ll try to buy impact certificates of the projects they value most ($20,000 cap, or 3x total invested).
    • We reserve the right to not buy impact certificates up to our full commitment if we think people are munchkinning the rules.
  • For Accredited Investors:
    • Register on Manifund as an accredited investor (net worth > $1 million, or have made $200,000+ per year for the past two years).
    • Bid on shares of any project you like.
    • IPOs close on March 8th, but you can keep buying and selling impact certificates among one another up to (and during, and after) the September 1 deadline.
    • If this project doesn’t work for some unexpected reason, we’ll refund up to $20,000.
  • For Other People Who Might Be Interested In Funding Forecasting:
    • Let me know at scott@slatestarcodex.com to add to our $20,000 commitment.
    • Compete with us to buy impact certificates, either before, on, or after September 1.
  • FAQ:
    • See the FAQ answers below.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Announcing Forecasting Impact Mini-Grants

New cracks emerge in Elon Musk’s Twitter [Casey Newton, Platformer]

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  • Governing
    • The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Twitter v. Taamneh, and appears unlikely to hand down a sweeping ruling about liability for terrorist content on social media.
    • The US Copyright Office said AI-generated images that were created using Midjourney should not have been granted copyright protection.
    • The Department of Justice is inching toward a lawsuit challenging Google’s dominant position in the market for digital maps and location information.
    • The FTC won’t challenge Amazon’s $3.49 billion acquisition of One Medical parent company 1Life Healthcare, and the deal will close later this week.
    • Federal officials are charging FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried with bank fraud and operating an unlicensed money transmitter in addition to the eight counts he already faced.
    • The US Supreme Court declined to hear a bid from Wikipedia to resurrect its lawsuit against the National Security Agency challenging mass online surveillance.
    • For all his talk about transparency, Elon Musk hasn’t published a Twitter transparency report detailing government content removal demands.
    • The European Commission banned TikTok on government employee devices.
    • A shadowy cybersecurity company called S2T Unlocking Cyberspace is marketing its services, which include accessing someone’s phone and turning on their camera without their knowledge, for use against journalists and activists.
    • Chinese regulators told major Chinese tech companies they can’t offer ChatGPT services to the public.
  • Industry
    • Microsoft rolled out new safety measures for Bing that ends chats if prompted to talk about “feelings” or “Sydney.”
    • Microsoft just expanded access to the new Bing on Android, iOS, Edge mobile, and Skype.
    • Microsoft has been secretly testing its Bing chatbot “Sydney” for years.
    • Microsoft Edge is running an aggressive ad on the Chrome download page to dissuade people from switching.
    • TikTok stars are accusing Carter Agency, a talent agency for TikTok creators, of withholding money and concealing the rates of brand deals.
    • Elon Musk laid off dozens of Twitter employees across sales and engineering last week, after telling people repeatedly layoffs were done.
    • Russian propagandists are using Twitter’s new paid verification system to appear more prominently on the platform.
    • Meta is planning more layoffs and will push some leaders into lower-level roles to flatten the layers of management.
    • WhatsApp appears to be working on a “private newsletter tool.”
    • Meta, the personalized news reader built by Instagram’s co-founders, is officially open to the public.
    • Google is asking some employees to share desks and alternate days in the office, citing “real estate efficiency.”
    • YouTube Music released a new feature to allow users to create custom radio stations with up to 30 artists.
    • YouTube is rolling out access to multi-language audio tracks to more creators, allowing them to add dubbing to videos.
    • Spotify announced a new AI feature called “DJ” that will deliver a curated selection of music alongside AI-powered commentary using a “stunningly realistic voice.”
    • Social media is a major cause of depression and anxiety in teen girls, according to an analysis of major studies.
    • Ben Rubin, the founder of Meerkat and Houseparty, launched a new project called Towns — a protocol and decentralized chat app designed to facilitate self-owned, self-governed online communities.

Published February 24, 2023
Visit Platformer to read Casey Newton’s original post New cracks emerge in Elon Musk’s Twitter

Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War: Operational Updates [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Most important factor: Weather continues to be warm in Kiev, not cold enough to freeze the ground.
  • Ukraine’s challenge: Ukraine has fewer people than Russia and must inflict high casualty ratios to be victorious.
  • Russia’s perspective: This war is a battle for Russia’s survival, and they will not stop.
  • Ukrainian strategy: The only way for Ukraine to emerge victorious is to kill so many Russian soldiers that the Russian front collapses.
  • Russian tactics: Wagner group has been using convicts in human wave tactics, throwing wave after wave of humans at Ukraine until weather changes or logistics shifts.
  • Estimations: Minimum deaths in the war so far in the Russian side is 120,000 and estimates for Russian deaths in the battle specifically is somewhere between 10 and 40,000.
  • Upcoming months: Russians will move more troops into the front and with the second mobilization underway, they will be badly led, equipped, supplied, and trained.
  • Ukrainian strategy: Ukraine needs to free up the conflict into a war of movement, allowing tanks and artillery to do an offensive where Russians can’t resist or maneuver.

Published February 23, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Peter Zeihan – The Ukraine War: Operational Updates

Why This Democratic Strategist Walked Away [Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic]

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  • Simon Rosenberg became an overnight sensation by challenging the predictions of Democratic doom and highlighting evidence of a different narrative in interviews, blog posts, and tweet streams.
  • Clintonism was the central project of the New Democrats, which focused on making the Democratic Party competitive at the presidential level again and resulting in 7 of 8 presidential elections won by the Democratic Party.
  • Donald Trump’s rise has been a dark period in our history with the emergence of “Greater MAGA” which is rooted in a narrative of the white tribe rallying around itself and a sense of grievance, loss, and decline.
  • In the 2022 election, there were two elections – one inside and one outside of the battlegrounds. Democrats were able to control the information environment and push turnout up through the roof, but outside the battlegrounds, the Republicans were still louder than the Democrats.
  • To win 55% of the vote nationally, Democrats must become more competitive in the daily political discourse, build more media institutions, and become information warriors daily.
  • The goal should be to expand, not to reposition when it comes to criticism of the Democratic Party.
  • The Democratic Party has been highly successful since the late 1980’s. This success is reflected in multiple areas and is something to be proud of.
  • The goal should be to expand, not to reposition. This means looking to young voters, Latinos, Never-MAGA or -Trumpers, and young women, post-*Dobbs*.
  • The No. 1 job is to increase registration, communications, targeting, and to make young people the center of politics. This will be key for the Democratic Party to be successful in the next two years.
  • The right-wing propaganda machines have bullied public opinion. This was the case in the lead up to the 2020 election, and there should be more introspection on why the general wisdom was so off.
  • For the Democrats to win in 2024, the economy needs to be good and they need to be successful in Ukraine, while the Republicans need to present themselves differently than MAGA.

Published February 23, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Ronald Brownstein’s original post Why This Democratic Strategist Walked Away

Social Media is a Major Cause of the Mental Illness Epidemic in Teen Girls. Here’s the Evidence. [Jon Haidt, After Babel]

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  • Most teen girls (57%) now experience persistent sadness or hopelessness, and 30% have seriously considered suicide – the CDC’s bi-annual Youth Risk Behavior Survey showed a substantial increase in these mental health issues since 2011.
  • COVID restrictions added little to the overall trends – teens were already socially distanced by 2019.
  • Social media is a potential cause – although evidence has been limited and mostly correlational.
  • The debate has shifted since 2019 – new research has indicated that social media is a substantial cause, not just a tiny correlate, of depression, anxiety, self-harm, and suicide.
  • Social media has network effects – which can create a cohort effect and a collective action problem.
  • The empirical debate has focused on the size of the dose-response effect – but much of the action is in the emergent network effects.
  • The Coddling of the American Mind (2018) mentioned the possible role of social media in Gen Z’s mental health issues, but concluded that more research was needed.
  • Orben & Przybylski’s study (2019) found that the average regression coefficient (using social media use to predict positive mental health) was negative but tiny, indicating a level of harmfulness so close to zero that it was roughly the same size as they found for the association of mental health with “eating potatoes” or “wearing eyeglasses.”
  • The Social Media and Mental Health Collaborative Review Doc (2019) compiled relevant studies and found that nearly all of the published studies fell into one of three categories: correlational, longitudinal, or experimental.
  • Thousands of adolescents reported how much time they spend on social media, or digital media more generally, and then reported something about their mental health.
  • The great majority of studies find a positive correlation between time on social media and mental health problems, especially mood disorders (depression and anxiety).
  • The relationships are tighter for girls; with correlation coefficients of roughly r = .20.
  • Amy Orben’s narrative review of many other reviews of the academic literature concluded that “The associations between social media use and well-being therefore range from about r = − 0.15 to r = − 0.10.”
  • Jeff Hancock and his team posted a meta-analysis in 2022, with data that went up through 2018, reporting very low associations (near zero) of social media use with some mental health outcomes, but with associations between r = .10 and r = .15 for depression and anxiety.
  • Longitudinal studies found evidence indicating causation in 25 of 40 studies (62.5%), but only 1 of the 7 studies that used a week or less found an effect. 33 studies used a month or more (20 were annual) and of these, 24 found a significant effect.
  • True experiments found evidence of a causal effect in 12 of 18 studies (67%), with college students or young adults randomly assigned to reduce their social media use for a while and then measured self-reported mental health outcomes, compared to the control group.

Conclusion: Social Media Is a Major Cause of Mental Illness in Girls, Not Just a Tiny Correlate

  • 10 experiments found evidence that social media is harmful (80%) and two that did not.
  • 6 quasi-experiments looking at real-world outcomes in real-world settings when the arrival of Facebook or high-speed internet created large and sudden emergent network effects, all six found that when social life moves rapidly online, mental health declines, especially for girls.
  • Social Media is a Major Cause of the Mental Illness Epidemic in Teen Girls.

Published February 22, 2023
Visit After Babel to read Jon Haidt’s original post Social Media is a Major Cause of the Mental Illness Epidemic in Teen Girls. Here’s the Evidence.

‘We Don’t Know What We Are Breathing’: A Report from East Palestine [Salena Zito, The Free Press]

  • Barbara Kugler and her husband were jolted off the couch by the sound of a train screeching to a halt, followed by a large explosion, on February 3.
  • The train carried chemicals that posed an immediate threat, including the flammable gas vinyl chloride, which can cause headaches, dizziness, and cancer.
  • Nearly 2,000 residents were evacuated, and a controlled burn was set off by Norfolk Southern officials.
  • Fish in nearby creeks have died, and locals are seeking their own independent tests of the air and water.
  • The Ohio Environmental Protection Agency has declared the water in 50 private wells and the air quality in over 500 homes free from deadly contaminants.
  • Ohio Governor Mike DeWine has reassured the public that the water is safe to drink and air is safe to breathe, but the locals don’t trust the authorities.
  • Former President Donald Trump and former Representative for Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard have visited the town, bearing food and water supplies.
  • It took until February 16 for the first top Biden official, EPA administrator Michael Regan, to be on the scene.
  • The Biden administration has refused to declare East Palestine a disaster area and grant FEMA aid.
  • Former President Donald Trump and former Representative for Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard have visited the town, bearing food and water supplies.
  • East Palestine residents are seeking better answers, more federal support, and a proper cleanup that eradicates all chemicals from the ground and the streams, guaranteeing their safety.
  • People are worried about the long-term effects on their health, and feel like their home values have been lost.

Published February 23, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Salena Zito’s original post ‘We Don’t Know What We Are Breathing’: A Report from East Palestine

Labor Positions [Emily Oster, ParentData]

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  • Stages of labor: Labor has three stages: first, when the cervix dilates to 10 centimeters; second, the pushing stage; and third, the delivery of the placenta.
  • First stage of labor: During the first stage of labor, the key question is whether you will labor in bed or be able to walk around. Evidence suggests that labor is shorter and outcomes are improved when women are able to be upright and walking around.
  • Second stage of labor: In the second stage, the question is about position. Pushing upright, in a squatting position or similar, may result in a slightly shorter labor, but the data is not very consistent. There is no clear evidence of a difference in perineal tearing.
  • Water birth: There is no compelling evidence to suggest that water birth is either more painful or less painful. Safety is generally assured, but infection is possible in rare cases.
  • Concluding thoughts: It is important to consider personal preference and hospital constraints alongside the data when making decisions about labor position.

Published February 23, 2023
Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post Labor Positions

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