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Crowds Are Wise (And One’s A Crowd) [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

C

• The “wisdom of crowds” hypothesis claims that the average of many guesses is better than a single guess.
• Nick Bostrom speculates that in the far future, a multigalactic supercivilization might be able to support 10^46 simulated humans per century. If all of them took the survey, the error would be within 12 km.
• Van Dolder and Van Den Assem did a much bigger wisdom-of-inner-crowds experiment, which found that outer crowds are much more effective than inner crowds.
• An inner crowd of size infinity performs about as well as an outer crowd of size two.
• 90% of outer crowd error can be removed by going from one to ten people; going from ten to infinity people only removes an additional 10%.
• Last month, we found that wisdom of crowds works in forecasting: the aggregate of 500 forecasters scored better than 84% of individuals; the aggregate of superforecasters scored better than individual superforecasters.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Crowds Are Wise (And One’s A Crowd)

Bad Bunny Overthrows the Grammys [Xochitl Gonzalez, The Atlantic]

B

• Bad Bunny is the official patron saint of Latinidad, making history as the first Spanish-language artist ever nominated for Album of the Year at the Grammys.
• His commercial success forced an acknowledgment that you cannot have American pop culture without Latinos.
• Bad Bunny bucks the misogynistic and homophobic history of reggaeton, wearing skirts, painting his nails, and making out with backup dancers both male and female.
• His performance at the Grammys opened with a bomba beat, featuring female dancers in traditional skirts and papier-mâché heads of Puerto Rican icons and independence advocates.
• The medley shifted to “Después de la Playa”, a merengue beat inspired by the rhythm of enslaved people cutting cane while their legs were chained together.
• Bad Bunny’s lyrics, performances, and music videos are part of a tradition of rebellion, such as his collaboration with iLe and Residente in response to the corruption scandal of then-Governor Ricardo Rosselló.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Xochitl Gonzalez’s original post Bad Bunny Overthrows the Grammys

The Two Stalingrads [Elliot Ackerman, The Atlantic]

T

• The article discusses the legacy of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Second World War, and how it is shared by both Russia and Ukraine.
• It recounts the story of three Ukrainian veterans of the Soviet war in Afghanistan who presented the author with a lapel pin from the Union of Veterans of Afghanistan.
• It references the work of Vasily Grossman, a Ukrainian Soviet Jew, and his 1942 book, *The People Immortal*, which chronicles the Red Army’s retreat through Ukraine in the months after the German invasion on June 22, 1941.
• It compares the Nazi military machine to the Russian-invasion force in Ukraine, and discusses the societal sterility associated with fascism in Russia today.
• It draws parallels between the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Grossman, both of whom understand the importance of narrative in war.
• It concludes by suggesting that the title of Grossman’s book, *The People Immortal*, is a reference to the people of Ukraine and Russia, whose blood has been mixed together in life and death.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Elliot Ackerman’s original post The Two Stalingrads

It’s So Sad When Old People Romanticize Their Heydays, Also the 90s Were Objectively the Best Time to Be Alive [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

I

• The 90s were a time of optimism and immediacy in experience, with a lack of self-consciousness and a sense of possibility for the new millennium.
• People had places to do things, like record stores, and there was a sense of pretension and principles that has since been replaced by cultural consumerism.
• Gen X were the young people of the 90s, and the turn of the millennium was seen as both a new beginning and potentially the end.
• The 90s had a counterculture, with people standing for something else, and a species of young feminist who was not quite a riot grrrl.
• People had to wait for things, and there was mystery and anticipation, which has been replaced by instant access to all of the most depraved material ever made.
• The youth of today are denied the ability to see things as new, and are experiencing an adolescence without adolescence.
• The article reflects on the experience of being a teenager in the 90s, when the internet was still a novelty and cellphones were not yet ubiquitous.
• Socializing was done in person, often in the school parking lot or at parties at houses on the edge of town.
• People would talk on the phone for hours, and collect calls were used to ask for rides home.
• The author reflects on the fashion, music, and culture of the time, and how it was worse than today in some ways, but also better in others.
• They recall going to shows, smoking weed, and drinking coffee, and how they would drop by each other’s places.
• The author also shares a fantasy version of the 90s, where they and a friend move to Seattle and live in a ratty old house with a bunch of other layabouts.
• They recall going to shows, doing drugs, and driving to Mount Ranier, and how they would listen to NPR for news.
• The article ends with a description of closing the coffee shop at dusk, listening to Mazzy Star, and driving to a house party.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post It’s So Sad When Old People Romanticize Their Heydays, Also the 90s Were Objectively the Best Time to Be Alive

Commemorate history, don’t preserve old buildings [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

C

• Washington D.C. has a grim land use situation near the Cleveland Park Metro station, where a low-rise strip mall is designated for historic preservation.
• This strip mall is an inappropriate use of the land given present-day economics and the existence of the metro station.
• In Chicago, a plaque commemorates the place where Barack and Michelle Obama shared their first kiss after their first date.
• Cities should invest more in telling their stories, such as installing signs in parks to explain who the park is named after and why.
• Mandating that old buildings stay up rather than be replaced as economics shift is very costly.
• It can be inconvenient not to have a level entry to your house, and regulations have benefits as well as costs.
• The city of D.C. has created a series of “neighborhood heritage trail” walking tours that bring you to various informational signs about the history of the neighborhood.
• The author suggests investing in more signage to tell the story of every park and school in every neighborhood of the city.
• The author also suggests redeveloping old buildings to create more subsidized housing units.

Published February 6, 2023
Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post Commemorate history, don’t preserve old buildings

The Institutional Arsonist Turns on His Own Party [Peter Wehner, The Atlantic]

T

• Donald Trump may lose the GOP presidential primary and, out of spite, wreck Republican prospects in 2024.
• A *Bulwark* poll found that a large majority of Republicans are ready to move on from Trump, but more than a quarter of likely Republican voters are ready to follow Trump to a third-party bid.
• Trump has flirted with third-party runs before, including in 2000, and he refused to rule out a third-party run in 2015.
• Trump has no attachment to the Republican Party or, as best as one can tell, to anything or anyone else.
• Trump could ensure that Republican presidential and congressional candidates lose simply by criticizing them during the campaign, accusing the Republican Party of disloyalty, and signaling to his supporters that they should sit out the election.
• House Republicans have elevated and showcased Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has embraced QAnon conspiracy theories, insisted that 9/11 was an inside job, and voiced support for executing prominent Democrats.
• Republicans will abandon Trump only when he’s deemed to be a surefire political loser.
• Donald Trump delights in watching the world burn.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Peter Wehner’s original post The Institutional Arsonist Turns on His Own Party

The Chinese Spy Balloon Over My House [Walter Kirn, The Free Press]

T

• Montanans spotted a Chinese spy balloon hovering above the state’s missile silos and bases, prompting a minor national panic.
• The federal government was already aware of the balloon, but had kept it on the “down-low” in order to not disrupt a meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and high Chinese officials.
• The incident sparked stereotypes about Montanans being quick to anger and hostile to outsiders.
• A few weeks prior, a New York Times article had portrayed Montana as a quasi-fascist state, which the author of the article claims is exaggerated.
• The author reflects on the state’s lack of power and influence, and how Montanans are often portrayed in a negative light by the media.
• Despite this, the author is proud of Montanans for spotting the balloon and raising an alarm.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Walter Kirn’s original post The Chinese Spy Balloon Over My House

American Christianity Is Due for a Revival [Timothy Keller, The Atlantic]

A

• In the late 1980s, the author noticed many churches in New York City being repurposed or torn down due to dwindling membership and cultural attitudes toward Christianity.
• The Pew Research Center projected that the percentage of Christians in the U.S. could plunge to less than half the population by 2070.
• Sociologists such as Émile Durkheim and Jonathan Haidt have argued that religion contributes to society in ways that cannot be readily supplied by other sources.
• Robert Bellah showed that American individualism is headed toward social fragmentation, economic inequality, and family breakdown without the counterbalance of religion.
• Churches provide community and support to people in their congregations and serve neighbors who do not attend church.
• The Church can experience a revival if it learns how to speak compellingly to non-Christian people, unites justice and righteousness, and embraces the global and multiethnic character of Christianity.
• The Church in the U.S. can grow again if it strikes a dynamic balance between innovation and conservation.
• Modern secularism holds that people are only physical entities without souls, but most people feel that life is greater than what can be accounted for by naturalistic explanations.
• Christianity offers grace and covenant, which is based on unconditional love and sacrificial service.
• The Church must escape from political captivity, engage in extraordinary prayer, and distinguish the gospel from moralism.
• Eric Liddell, the former Olympic star and missionary to China, was an example of how the gospel of sheer grace through Christ can produce love.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Timothy Keller’s original post American Christianity Is Due for a Revival

Elan Lee, Co-Creator of Exploding Kittens [Tim Ferriss]

E

• Elan Lee is a game designer, Primetime Emmy, Peabody Award, and IndieCade Trailblazer Award winner.
• He believes the most important part of a game is the core gameplay loop and that games are tools for people to have fun with each other.
• He and his team developed Poetry for Neanderthals, which uses single syllable words to translate sentences.
• They used the Kitty Test Pilots program to test prototypes and provide feedback.
• Exploding Kittens was described as Russian roulette with a deck of cards.
• The Kickstarter campaign raised almost $9 million.
• Elan believes in creating a core gameplay loop and building the surrounding components to emphasize it.
• He recommends playing Poetry for Neanderthals, SET, and Settlers of Catan.
• Exploding Kittens started out as a 100% direct-to-consumer business, but now retail accounts for 60%.
• Elan met his mentor, Jordan Weisman, at Microsoft and they started a clothing company.
• Elan warns against stretch goals that involve manufacturing and fulfillment.
• Exploding Kittens was a huge success on Kickstarter and Amazon.
• Elan and his team have put systems in place to remain in control of the company.
• Elan is passionate about creating tools to bring joy to people’s lives and partnering with people who have a genuine love for their audience.
• Tim Ferriss believes it is important to be aware of the seduction of the algorithm.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit The Tim Ferriss Show to find the original interview Elan Lee, Co-Creator of Exploding Kittens

The French Are in a Panic Over “le Wokisme” [Thomas Chatterton Williams, The Atlantic]

T

• The Tocqueville Conversations was a two-day “taboo-free discussion” among public intellectuals about the crisis of Western democracies, with a focus on the American social-justice ideology known as “wokeness.”
• Rokhaya Diallo, a French West African journalist, social-justice activist, and media personality, was one of the few nonwhite speakers and the sole practicing Muslim.
• The French have long prided themselves on having a system of government that doesn’t recognize racial or ethnic designations, but recently American-style identity politics has piqued the interest of a new and more diverse generation.
• During the conference, Diallo argued that minority experiences may be more visible now thanks to social media, which poses a challenge to traditional “elite” knowledge production.
• Diallo was isolated from the rest of the panel and hissed at by the audience, and the moderator refused to concede even the theoretical possibility that any knowledge can be derived from identity.
• The incident caused the author to recalibrate some of his assumptions and appreciate more keenly just how easily anti-wokeness can succumb to a dogmatism as rigid as the one it seeks to oppose.
• In France, the controversy over “le wokisme” is almost always a proxy for a deeper concern about Islam and terror on the European continent, and those seen as permissive of wokeness are presumed to be indulging “islamo-gauchisme.”
• France’s vehement reaction to wokeism is shaped by its complex relationship with America and its own history of homegrown jihad and concerns about domineering Yankee influence.
• The New York Times’ headline following the beheading of Samuel Paty was seen as exonerating his assassin, which was painful for many French people of all ethnicities and religious affiliations.
• Macron and Blanquer, the Minister of National Education, have been consistent and powerful opponents of woke ideology, believing that treating women and minority groups as different and special is antithetical to equality.
• Blanquer’s rigid devotion to the principle of universalism entails a certain blindness to often valid minority concerns.
• Activists and those listening to them have looked to America for a vocabulary to express what is happening in their own country, whether or not that vocabulary fully makes sense.
• In 2010, the U.S. State Department invited French politicians and activists to a leadership program to help them strengthen the voice and representation of ethnic groups that have been excluded from government.
• The French elections last spring showed that an identity-driven illiberalism long active on the right is gaining force on the left, with significant numbers of minority voters feeling ignored and misunderstood.
• The French mainstream is correct to note that wokeness is philosophically incoherent and dangerous, as it subordinates human psychology to sweeping platitudes and self-certain dictates.
• Cancel culture is real in the U.S. and has been toxic to debate and institutional decision making.
• Resistance to wokeism’s more ambitious designs has been widespread and ethnically diverse.
• Suppressing wokeism in France has not gone well either.
• The goal should be to achieve genuine universalism, rather than to eliminate difference.
• The challenge is to channel woke impulses responsibly, while refusing to succumb to the myopia of group identity.
• The French model of universal citizenship is superior in principle, but the American reflex to interpret social life through imperfect notions of identity can still perceive real experiences that otherwise get dismissed.
• The future belongs to the multiethnic society that finds a way to synthesize the French and American models.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Thomas Chatterton Williams’s original post The French Are in a Panic Over <em>le Wokisme</em>

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