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January 13, 2023 (Friday) [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen

In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]

January 14, 2023

190 views

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• Russia released American Taylor Dudley, who had been held since April in Kaliningrad, a slice of land between Poland and Lithuania.
• Cervical cancer rates have dropped 65% among women in their early 20s, likely due to HPV vaccinations.
• Inflation rates have slowed due to falling gas prices and airfares, and the federal budget deficit fell significantly in 2022.
• The US is about to hit the debt ceiling, and House Republicans are preparing an emergency plan to breach it, which would cut off 20% of government spending.
• Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that failure to meet the government’s obligations would cause irreparable harm to the US economy.
• Former President Trump was fined $1.6 million for a tax fraud scheme, and Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes approved prosecutors’ request to investigate him for inspiring the January 8 attack on Brazil’s presidential offices.

Published January 14, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

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Is the Fed hiking too fast? [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen

In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]

January 14, 2023

259 views

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• Inflation is slowing but still above target, with headline inflation very low and core inflation moderate but above target.
• Many are worried about a recession, with an inverted yield curve being a decent predictor of slowing economic activity.
• The labor market is still strong, with payrolls adding 223,000 jobs in December and the prime-age employment-population ratio still around 80%.
• The Fed started hiking rates in March 2022, but some argue that the rate hikes haven’t had time to affect the economy yet and are unnecessary.
• Research is divided on how long it takes for rate hikes to have an effect, with some studies predicting a hump-shaped effect and others predicting a gradually increasing impact.
• It’s possible that fiscal policy is playing a role in the moderation of inflation, with deficits closing in late 2021 and disposable personal income stopping being anomalously high around the same time.
• As long as the trend continues, the Fed will likely taper off its rate increases, with the conquest of the post-pandemic inflation underway.

Published January 14, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

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Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By Spencer Chen

In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]

January 13, 2023

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• Conspiracy theories can be divided into two types: those that are used to explain away anomalies in a narrative, and those that are used to explain away emotions.
• The first type of conspiracy theory is often used to explain away anomalies in a narrative, such as the bullet trajectory in the Kennedy assassination or the Great Pyramid’s latitude matching the speed of light.
• The second type of conspiracy theory is often used to explain away emotions, such as hatred of the global elite or anger at a partner.
• These conspiracy theories are often driven by emotions such as anxiety, depression, and anger, which can lead to biased processing of information.
• In the case of Trump-Russiagate, the conspiracy theory was appealing because it provided a single, irrefutable reason to hate Trump.
• In the case of the Global Adrenochrome Pedophile Cabal, the conspiracy theory was appealing because it provided a way to justify intense antipathy towards the global elite.

Published January 13, 2023. Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post.

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January 12, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen

In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]

January 13, 2023

208 views

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• Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Robert Hur as special counsel to investigate President Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents.
• House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Congress should conduct its own investigation.
• Republicans have tried to suggest that Biden was being treated differently than Trump is, but the appointment of a special counsel undermines that.
• Biden’s team offered up to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) the information that Biden had documents in his possession, and is apparently cooperating with the Justice Department.
• Trump is apparently being investigated for obstruction and for violations of the Espionage Act.
• Arguments began today in the trial of five Proud Boys for their actions associated with the events of January 6, 2021.
• The Justice Department today argued that the Proud Boys led the attack on the Capitol, while defense attorneys argued that their clients were being used as “scapegoats” for Trump.

Published January 13, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

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Where in the World: Adair and Winds, pt. 2 [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain

In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics

January 13, 2023

323 views

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• Brazil: Its soil has no nutrient profile, so it is heavily dependent on imported fertilizers primarily from Russia. Disruption to the moisture profile could result in the loss of Brazil as a major global producer of foodstuffs.
• Russia: Its wheat belt requires high levels of inputs, including foreign equipment and chemicals. Any disruption to the moisture profile could mean that Russia is no longer the world’s largest wheat exporter.
• Western Australia: Its soil type has a low nutrient profile and, when water hits it, the clay particles engorge until they dissolve. Without huge amounts of capital and foreign inputs, disruption to the moisture profile could lead to the loss of Western Australia as a major breadbasket.

You can watch the full Where in the World: Adair and Winds, pt. 2 on YouTube – Published January 13, 2023

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Inside Pollen’s Transparent Compensation Data [Gergely Orosz, The Pragmatic Engineer]

By Spencer Chen

In Gergely Orosz [The Pragmatic Engineer]

January 12, 2023

271 views

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• Pollen was an events tech startup founded in 2015, which raised more than $200M in funding and employed about 600 people by 2022.
• After a series of layoffs, the company ran out of money and entered administration last August, leaving employees unpaid.
• Pollen implemented pay transparency, allowing employees to view compensation details for every role at the company.
• This article dissects the pay transparency report, covering Pollen’s compensation philosophy, tech compensation numbers, regional pay differences, highest and lowest-paid roles, budgets by organization, and inspiration to take from the report.
• Subscribers have access to a cleaned and browsable version of the data set, with 18 diagrams analyzing the data.

Published January 12, 2023. Visit The Pragmatic Engineer to read Gergely Orosz’s original post.

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Can ‘radioactive data’ save the internet from AI’s influence? [Casey Newton, Platformer]

By Spencer Chen

In [Platformer]

January 12, 2023

193 views

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• AI-generated text is increasingly being used in mainstream media, with CNET and the Associated Press using automation technology to publish articles.
• Character A.I. is a website that allows users to interact with chatbots that mimic real people and fictional characters.
• AI-generated text can be used to spread propaganda and other influence operations, and is difficult to detect.
• Solutions to this problem include regulating AI models, regulating access to them, developing tools to identify AI influence operations, and promoting media literacy.
• Platforms can also collaborate with AI developers to identify inauthentic content, and the concept of “radioactive data” has been proposed as a way to trace AI-generated text back to its source.

Published January 13, 2023. Visit Platformer to read Casey Newton’s original post.

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Can I Wear a MAGA Hat To My Government Job? [Ken White, Popehat]

By Spencer Chen

In Ken White [The Popehat Report]

January 12, 2023

285 views

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• The Ninth Circuit recently ruled in Dodge v. Evergreen School District that Eric Dodge, a sixth-grade teacher from Vancouver, Washington, was entitled to a trial on his claim that school district officials violated his First Amendment rights by threatening to discipline him for wearing a MAGA hat to teacher training.
• The First Amendment protects public employees differently depending on whether the government is wearing its sovereign hat or its employer hat.
• To show a violation of the First Amendment, a public employee must show that the state actor engaged in an “adverse employment action” against the plaintiff as a result of their speech.
• The government must establish that it had a legitimate administrative interest in preventing or punishing the speech that outweighed the employee’s interest in exercising their First Amendment rights.
• The more the employee’s speech resembles core First Amendment expression (like political speech), the harder it is for the government to make this showing.
• Even when First Amendment rights are violated, there may not be a remedy due to the judicially created doctrine of “qualified immunity.”

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Popehat to read Ken White’s original post.

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The Eggconomy [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen

In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]

January 12, 2023

180 views

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• Eggs are expensive right now, but they are actually less expensive than they were – according to Brighton Capital, the wholesale price for large conventional eggs has fallen from $5.10/dozen to $4.63.
• The eggconomy is emblematic of the broader economy – driven by the laws of supply and demand, and the hen/human ratio is at a 15-year low.
• The Federal Reserve is focused on a few things within their 2% inflation target – Fed cred, Fed recession goals, Fed beef, and 2% inflation.
• A soft landing would be when vacancies can decline substantially taking pressure off inflation without driving unemployment way up.
• The housing market is bonkers – housing inflation, consumers freaking out, and rents slowing down.
• Flight delays due to an ancient piece of technology is emblematic of a lot of American infrastructure.
• The debt ceiling debate is a stupid bargaining chip in a larger stupid circus.
• The economy is a fragile piece of technology that needs to be carefully managed.
• Hope is an ax you break down doors with in an emergency – it calls for action and is impossible without it.

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post.

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ChatGPT and Winograd’s Dilemma [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

By Spencer Chen

In Freddie deBoer

January 12, 2023

300 views

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• ChatGPT is a recently-unveiled AI chatbot that has been met with mixed reviews.
• Microsoft has invested $10 billion in its developer.
• Terry Winograd proposed two sentences to test AI’s ability to parse natural language.
• Coindexing is an essential step to decoding sentences, and it is dependent on the verb.
• AI must have a theory of the world in order to understand language.
• ChatGPT has passed Winograd’s test, but it is not basing its coindexing on a theory of the world.
• Douglas Hofstadter’s work on creating a machine that thinks the way a human thinks is still in its infancy.

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post.

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