Tag China

In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]

February 5, 2023

193 views

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• A U.S. Air Force F-22 fighter jet fired a missile to shoot down a Chinese spy balloon 6 miles off the South Carolina coast.
• The balloon had been flying above the U.S. for the last four days and was the size of three buses and weighed more than 1,000 pounds.
• U.S. defense officials took steps to protect against the balloon’s collection of sensitive information and the Navy will recover the equipment from the shallow waters where it fell.
• It is believed that the balloon was trying to gather intelligence information and the incident has been used by Republicans to score political points.
• Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled his planned visit to Beijing over the incident and it has offered Biden’s opponents an opportunity to say he is not countering China strongly enough.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 4, 2023

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Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

In Adam Tooze [Chartbook]

February 5, 2023

205 views

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• China’s real estate sector is facing a crisis, with developers defaulting on bonds and a large backlog of troubled projects.
• The construction boom has been the main driver of China’s unbalanced, investment-heavy, consumption-poor growth.
• In the late 1990s, real estate accounted for 8% of GDP, but by 2021 it had risen to 25%.
• In a single generation, China has built enough homes to house a billion people.
• The IMF report shows the Chinese authorities in a relatively calm mood, but Western observers are skeptical.
• Beijing has shifted from a restrictive and deflationary course to one of re-stimulating the real estate economy.
• A key challenge to restoring confidence is the large backlog of partially built housing.
• To stabilize the Chinese real estate market, a commitment of 5% of GDP is needed.
• If Beijing succeeds in managing the fallout, it would be an example of macro-prudential economic management on a world historic scale.

Published February 5, 2023
Visit Chartbook to read Adam Tooze’s original post Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?

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You are now living through Cold War 2 [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]

February 4, 2023

279 views

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• The Spy Balloon of 2023 is a sign that Cold War 2 is already here, and tensions between the U.S. and China are escalating.
• Calls for a return to the engagement strategy of the 1980s-2010s are coming from China and the U.S., but they are unlikely to be successful.
• The events of 2019-22, including the Hong Kong protests and China’s repression of the Uyghurs, will not be forgotten.
• China’s recent overtures have not been matched by more peaceful actions on the ground, and U.S. intelligence officials allege that China is preparing for action against Taiwan.
• China’s neighbors are forming balancing coalitions and seeking increased military cooperation with the U.S.
• The trend may be away from Chimerica, but there will still be plenty of trade between the two countries unless and until a major war breaks out.

Published February 4, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post You are now living through Cold War 2

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Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

February 3, 2023

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• Processing is an energy–intensive process which is usually done in multiple steps and in different facilities.
• China is the largest producer of raw and finished steel due to subsidies and low–interest loans.
• There are already plenty of social and technological anti-bot filters, and fear of backlash will limit adoption.
• Russia imports raw materials, uses their cheap power and coal to process and exports the value–added materials.
• The world is facing a crisis due to the economic, demographic and security issues in China and Russia.
• We need to prepare for a system where materials from these two countries face a significant decrease in production.
• It suggests that chatbots could be used to trick people into believing they are talking to a real person.
• February 17th webinar explores the economic implications of the Ukraine war and Russian minerals processing.

Published February 3, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Material Processing: The Redheaded Stepchild

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China’s Competitive Edge: Solar Exports [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

February 1, 2023

279 views

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• The Chinese government is considering putting export bans on certain types of solar panel manufacturing, specifically the ability to make the wafers and ingots that go into certain types of silicon panels.
• This potential ban could be a retaliation to recent actions taken by the United States.
• China has a history of dominating the manufacturing of technology, but not its innovation.
• The United States is mandating that a rising percentage of solar panels have to be manufactured in the United States, and the Chinese edge in the technology could be lost.
• The United States is unlikely to pursue industrial espionage, but South Korea, France, and Israel are the three countries most likely to do so.
• The Biden Administration is likely to either pursue technology transfer against the home country, or have South Korea steal the technology and negotiate with the United States.
• Solar panels are becoming more efficient and the political will to play hardball with China is present, so the Chinese leadership in the sector may be numbered.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog China’s Competitive Edge: Solar Exports

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Semiconductors: China’s the Odd Man Out [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

January 31, 2023

304 views

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• The US, Dutch and Japanese have joined the American sanctions package against China for high end semiconductors, creating an international ecosystem of production.
• The nature of the semiconductor industry requires multiple steps of production that must all be done in the same place, making it difficult to replace missing countries.
• The Dutch need a strong ally to avoid getting dragged into continental affairs and the US is the best option for them.
• The Japanese are co–mingled with the US through trade deals and are the only country to have struck deals with both the Trump and Biden administrations.
• Korea is the only country left to join the sanctions, but they are in a difficult spot with their neighbors.
• The Chinese are now out of the game for mid to high end chips, leaving the globalized system of trade for these chips in its final years.

Published January 31, 2023
Visit YouTube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Semiconductors: China’s the Odd Man Out

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How Not To Handle COVID: Chinese Edition [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

January 20, 2023

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China has always had an issue with information control, with data not matching what they report to the world.

China changed their policy to no longer collect data due to COVID, leading to questions about the accuracy of their reports.

Vaccines from China have been proven to be ineffective in preventing COVID.

It is difficult to predict what is going on in China due to the lack of data and the rapidly changing nature of the virus.

It may take up to 6 months to get a better understanding of the virus and the variants circulating in China, and how this will affect the rest of the world.

You can watch the full How Not To Handle COVID: Chinese Edition on YouTube – Published January 20, 2023

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Three books about the technology wars [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]

January 19, 2023

263 views

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• The U.S. and China are in a technological competition, with government policies aimed at dominating strategic high-tech industries poised to reshape the global economy.
• Three technologies are at the heart of the superpower rivalry: semiconductors, wireless networking, and AI.
• The U.S. is winning the semiconductor wars for now, with all the basic components in the hands of either the U.S. or its allies.
• China has kicked the U.S.’s butt in wireless tech, with Huawei dominating the market through a combination of corporate culture, research, IP theft, and state subsidies.
• In AI, Kai-Fu Lee argues that China will be able to dominate the U.S. through plentiful data, ruthless entrepreneurship, engineering talent, and government support.
• However, four years later, many of Lee’s predictions have proven wrong, and it is difficult to assess which country is actually leading in AI technology.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Three books about the technology wars

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Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]