โข The โwisdom of crowdsโ hypothesis claims that the average of many guesses is better than a single guess.
โข Nick Bostrom speculates that in the far future, a multigalactic supercivilization might be able to support 10^46 simulated humans per century. If all of them took the survey, the error would be within 12 km.
โข Van Dolder and Van Den Assem did a much bigger wisdom-of-inner-crowds experiment, which found that outer crowds are much more effective than inner crowds.
โข An inner crowd of size infinity performs about as well as an outer crowd of size two.
โข 90% of outer crowd error can be removed by going from one to ten people; going from ten to infinity people only removes an additional 10%.
โข Last month, we found that wisdom of crowds works in forecasting: the aggregate of 500 forecasters scored better than 84% of individuals; the aggregate of superforecasters scored better than individual superforecasters.
Published February 6, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Crowds Are Wise (And One’s A Crowd)