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Can India industrialize? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

C

• India is the most important developing country in the world due to its sheer size and low income levels.
• India’s exports are mostly composed of low-value manufactured goods and raw materials/agricultural products.
• India’s services exports are 60% as large as its exports of goods.
• India needs to focus on labor-intensive manufacturing to move people out of agriculture and urbanize faster.
• The Modi government has made big strides in improving infrastructure, but education and literacy rates remain low.
• India has been trying to promote manufacturing through its “Make in India” initiative, but it has failed to gain much traction, possibly due to the Indian regulatory environment and business culture..
• The failure may be due to the focus on making things for the domestic market, which does not force companies to increase their productivity or develop new products.
• India has been trying to attract foreign direct investment through special economic zones (SEZs), but they have been mostly focused on service exports.
• Electronics hardware, semiconductors, and telecom equipment are the manufacturing sectors India should be focusing on, as they are perfect for globally integrated supply chains and offer plenty of opportunity for technological upgrading.
• India should also consider another round of land reform, as it can help small farmers own their own plots, increase agricultural output, and force landlords to become more entrepreneurial.
• Overall, India has the potential to become a major player in the global economy, and the reforms of the 1980s and 1990s have given Indians a taste of what their country can achieve.
• The article emphasizes the need for experimentation and learning from other countries in order to achieve economic development, with the goal of allowing the world’s largest country to take its rightful place among the industrialized nations.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Can India industrialize?

Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

C

• China’s real estate sector is facing a crisis, with developers defaulting on bonds and a large backlog of troubled projects.
• The construction boom has been the main driver of China’s unbalanced, investment-heavy, consumption-poor growth.
• In the late 1990s, real estate accounted for 8% of GDP, but by 2021 it had risen to 25%.
• In a single generation, China has built enough homes to house a billion people.
• The IMF report shows the Chinese authorities in a relatively calm mood, but Western observers are skeptical.
• Beijing has shifted from a restrictive and deflationary course to one of re-stimulating the real estate economy.
• A key challenge to restoring confidence is the large backlog of partially built housing.
• To stabilize the Chinese real estate market, a commitment of 5% of GDP is needed.
• If Beijing succeeds in managing the fallout, it would be an example of macro-prudential economic management on a world historic scale.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought [Joseph Politano, Apricitas Economics]

T

• US added more than half a million jobs in January, exceeding consensus forecasts and notching the largest monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls since July.
• Revisions to growth over the last year represent the largest sign of strength in the labor market.
• Employment has now more than fully recovered in all major industry groups except Leisure & Hospitality and Government.
• Wage growth continues to decelerate, with private industry wages growing 5.1% over the year ending in Q4 and average hourly earnings for private-sector workers growing 4.4% over the year ending in January 2023.
• Unemployment rate has sunk to its lowest level since 1969 and prime-age employment rates remain just 0.4% below pre-pandemic peaks.
• Sectors that had demand pulled forward during the early pandemic—tech, transportation, warehousing, homebuilding, and manufacturing—are holding up better than previously thought.
• The share of working-age adults with a job is still slightly below the 80.6% notched just before COVID, significantly below the 81.9% achieved in the late 1990s.
• Comprehensive data on wages and benefits from the Employment Cost Index shows wage growth decelerating significantly over the last two quarters.
• Chair Powell and the FOMC acknowledged the start of disinflationary process at their meeting this week, stressing that they don’t believe they have done enough to contain inflation yet.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Apricitas Economics to read Joseph Politano’s original post The US Labor Market Was Stronger Than We Thought

You are now living through Cold War 2 [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

Y

• The Spy Balloon of 2023 is a sign that Cold War 2 is already here, and tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating.
• Calls for a return to the engagement strategy of the 1980s-2010s are coming from China and the U.S., but they are unlikely to be successful.
• The events of 2019-22, including the Hong Kong protests and China’s repression of the Uyghurs, will not be forgotten.
• China’s recent overtures have not been matched by more peaceful actions on the ground, and U.S. intelligence officials allege that China is preparing for action against Taiwan.
• China’s neighbors are forming balancing coalitions and seeking increased military cooperation with the U.S.
• The trend may be away from Chimerica, but there will still be plenty of trade between the two countries unless and until a major war breaks out.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post You are now living through Cold War 2

Chartbook #193 Indian nation-building, Modi and the Adani crisis

C

• The Adani business empire has been rocked by global developments in the last week, including continuing losses on the market, the cancelation of the share sale, and moves by foreign investors to clarify their exposure to Adani.
• Mihir Sharma argues that Adani is a “national champion” and that the real fear is that they cannot do what they say they will.
• Arvind Subramanian and Ashoka Mody provide critical perspectives on India’s growth outlook.
• India’s digital infrastructure, known as the “India Stack”, has enabled the incorporation of hundreds of millions of people into the governmental machinery of the Indian state and a national market.
• India’s energy system has been heavily dependent on coal, but PM Modi has committed India to decarbonization by 2070.
• Both the Ambani and Adani groups have seized on the new agenda, promising to make India a hydrogen champion and “indigenising the entire supply chain”.
• Nation-building is the key boast of the Adani group, and it is that model that is at stake in this crisis.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #193 Indian nation-building, Modi and the Adani crisis

TikTok’s CoreCore and the Federal Reserve [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

T

• The article discusses the current balancing act of the Federal Reserve and the 6 things they must pay attention to.
• It also looks at the trend of corecore on TikTok, which is a reflection of the Internet on the Internet and a message against capitalism and income inequality.
• The Fed is charged with creating aspects of financial nihilism right now, and is looking at wages, labor market, and economic growth to slow inflation.
• Data points show a slowdown in manufacturing, labor market, and wages, but no recessionary warning signals.
• The Fed wants the market to take it seriously, but markets often lose the plot.
• The article concludes that people are the economy, and the Fed is paying attention to the right things.

Published February 2, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post TikTok’s CoreCore and the Federal Reserve

Friend-shoring vs. “Buy American” [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

F

• The Biden administration has kept tariffs on China and is considering outbound investment restrictions, but is also emphasizing the idea of “friend-shoring”—moving supply chains out of China and into friendly countries.
• The U.S. should incentivize high-tech manufacturing in the U.S., but it needs to be done with robots, not labor-intensive manufacturing.
• The U.S. needs to build a large coalition of allies and friends to balance China, and should err on the side of deference to those allies.
• The U.S. should offer Japan and South Korea full access to the U.S. market, including tax credits, to negate China’s advantage.
• The U.S. should not try to force small allies and friends to appreciate their currency against the dollar, as this would be stingy and selfish.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Friend-shoring vs. “Buy American”

Professionalize the police [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

P

• Tyre Nichols was fatally beaten by Memphis police, sparking protests across the country and raising the question of what to do about police brutality.
• The “defund the police” movement was a failure, and even Black Americans wanted more spending on policing in their neighborhoods.
• Compared to other developed countries, U.S. police have far fewer hours of training and are more likely to use deadly force.
• Increasing the required hours of police training in America by a factor of 4 or 5 is an obvious policy to try, but some activists are resistant to the idea.
• Professionalizing the police should go beyond training to include education, such as requiring a college degree, which would create positive selection effects and lead to healthier lifestyles.

Published January 29, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Professionalize the police

Can The Housing Market Stabilize? [Joseph Politano, Apricitas Economics]

C

• The US housing market is in a nearly unprecedented place due to rising interest rates and the pandemic.
• Mortgage rates have started to retreat, but the housing market is still trying to adjust to higher rates.
• Real private residential fixed investment has fallen 20% throughout the year and now sits well below pre-pandemic levels.
• The number of units under construction is still near all-time highs, protecting employment in the housing sector.
• Home prices are still elevated, but the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index just took a dip for the first time in years.
• The homebuying market remains anything but stable, with new home sales dipping below the pre-pandemic average.
• The housing market feels more like a passenger than a driver, with movements in the labor market dominating the housing market.

Published January 28, 2023
Visit Apricitas Economics to read Joseph Politano’s original post Can The Housing Market Stabilize?

Vertical communities [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

V

• The paper “Public Perceptions of Local Influence” by Joshua Hochberg and Eitan Hersh found that most people can no longer name individuals who they think are influential in their community.
• This could be due to big companies muscling out small businesses, or it could be a sign of Americans becoming disengaged from their local communities.
• The idea of “community” has changed from being based on physical proximity to being based on identities, interests, and values.
• The internet has enabled the formation of vertical communities, which are groups of people united by identities, interests, and values rather than by physical proximity.
• Horizontal communities still exist, but they are often stifling and repressive.
• Vertical communities are thriving online, but they are not “network states” and are subordinate to horizontal communities.
• Public goods are still provided by horizontal organizations, but social interaction happens in the cloud.
• This dichotomy presents an enormous challenge to our institutions, as public goods are easier to provide when people have homogeneous preferences.
• Vertical communities could exacerbate divisions and make it difficult to provide public goods.

Published January 27, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Vertical communities

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