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Germany Green-Lights the Tanks [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 25, 2023
270 views
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  • German and US governments have struck a deal to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine
  • The Germans have been hesitant to take a leadership role in military affairs in the past, so this is a major shift in policy
  • The Abrams Tanks provided by the US are the pinnacle of armored equipment development, but require significant logistical support to operate, which is not available in Europe
  • Leopard tanks are already used in Europe and can be delivered much more quickly to the Ukraine
  • The Abrams will signal a vote of confidence from the US, but will take longer to be ready for battle

You can watch the full Germany Green-Lights the Tanks on YouTube – Published January 25, 2023

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The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 24, 2023
257 views
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  • Ukrainians are vastly outmanned by the Russians, estimated to have 300,000 mobilized with 500,000 more coming by May/June
  • Ukrainians lack sufficient bullets to take out the additional Russian forces
  • Ukrainians need to inflict casualties at a ratio of 5:1 to prevail
  • Russians resupply primarily by rail and lost their supply line when the Kirch Bridge was taken out last year
  • Russians have been using vans, buses and even artillery shells on trucks to ferry troops around
  • Ukrainians have been attacking the truck Fleet of the Military, reducing it from 3,000 to 500
  • Ukrainians need to turn the war into one of movement to win, but the weather has not been cooperative
  • Russians are waiting for spring to throw extra half a million men in and come at the Ukrainians from multiple angles
  • Russians are trying to destroy morale/Ukrainian economy and kill civilians as much as possible using drones, missiles, etc.
  • Russians will shift their targeting from electricity infrastructure to agricultural infrastructure by June
  • This will have a significant impact on countries that normally import from Ukraine, especially Egypt, come October/November/December

You can watch the full The 2nd Holodomor: A Pending Genocide on YouTube – Published January 24, 2023

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How Not To Handle COVID: Chinese Edition [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 20, 2023
294 views
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  • China has always had an issue with information control, with data not matching what they report to the world.
  • China changed their policy to no longer collect data due to COVID, leading to questions about the accuracy of their reports.
  • Vaccines from China have been proven to be ineffective in preventing COVID.
  • It is difficult to predict what is going on in China due to the lack of data and the rapidly changing nature of the virus.
  • It may take up to 6 months to get a better understanding of the virus and the variants circulating in China, and how this will affect the rest of the world.

You can watch the full How Not To Handle COVID: Chinese Edition on YouTube – Published January 20, 2023

 

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Three books about the technology wars [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 19, 2023
265 views
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• The U.S. and China are in a technological competition, with government policies aimed at dominating strategic high-tech industries poised to reshape the global economy.
• Three technologies are at the heart of the superpower rivalry: semiconductors, wireless networking, and AI.
• The U.S. is winning the semiconductor wars for now, with all the basic components in the hands of either the U.S. or its allies.
• China has kicked the U.S.’s butt in wireless tech, with Huawei dominating the market through a combination of corporate culture, research, IP theft, and state subsidies.
• In AI, Kai-Fu Lee argues that China will be able to dominate the U.S. through plentiful data, ruthless entrepreneurship, engineering talent, and government support.
• However, four years later, many of Lee’s predictions have proven wrong, and it is difficult to assess which country is actually leading in AI technology.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Three books about the technology wars

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Keeping Nukes on the Table [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 19, 2023
287 views
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  • North Korea is keeping nuclear weapons as a possibility for future strategic development.
  • The United States has changed the way its military works and is no longer able to protect Global Commerce.
  • Secondary Powers (e.g. China, Brazil, India) are developing their own security policies.
  • South Korea, Japan, Taiwan are all close to having the capacity to develop nuclear weapons.
  • Other countries (e.g. Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania, Germany, Saudi Arabia) may also go nuclear in the near future.
  • These countries are going nuclear due to a lack of confidence in their ability to win a conventional conflict.

You can watch the full Keeping Nukes on the Table on YouTube – Published January 19, 2023

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Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 18, 2023
334 views
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  • Chinese demographic data released earlier this week is extremely concerning: Birth rate is at 1.16, the lowest in their history and the second lowest in human history, and the biggest cities have birth rates below 0.7.
  • The population peaked last year, dropping by 800,000 people.
  • The Chinese government has admitted to overcounting the population by 100 million people over the past 40 years due to the one-child policy.
  • China is now the fastest aging society in human history due to a lack of people under 40.
  • China is highly dependent on global trade and imports for oil, food, and raw materials – making them vulnerable to disruptions in the global economy.
  • If current trends continue, the Chinese demography will dissolve in the next 8-10 years, and there is no economic theory for how an economy might function in this situation.

You can watch the full Demographics Part 5: The Chinese Collapse on YouTube – Published January 18, 2023

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A New Wave of German Strategic Defense Policy [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 17, 2023
323 views
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  • Today, Christine Lambrecht, a German social democratic politician with no experience in defense, has resigned as Defense Minister.
  • Lambrecht’s appointment was intentionally intended to lead the Defense Ministry into a state of functional oblivion.
  • The changing geopolitical environment in Europe, with the resurgence of Russian military activity, has rendered Lambrecht’s lack of experience in defense matters a liability.
  • Her resignation provides an opportunity for Germany to revisit its strategic policy, particularly in regards to sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
  • This movement is further supported by pressure from other NATO member countries, including Denmark and Poland.
  • German approval is needed in order for these tanks to be shipped to Ukraine, and is expected to come soon.
  • This could potentially lead to further conversations in Germany about strategic policy and their own contribution to the military effort.

You can watch the full A New Wave of German Strategic Defense Policy on YouTube – Published January 17, 2023

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Sweden’s (Not So) Rare Earth Metals [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 16, 2023
231 views
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  • Swedish mining company has found a million metric tons of rare earth oxides
  • Rare earth metals are used in many technological applications
  • China currently dominates the rare earths market with around 90% of total supply
  • Swedish find is not as significant as initially thought due to large quantity needed to extract small amounts of rare earths .
  • Processing technologies are not new and have been used since the 1920s
  • Processing is toxic and time consuming
  • Chinese dominance is due to subsidizing of industry
  • Other countries have stockpiled and built processing capacity in case of Chinese cut off

You can watch the full Sweden’s (Not So) Rare Earth Metals on YouTube – Published January 16, 2023

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Be Independent! No, Not Like That [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

By Spencer Chen
In Freddie deBoer
January 16, 2023
212 views
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• The article discusses the difficulties of being professionally heterodox and the tendency for people to pigeonhole those who step outside of the usual partisan lines.
• It also discusses the tendency of those who claim to value independence and free thinking to only do so when it produces results they agree with.
• The author then goes on to list various rhetorical ploys used to avoid acknowledging America’s guilt in foreign countries, such as weaponized ignorance, whataboutism, and demand for unachievable rigor.
• The author concludes by recommending books to learn more about America’s conduct in the world.

Published January 16, 2023. Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post [Digest, 1/14/2023: Doctor, Doctor]

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Where in the World: Adair and Winds, pt. 2 [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 13, 2023
319 views
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  • Brazil: Its soil has no nutrient profile, so it is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers primarily from Russia. Disruption to the moisture profile could result in the loss of Brazil as a major global producer of foodstuffs.
  • Russia: Its wheat belt requires high levels of inputs, including foreign equipment and chemicals. Any disruption to the moisture profile could mean that Russia is no longer the world’s largest wheat exporter.
  • Western Australia: Its soil type has a low nutrient profile and, when water hits it, the clay particles engorge until they dissolve. Without huge amounts of capital and foreign inputs, disruption to the moisture profile could lead to the loss of Western Australia as a major breadbasket.

You can watch the full Where in the World: Adair and Winds, pt. 2 on YouTube – Published January 13, 2023

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