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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

One Thing: Getting Kids to Eat [Emily Oster, ParentData]

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  • The goal: to make dinner less unpleasant for parents with picky kids
  • Approach: set expectations that you can control and focus on what you can control, not what you can’t
  • Ideas: serve vegetables before the meal, hold fruit back, no pressuring kids to eat, involve kids in dinner prep
  • Final thoughts: setting the right expectations is great, but it can be hard to be gentle with ourselves when other people are criticizing our children

Click HERE for original. Published December 12, 2022

Techno-optimism for 2023 [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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  • Technological advances in the 2010s were often undervalued and dismissed, but 2020 has seen a surge of cutting-edge technology helping to sustain society and defeat the pandemic.
  • Generative AI applications, predictive AI, and protein folding have all seen major advances.
  • The solar revolution is going from theoretical to actual, with a huge surge of global investment and the IEA predicting that renewables will generate more electricity than either coal or oil five years from now.
  • Batteries are also seeing cost drops and promise to transform our physical world, while green hydrogen may help resolve the solar intermittency problem.
  • Biotech is seeing advances in mRNA vaccines, synthetic bio, stem cells, Crispr, and more, while launch costs are transforming the space industry and quantum computing is seeing steady advances.

Click HERE for original. Published December 11, 2022

Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise [Astral Codex Ten]

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  • The connections between the decline of the northeastern WASP aristocracy’s power, the emergence of meritocracy, and the hippie culture of the 60s are questionable and don’t stand up to historical scrutiny.
  • The displacement of the WASP aristocracy by a managerial upper-middle class predates the changes to university admissions that Brooks is discussing.
  • The idea of a clean break between WASP culture and bohemianism is inaccurate, as many young members of the WASP aristocracy adopted bohemian values.
  • The space race and nuclear weapons were more significant factors in the changing of the elite guard than university admissions.
  • The current ruling class is not resisting the movement to discriminate less against Asians, and the concept of ‘starving artists’ does not overlap with ‘Class X’.
  • Legacy admissions are roughly a third of Harvard students, which is fatal to the thesis of the book.
  • The meritocratic phase of the Ivy League schools lasted only a few years, from 1960 to around 1967, when full-tuition academic scholarships were eliminated.
  • This was a major blow to their selectivity, and by 1980, only the rich or the broke could afford Ivy League tuitions.
  • This has resulted in a situation where the ruling wealthy elites can shut out middle-class white and Asian males from wealth and power, and all but guarantee that those non-whites and females admitted to the Ivies will follow the party line.
  • The alternative hypothesis, that the Ivies suddenly became so good at picking smart people, is infeasible.
  • A hereditary aristocracy might have been good because it created arbitrary constraints on the number of elites, and provided a longer perspective than a pure meritocracy.
  • The nascent tech takeover of the elite was an attempt to combine the flaws of both systems, but it has done a better job combining the flaws than the positives.
  • An anecdote from a WASP party reveals that money was the primary topic of conversation, and that the wealthy were embarrassed about their sinecures.
  • Yale’s Jewish quota was eliminated in 1965, and the intellectual atmosphere of the campus changed immediately.
  • David Brooks’ 2000 book Bobos in Paradise popularized the term “Bobos” to describe the upper-middle class of the late 1990s, but the facts of the book have been called into question.
  • An alternative explanation for the current state of the US economy is that people have been inheriting money, leading to a sense of guilt and shame among beneficiaries.
  • The phenomenon of Bobos has been connected to Spiral Dynamics and Integral Theory, which suggest that the right and left poles of the political spectrum flip back and forth in a long-term secular cycle.

Click HERE for original. Published December 9, 2022

The big NEPA roundup [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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  • NEPA is a procedural requirement for any project with federal involvement to do an environmental impact review before starting construction.
  • NEPA reviews often take several years to complete and can be used as a weapon by activist groups to delay or cancel projects they don’t like.
  • Op-eds have argued that NEPA allows excessive community input and is un-democratic, and that progressives are doing themselves a disservice by opposing Joe Manchin’s proposed permitting reforms.
  • Abolishing NEPA and replacing it with other procedures for enforcing environmental law has been suggested, though no guidance has been given on how to do that.
  • NEPA is a federal law that requires environmental reviews for certain projects, but it often delays projects that would improve environmental quality.
  • Think tanks have proposed various reforms to NEPA, such as extending favorable treatment to renewable energy projects, limiting judicial review, and creating special “corridors” with reduced permitting requirements.
  • Defenders of NEPA argue that it is necessary to protect the environment, and that delays are often due to other environmental regulations or lack of bureaucratic capacity.
  • They also suggest that NEPA can be a tool for speeding up decisions by coordinating information sharing between agencies.
  • NEPA is seen as a major obstacle to rapid deep decarbonization of the US economy.
  • Reforms to NEPA have been proposed, such as increasing agency staffing, using programmatic Environmental Impact Statements, allowing more renewable projects to use Environment Assessments and Categorical Exclusions, imposing time limits on some NEPA reviews, and requiring agencies to consider the positive environmental effects of a construction project.
  • James W. Coleman suggests that Congress should step in to restore a balance between making reviews more predictable and timelier while maintaining their rigor, and that energy projects should receive expedited review in the D.C. Circuit, with permits eventually being immunized from invalidation under NEPA if they are forced to wait an unreasonable length of time.

Click HERE for original. Published December 9, 2022

Why I’m Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency [Astral Codex Ten]

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  • Crypto has clear use cases in the developing world, where banking systems are often unreliable or inaccessible.
  • Scam rates in the crypto industry appear to be low, with no rug-pull-style scams among the 54 projects described in four articles from 2015-2020.
  • Investing in the top crypto projects of 2015 would have yielded a return of 25x, while the biggest cryptocurrencies by market cap of 2020 would have yielded a return of 2.7x.
  • Crypto is a technology with many legitimate uses, but is often associated with scams due to its long tail of fraudulent projects.
  • Crypto can be used as a form of insurance against authoritarianism, as it allows users to circumvent oppressive financial regulations.
  • Crypto is worse than the regular financial system in many ways, but its decentralization makes it useful for certain applications.
  • Crypto believers and detractors often focus on its ability to go up in value, but it can also be used for other purposes.
  • People in developed countries with good banking systems may not need crypto, but it can still be useful for those in less fortunate situations.

Click HERE for original. Published December 8, 2022

Yes, Supply and Demand Applies to Computer Science Degrees [Freddie deBoer]

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  • Supply and demand applies to computer science degrees, just like any other field.
  • The more people with computer science degrees, the lower the entry-level wages and the more competitive the job market.
  • Despite the “learn to code” movement, computer science degrees still have enviable outcomes in the job market, but there is a natural cap on the number of people who can enter the field.

Click HERE for original. Published December 8, 2022

Amtrak should build a good train [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

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  • Amtrak should focus on building a true high-speed rail infrastructure along the Northeast Corridor, connecting Washington, D.C. to New York and Boston via Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Haven, and Providence.
  • The Northeast Corridor has the potential to be one of the world’s great high-speed train markets due to its large cities and relatively short distances between them.
  • Building a strong Northeast Corridor route would not only benefit passengers, but also help relieve airport congestion in the region.
  • Amtrak should consider extending the Northeast Corridor to Richmond, Raleigh, Charlotte, and Atlanta, as well as to Toronto and other cities in the Midwest.

Click HERE for original. Published December 8, 2022

What’s Wrong With Parenting in America—and How to Fix It Emily Oster, ParentData]

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  • Jessica Grose and Yael Schonbrun discuss parenting in America, the problems and how to fix them.
  • Jessica Grose’s book, Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood, looks at the unreasonable expectations put on American mothers and how many of them are contradictory.
  • Yael Schonbrun’s book, Work, Parent, Thrive: 12 Science-Backed Strategies to Ditch Guilt, Manage Overwhelm, and Grow Connection (When Everything Feels Like Too Much), focuses on working parenthood and how to build the positive in order to make social progress.
  • The problem American parents are facing is that there is too much expected of them and not enough time, money, or social support to do it.
  • Yael’s Buddhist allegory of the first and second arrow explains how we can be mindful of the things we can’t control and less judgmental of ourselves.
  • Jessica Grose and Yael Schonbrun discussed structural issues and ways to optimize within current structures to make parenting and work easier.
  • Changes like paid leave are likely to happen in the next 20 years.
  • Technology can make work more flexible, but it will take time to adjust.
  • Subtracting from an overly full schedule can reduce stress.
  • Guilt is a normal emotion, but it is important to assess whether it is based on a real harm.

Click HERE for original. Published December 8, 2022

The dream of bringing back Bell Labs [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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  • Bell Labs was a famous corporate lab in the mid 20th century that was responsible for many breakthrough discoveries.
  • The rise of university research and the decline of corporate labs has changed the way America innovates.
  • There are attractive features of big corporate labs that the new innovation supply chain might lack, such as multi-disciplinary research and focus on general-purpose technologies.
  • A national electrical utility, Energy Bell, could potentially be a way to bring back something akin to the old Bell Labs.
  • The university-DARPA-startup innovation system is likely here to stay, and should be focused on making it more efficient, purposeful, and well-integrated.

Click HERE for original. Published December 8, 2022

The Politics of Consciousness | video lecture with Yuval Noah Harari [Yuval Noah Harari]

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Consciousness is characterized by the capacity to suffer and is the source of political authority in modern societies
The capacity to suffer is the determining factor of an entity‘s ethical and political standing
Questions of consciousness have an impact on ethical and political debates, from race and gender to ecology and taxation
Victimless crimes are now judged based on the potential to cause suffering to sentient beings, as opposed to being judged by divine commandment
• Theories of consciousness should be able to help us measure and scale suffering in order to be considered legitimate
• Debate is still raging about animal welfare and whether animals have the same kind of consciousness as humans
• Scholars must be careful when making claims about the ability to measure and scale consciousness as it could have explosive ethical and political implications
• If a strong Theory Of Consciousness is developed, it could lead to hierarchy of Consciousness between humans and other animals
• As artificial intelligence progresses, it is important to remember the difference between intelligence and consciousness and not privilege intelligent computers over conscious humans.

Published December 7, 2022
Visit YouTube to watch Yuval Noah Harari’s original lecture The Politics of Consciousness | video lecture with Yuval Noah Harari

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