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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

Deglobalization: There’s No Stopping It Now [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

D

• Globalization for the US was never about economics or trade, but about security, as demonstrated by Cold War foreign policy.
• The US benefited from globalization due to its large economy, but now the rest of the world has a combined economy that is 3-4x larger making indirect economic subsidization untenable.
• US politics has shifted with the changing demographics, economics, and security, diminishing support for globalization.
• Demographic shifts (urbanization, industrialization, Baby Boomers) have resulted in a global population running out of people 40 and under, eliminating the ability to sustain the globalized system through trade.
• The Biden Administration is far more anti-globalization than the Trump Administration, meaning it would take at least 6 years for the US to re-enter the globalized system, by which point China will likely be gone.

Published February 2, 2023
Visit Youtube to watch Peter Zeihan’s original vlog Deglobalization: There’s No Stopping It Now

Hear the Wind on Mars [Katherine Harmon Courage, Nautilus]

H

• NASA released a recording of wind on Mars in December 2022, the first time humans have ever heard a Mars-made sound.
• The recording was captured by the NASA Perseverance rover’s microphone, which was on for less than 85 minutes in the first year of the mission.
• Scientists used the sound to estimate the density of dust grains in the dust devil.
• The wind on Mars is gentle, with atmospheric pressure just 1 percent of Earth’s.
• Dust devils on Mars are caused by hyperlocal temperature differences, which create just the right conditions to kick up swirling dust devils.
• Sound is exceedingly rare in the universe, and scientists are hoping to listen to liquid methane on Saturn’s moon Titan.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Katherine Harmon Courage’s original post Hear the Wind on Mars

The GOP Is Just Obnoxious [David Frum, The Atlantic]

T

• Mehmet Oz, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, mocked his opponent’s affliction during the campaign, leading to his defeat.
• Many other unsuccessful Republican candidates in 2022 offered voters weird, extreme, or obnoxious personas.
• Ron DeSantis, the Florida Governor, indulged in obnoxious stunts in 2022, but was an incumbent executive with a record of accomplishment.
• James Poniewozik’s 2019 book, *Audience of One*, argues that Trump’s ascendancy was the product of a huge shift in media culture.
• Republicans have built career paths for young people that start on extremist message boards and lead to jobs on Republican campaigns.
• Republicans have endured four bad elections in a row, and have failed to flip a single chamber in any state legislature.
• Democratic candidates don’t try to energize their base by “owning the conservatives”; they don’t have an obvious “base” the way that Republicans do.
• The Republican Party needs to start with something more basic: at least pretend to be nice.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read David Frum’s original post The GOP Is Just Obnoxious

Intel Pay-Cuts, and Revisiting the Dividend Question; Investor Honesty; AMD’s Earnings [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

I

• Intel is cutting management pay across the company to cope with a shaky economy and preserve cash for an ambitious turnaround plan.
• Intel is still committed to offering a competitive dividend, but analysts have speculated that the company may lower its payout to cope with the slowdown.
• Intel is cutting costs tremendously at the expense of their employees, including quarterly pay bonuses, annual bonuses, 401k match, merit-based raises, and a pay cut to all employees’ base salary.
• Intel should suspend the dividend when Pat Gelsinger announced IDM 2.0, but instead he pursued the same path as his predecessors.
• AMD is gaining marketshare in the data center, with sales to North American hyperscalers more than doubling year-over-year.
• AMD is back on top in terms of margin, with Intel’s underutilization of its fabs costing the company four points of margin.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Intel Pay-Cuts, and Revisiting the Dividend Question; Investor Honesty; AMD’s Earnings

UPDATE: Florida Commissioner of Education attacks Popular Information [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

U

• Florida Commissioner of Education Manny Diaz Jr. recently lashed out at Popular Information’s reporting on Florida classroom libraries, calling it “fake news from media activists too lazy to read [Florida] law.”
• Popular Information’s reporting was accurate and later confirmed by other outlets, including the Washington Post.
• Diaz told the National Review that teachers who packed up their classroom libraries were simply participating in a “stunt” intended to damage DeSantis politically.
• Diaz’s recommendations to teachers directly contradicts the training produced by his own agency, the Florida Department of Education.
• The Florida Department of Education will not answer basic questions about what kind of books are permitted in Florida schools.
• Right-wing activists hostile to Florida teachers are seizing on the opportunity to “get into the school Libraries” and determine whether teachers are “following the laws.”
• Chad Choate, the chair of the Manatee County School Board who was appointed by DeSantis, was the featured speaker at a meeting of the Manatee Patriots on Tuesday night.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post UPDATE: Florida Commissioner of Education attacks Popular Information

The Algae That Might Save Earth’s Coral Reefs [Juli Berwald, Nautilus]

T

• Scientists have discovered a new species of algae, *Durusdinium*, which may be a key factor in the survival of coral reefs, and Rob Rowan, who inspired the research, has mysteriously disappeared.
• The term “symbiosis” was coined by German botanist Anton de Bary in 1879.
• Karl Andreas Heinrich Brandt discovered that the small amber orbs lining the digestive tissues of marine creatures were not part of them, but a type of symbiotic algae, which he named “zooxanthellae”.
• Rob Rowan realized that DNA had the power to reveal what microscopes could not.
• Rowan and Dennis Powers published a genetic analysis of zooxanthellae in the journal Science, which revealed that zooxanthellae are not all the same and that there are at least three species.
• Andrew Baker and Rowan found that corals hosting the species *Durusdinium* did not bleach during a historic El Niño system, and that these corals became more common.
• Australian scientists discovered that juvenile coral hosting *Durusdinium* grew two to three times slower than their siblings hosting other symbionts.
• Baker believes that “people have been maybe too willing to label *Durusdinium* as being selfish” and suggests that something about *Durusdinium* stresses coral out, toughening them up so they can withstand future conditions.
• Baker and his colleagues followed the fates of more than 100 corals around the central Pacific island of Kiribati during a severe, 10-month-long heat wave and found that corals already hosting *Durusdinium* didn’t bleach, but few survived.
• In 2014, near Miami, coral researchers noticed that many brain coral, maze coral, and boulder coral were dying from Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease.
• Baker’s graduate student Caroline Dennison performed experiments bleaching *Breviolum* from the coral and then providing them with *Durusdinium* and found that the corals hosting *Durusdinium* were two to three times less susceptible to the disease.
• Rob Rowan, a scientist who inspired both the author and Andrew Baker, has disappeared without a trace.
• Baker is a scientist studying coral and their symbiotic relationship with algae.
• A new species of algae, *Durusdinium*, is being found in coral reefs and may be a key factor in their survival.
• Baker is unsure if this new species will save coral, but believes it will be a big part of their biology.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Juli Berwald’s original post The Algae That Might Save Earth’s Coral Reefs

How Ideologues Infiltrated the Arts [Rikki Schlott, The Free Press]

H

• Lincoln Jones, a celebrated Los Angeles-based choreographer, faced backlash for not posting a black square on his company’s Instagram in support of Black Lives Matter.
• Jones faced an uphill battle for funding, as many grant-giving institutions started to insist that applicants abide by new diversity requirements.
• Kevin Ray is suing New 42, a performing arts nonprofit in Manhattan, for forcing him and other employees to take DEI instruction and read “racially-discriminatory propaganda.”
• Following the death of George Floyd, a petition called “We See You, White American Theater” was circulated, dubbing the theater community “a house of cards built on white fragility and supremacy.”
• Keith Wann, a sign language interpreter who worked on a production of The Lion King, alleged that he was removed from the production because he is white.
• Title VII federal law—part of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 prohibiting employment discrimination based on race, color, religion, sex, and national origin—means hiring people purely on the basis of race could be deemed “a potential violation.”
• Even some artists who are far in their career are too scared to comment about the new DEI demands.
• Renowned Broadway theater producer Rocco Landesman said he started noticing DEI creeping into the arts world around 2013 and has “no doubt” that “we’re seeing increasingly coercive guidelines.”
• Bari Jones, a ballet dancer and founder of the American Contemporary Ballet, has noticed a shift in the arts world towards a focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI).
• This shift has been noticed by Rocco Landesman, a former chairman of the National Endowment for the Arts, who believes that DEI initiatives are becoming increasingly coercive.
• Landesman was shocked when a San Francisco school board voted to paint over a mural of George Washington because it was deemed offensive to black and Native Americans.
• Many arts funders have made social justice the criteria for grants, and some require DEI statements or demographic data from applicants.
• The Ford Foundation has dedicated $160 million specifically to BIPOC arts organizations, and President Biden has signed an Executive Order on Promoting the Arts, the Humanities, and the Museum and Library Services.
• Bari Jones is still trying to keep the American Contemporary Ballet afloat without giving in to DEI demands, and Landesman worries about what is happening to the world of art.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Rikki Schlott’s original post How Ideologues Infiltrated the Arts

January 31, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

J

• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is having to grapple with the difference between the rhetoric that fires up the Republican base and the reality of governance.
• McCarthy won the votes to become speaker by promising the far-right members of the Republican conference a number of things, including that he would not agree to raising the debt ceiling without demanding cuts in federal spending.
• This argument mixed together two separate things: the debt ceiling, which must be lifted to enable the government to pay for money already appropriated, and the budget, which is a plan for spending money in the future.
• Republicans have backed off on demanding cuts to Social Security and Medicare after facing a backlash.
• President Joe Biden and the Democrats have said that they will not negotiate over the debt ceiling.
• On Wednesday, Biden and McCarthy will meet in person.
• National Economic Council Director Brian Deese and Office of Management Budget Director Shalanda Young sent a memo to the Republicans pointing out that protecting the security of the national debt has always been a bipartisan commitment.
• At a Democratic National Committee fundraiser today, Biden mourned the loss of the mainstream Republicans of the past and lamented McCarthy’s willingness to cater to extremists for power.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 31, 2023

Friend-shoring vs. “Buy American” [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

F

• The Biden administration has kept tariffs on China and is considering outbound investment restrictions, but is also emphasizing the idea of “friend-shoring”—moving supply chains out of China and into friendly countries.
• The U.S. should incentivize high-tech manufacturing in the U.S., but it needs to be done with robots, not labor-intensive manufacturing.
• The U.S. needs to build a large coalition of allies and friends to balance China, and should err on the side of deference to those allies.
• The U.S. should offer Japan and South Korea full access to the U.S. market, including tax credits, to negate China’s advantage.
• The U.S. should not try to force small allies and friends to appreciate their currency against the dollar, as this would be stingy and selfish.

Published February 1, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Friend-shoring vs. “Buy American”

Do You Want Cancel Culture to Exist? [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

D

• The argument that Louis CK’s sold-out show at Madison Square Garden proves there’s no such thing as cancel culture is flawed.
• The boundaries of cancel culture are vague, but it can be defined as “a culture where social norms are enforced with repeated and vociferous public shaming”.
• The fact that someone has endured or recovered from the repercussions of public shaming does not mean that there are no repercussions or that those repercussions are fair.
• The argument that Louis CK’s success disproves cancel culture requires the very thing it laments – that is, for the argument to be valid, there must be figures like Louis CK who escape/survive the consequences of public shaming.
• The culture of public shaming appears to be loosening, but this may be due to public exhaustion with the constant demand to be outraged.

Published January 31, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post Do You Want Cancel Culture to Exist?

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