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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

There’s No Secret Option C [Emily Oster, ParentData]

T

• Facing difficult decisions can be hard because both options have significant downsides.
• Remind yourself that there is no secret option C and actively choose the option with the least downsides.
• Facing the decision head-on may help you find better options than the two you initially had.
• When faced with tough decisions, remind yourself that there is no secret option C.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post.

“Don’t Say Gay”: Florida schools purge library books with LGBTQ characters [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

&

• Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) signed the Parental Rights in Education Act in March 2022, which critics dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill.
• Despite DeSantis’ claims that the bill only prohibits “sexual instruction” directed at young students, several Florida schools have already removed books with LGBTQ characters from their libraries, citing the Parental Rights in Education Act.
• The Florida Department of Education is currently in the process of developing a training for school librarians regarding the selection of library materials, which encourages librarians to remove books with LGBTQ themes from elementary school libraries by conflating the standards for instructional materials and library books.
• A group of LGBTQ students and their parents have filed a lawsuit in federal court, alleging that the law violates the First and Fourteenth Amendments to the United States Constitution.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post.

American transit agencies should prioritize ridership over other goals [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

A

• The United States struggles to create cost-effective rail infrastructure and attract mass transit ridership due to a lack of clear mandates to prioritize ridership.
• Ridership vs. coverage tradeoffs are common in transit planning, but without a clear mandate to prioritize ridership, agencies don’t ask the right questions.
• Amtrak’s wish list map is an example of a plan that does not prioritize ridership.
• The Transit Cost Project has highlighted the sources of expense in projects like the Second Avenue Subway and the Green Line Extension.
• Ridership is a good proxy for other goals like environmental benefits, racial and socioeconomic equity, and economic development.
• Setting a clear and simple task of spending money on things that people will use is the best way to ensure cost-effectiveness and success.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post.

Hamline University And Cancel Culture [Ken White, The Popehat Report]

H

• Hamline University’s decision to not renew the contract of an art history lecturer who showed an image of the Prophet Muhammad in class is an example of “cancel culture” – a response that is disproportionate to the speech in question.
• Hamline’s communications about the incident, which downplayed free expression and academic freedom, were also an example of “cancel culture”.
• Hamline’s student newspaper, the Oracle, engaged in “cancel culture” by deleting a statement from the chair of the Department of Religion defending the lecturer.
• Actionable items to address this type of “cancel culture” include: not firing, disciplining, or non-renewing teachers based on violating sectarian religious rules unless the teachers and students know up front they’re under those rules; not condemning pedagogically appropriate and on-point teaching to soothe sectarian demands; and not issuing vague, ambiguous, and unworkable speech “standards”.
• Student newspapers at non-sectarian schools should not delete defenses of speech because some people think it’s offensive to disagree about whether the speech is offensive.
• The Hamline students’ response to a lecturer showing a picture of the Prophet Muhammad was disproportionate and censorial, and can be fairly called “cancel culture”.
• Demanding that the lecturer be fired, not renewed, or disciplined is wildly disproportionate and should not be condoned.
• Saying “as a Muslim I find visual depictions of the Prophet offensive and blasphemous” is not cancel culture.
• Throwing around the word “Islamophobia” is censorial, entitled, and ignorant, but not wildly disproportionate.
• The criticism of the lecturer is indecent, as the lecturer showed sensitivity and explained the pedagogical context.
• This incident is a huge culture war victory for the anti-progressive Right.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit The Popehat Report to read Ken White’s original post.

January 5, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

J

• After 11 ballots, the Republicans remain unable to elect a speaker and thus unable to organize the House, with the Democrats united behind Hakeem Jeffries and delivering 212 votes for him 11 times.
• Kevin McCarthy has allegedly agreed to the demand of the hard-right Freedom Caucus that a single person can force a vote to get rid of the speaker, and has offered them two spots on the House Rules Committee and control over appropriations bills.
• President Joe Biden is working to make sure people understand just how much the Democrats got done in the past two years, and is also stepping up to address the influx of migrants to the border with new measures.
• On Sunday, Biden will go to El Paso, Texas, to meet with local officials and community leaders, and on January 6 he will honor people who distinguished themselves by protecting the country during the 2020–2021 attempt to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
• Trump’s name has barely been mentioned during the fight over the House speakership, and he has gotten just one vote.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

The Fed is Hiking Up That Mountain [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

T

• The Fed is approaching economic switchbacks, which could make the overall endeavor of a soft landing easier, but could also make the climb more difficult if ignored.
• The Fed wants to slow down the labor market, but is cognizant of the potential for an unwarranted easing in financial conditions.
• Complacency is pervasive in the labor market, with workers not being respected and incentives leading to less disruption.
• The Fed is trying to bring the labor market back into balance, but there is a need for central bankers to not always rely solely on their econometric models and instead throw in some human nature common sense.
• Albert Camus said it best when he said “real generosity toward the future lies in giving all to the present.”

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

Demographics Part 4: The European Breakdown [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

D
  • Europe can be broken into four pieces: France and the Scandinavian countries, Germany and its surrounding countries, Spain and Portugal, and the Orthodox world (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia).
  • France and the Scandinavian countries were late to industrialization, but they have proven far better at adapting to it due to their geographic advantage of having more “elbow room” and their pronatalist policies.
  • The Germano-centric countries have been part of an earlier wave of industrialization before WWII and are heavily urbanized, but there hasn’t been room for children for decades, resulting in an inverted population pyramid.
  • Spain and Portugal were very late to industrialization, but their bulge is in their 40s instead of nearing their 60s, giving them at least another 20 years before running out of working age adults.
  • Central European countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic didn’t start to develop until the 1990s, and their bulge is in their 30s and 40s, giving them another 20-30 years.
  • The Orthodox world (Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia) is so fundamentally different in terms of population numbers that it requires separate treatment.

You can watch the full Demographics Part 4: The European Breakdown on YouTube – Published January , 2023

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The Reason There’s Been No Cure for Alzheimer’s [Joanne Silberner, The Free Press]

T

• In the mid-1990s, Alzheimer’s disease began eroding my father’s brain, and medicine had nothing to offer him or millions of other Americans.
• Recently, a drug called lecanemab has been heralded as a breakthrough, but it only slightly slows a patient’s inevitable decline for a few months.
• The amyloid hypothesis has held a vise-like grip on Alzheimer’s research for decades, despite the fact that drugs designed to address amyloid have shown virtually no beneficial effects on patients.
• The incentives of big academic medicine, big governmental medicine, and big pharma have contributed to the persistence of the amyloid theory, despite the lack of evidence.
• Scientists whose ideas fell outside the dogma have recounted how, for decades, believers in the dominant hypothesis suppressed research on alternative ideas.
• Journals have turned down research papers and grants have been rejected, leading some talented researchers to other fields.
• The FDA recently approved the drug aducanumab, which has been met with criticism due to its ineffectiveness and high cost.
• Biogen and Eisai are now pushing for the approval of lecanemab, which has been touted as a “gamechanger” for Alzheimer’s treatment.
• Clinical trials of lecanemab showed a 0.45 point improvement on an 18-point scale, and three patients died from brain swelling and bleeding as a result of the treatment.
• There is concern that the focus on amyloid-targeting drugs will divert resources away from other possible treatments, such as anti-herpes drugs, antibacterials, and “cocktails” of drugs.

Published January 4, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read the original post.

January 4, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

J

• The Republicans won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives in 2022, but have been unable to elect a speaker due to a group of 20 far-right Republicans backing their own choices.
• The chaos suggests that Republican leadership does not have the skills it needs to govern, and the roots of their current worldview lie in the Reagan Revolution of 1980.
• The Republican Party has been purged of traditional Republicans and replaced with ideological fellow travelers, and their policies have concentrated wealth upward and hollowed out the middle class.
• A new era is pushing the Reagan era aside, with Republicans recognizing that it is our democratic government and the rule of law that protects their investments, and that maintaining the government will take basic laws and the skills to negotiate and pass them.

Published January 4, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

EV’s Not-so-little Dirty Secret(s) [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

E
  • Electronic Vehicles (EVs) are not likely to be a significant part of our transport future for at least the next decade, due to their high energy consumption, high costs and limited power capabilities, compared to conventional vehicles.
  • The world has never been able to double the amount of resources needed in a 10-year period, which is what would be necessary to increase production of materials such as lithium, copper, zinc, chromium and molybdenum by a factor of 10.
  • The Russian and Chinese economies are in decline, meaning material production and processing capacity will be lost.
  • Tesla stock has dropped significantly due to Elon Musk’s erratic political views, the fact that Tesla is priced like a technology company when it is really an automotive company, and the global capital crunch.

You can watch the full EV’s Not-so-little Dirty Secret(s)by Peter Zeihan on YouTube – Published January 4, 2023

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