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How Walgreens manufactured a media frenzy about shoplifting [Tesnim Zekeria & Judd Legum, Popular Information]

By Spencer Chen

In [Popular Information]

January 12, 2023

287 views

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• Walgreens has been claiming that shoplifting is an existential threat to their business, but recently their CFO admitted that they may have “cried too much” about the issue.
• Publicly available data contradicts the theft-wave narrative, with shoplifting offenses dropping 46% between 2019 and 2021.
• Walgreens has been closing stores in San Francisco due to alleged shoplifting, but police data revealed that the stores had fewer than two recorded shoplifting incidents a month on average since 2018.
• Walgreens’ claims were spread unchecked by major news organizations, with the New York Times publishing at least six stories warning readers of retail theft.
• The overblown claims in this media coverage have political consequences, with California Republican Chair Jessica Millan Patterson using the Walgreens closures as evidence that “Democratic policies have created a crime spike.”

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Popular Information to read Tesnim Zekeria’s original post.

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FULL Leadership Series: Leaders of the Present and Recent Past [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain

In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics

January 12, 2023

273 views

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China:

• Ruled by Chairman of the CCP Xi Jinping, who is effectively a dictator for life.

• Geographically diverse with distinct regions, customs and identities.

• Centralizing control, while allowing local autonomy must be balanced to rule.

• Purge of power centers and dissent stamped out under Xi Jinping.

Russia:

• Ruled by Vladimir Putin since a KGB coup in 1982.

• Supported by an extremely small and concentrated elite, partnered with organized crime.
• Limited sources of information makes Russia prone to ossification and policy errors.

• Russian assault in Ukraine motivated by fear of invasion, which could lead to complete state collapse.

Saudi Arabia:

• Millennial leader Muhammad bin Salman likely to be in power for the next 50 years.

• Resources to rally allies against Iran, and a post-American Middle East could make his goal of destroying the Iranian state more achievable.

U.S. Presidents:

• Bill Clinton: Highly intelligent and easily distracted leader who led from behind and followed public opinion.

• George W. Bush: Brainiest cabinet ever, delegated authority to reshape the world, management style changed after 9/11.

• Barack Obama: Ran on Charisma, lacked a grown-up job, out of his depth once in office. Led to the rise of Donald Trump.

• Donald Trump: Embraced the party, ran on policy and Limelight, but lacked follow-up and management skills.

• Joe Biden: Been in the Senate since the Crusades, guided by ideology, and is the most engaged president in 13-14 years. Understands the power of government and trusts the tools of State.

You can watch the full FULL Leadership Series: Leaders of the Present and Recent Past on YouTube – Published January 12, 2023

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January 11, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen

In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]

January 12, 2023

261 views

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• House Republicans have reverted to culture wars and passed a bill to cut funding for the IRS, which would add to the deficit.
• The Biden administration has responded with criticism, and the Senate will not pass the bill.
• The House also passed two anti-abortion measures, which will not pass the Senate.
• Bloomberg’s editors and Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin have criticized the Republican Party for its lack of a governing agenda.
• Four new Republican representatives from New York called on Representative George Santos (R-NY) to resign due to his lies about his education, work experience, and finances.
• California has been pummeled by storms, creating floods and mudslides, and Governor Newsom and President Biden have declared a state of emergency.

Published January 12, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

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A Toasty Winter in Europe [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain

In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics

January 11, 2023

291 views

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• Unusually warm temperatures in Europe have caused a decrease in energy demand as heating is not as necessary.

• This has freed up energy for industrial needs, allowing for nitrogen fertilizer production to come back at scale.

• Further east in Ukraine, the mud season is being extended due to the warm temperatures, preventing the Ukrainian military from carrying out an offensive.

• This weather has been beneficial for Western and Central Europe and has provided a pause in the Ukraine war.

You can watch the full A Toasty Winter in Europe on YouTube – Published January 11, 2023

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Gas Stoves and Asthma [Emily Oster, ParentData]

By Spencer Chen

In Emily Oster [ParentData]

January 11, 2023

221 views

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• A new paper suggests that gas stoves are responsible for 12.7% of childhood asthma cases, but existing literature on the relationship between gas stoves and asthma is mixed.
• The paper’s estimates are based on an assumption from existing literature that gas stove ownership increases asthma rates by about 30%.
• Studies have found positive correlations between asthma and gas stove exposure, but the effects are a bit noisy and do not necessarily paint a consistent picture.
• Cross-sectional data at the state level does not suggest a strong relationship between gas stove ownership and childhood asthma rates.
• Replacing gas stoves is not likely to be necessary for most people, but those with children with (or at risk for) asthma may want to consider it.
• If not replacing the gas stove, running the hood fan and using a HEPA filter with an activated carbon filter can help reduce nitrogen dioxide levels.

Published January 11, 2023. Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post.

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“Director of First Impressions”: How corporations use phony titles to dodge billions in overtime [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

By Spencer Chen

In [Popular Information]

January 11, 2023

300 views

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• Corporations are giving workers in low-wage jobs fancy-sounding titles in order to evade the requirements of the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) and deny them overtime pay, resulting in $4 billion in overtime payments avoided annually.
• To be exempt from overtime pay, an employee must pass three tests: the salary basis test, the salary test, and the duties test.
• Misclassifying workers to evade overtime pay laws is illegal but not uncommon, with a 485% increase in the usage of managerial titles for salaried employees just above the salary threshold set in the Federal Labor Standards Act.
• Major companies such as JPMorgan, Avis Budget Car Rental, and Walmart have been ordered to pay millions in back wages and damages for misclassifying employees and failing to pay them overtime.
• The companies with the highest percentage of “overtime avoiding positions” include Arby’s, Sonic Drive-In, Pizza Hut, Domino’s, Jiffy Lube, Burger King, GNC, H&R Block, Dairy Queen, Subway, Jimmy John’s, Little Caesars, Office Max, and KFC.

Published January 11, 2023. Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post.

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Got (Raw) Milk? How the Cow Became a Culture Warrior [Suzy Weiss, The Free Press]

By Spencer Chen

In [The Free Press]

January 11, 2023

329 views

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• Kale Hyder, a 23-year-old Morgan Stanley analyst, has shifted away from plant-based milk and meat replicas to whole foods, including sirloin, raw butter, grass-fed raw milk cottage cheese, and raw milk.
• Raw milk has become increasingly popular in the past few years, as people seek to regain control over their food and break with convention.
• Raw milk is illegal to sell for human consumption in most states, but there are loopholes and legal gray areas that allow people to access it.
• The appeal of raw milk is twofold: it represents a time before everything got screwed up, and it’s a challenge and a way of raging against the machine.
• The raw milk movement has been bolstered by the likes of Joshua Rainer, who moved from California to Colorado to become a farmhand, and Connor, who created the website GetRawMilk.
• The latest flashpoint in the raw milk wars is Amos Miller Organic Farm, which is being sued for $305,000 by the federal government.

Published January 11, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read Suzy Weiss’s original post.

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A new plan to get around the debt ceiling hostage [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

By Spencer Chen

In [Slow Boring]

January 11, 2023

310 views

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• The Treasury Department can use a bond yield trick to raise money without increasing the face value of the debt, which would help them get around the debt ceiling issue.
• This involves offering a bond with a high interest rate and seeing how much money people will give them for it.
• This would slow the pace at which the face value of debt accumulates and even start to reduce the face value of the debt over time.
• This would be done by swapping out old bonds with high face values and low interest rates for equivalent-yielding bonds with low face values and high interest rates.
• The Treasury Department has proposed issuing high-yield bonds to avoid a debt ceiling fight with Republicans.
• This would be a way to avoid doing something flagrantly illegal, as the executive branch has an obligation to pay what it owes according to the laws that exist.
• The biggest practical problem is that troublemakers only need to find one insane district court judge somewhere in the country to order a national injunction and create at least a temporary crisis.
• Joe Biden and his cabinet secretaries do not have the legal authority to blow off the law and not spend what Congress has told them to spend.
• The importance of shooting the hostage is to take the debt ceiling issue off the table and separate the debate over the debt ceiling from the debate over fiscal policy.
• Biden should do a big speech calling for a bipartisan commission on deficit reduction and have the Treasury start working on some high-yield bonds.

Published January 11, 2023. Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post.

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Meta’s EU Fine; First-Party versus Third-Party Data, Redux; The EU’s First Party Imposition [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

By Spencer Chen

In Ben Thompson [Stratechery]

January 11, 2023

190 views

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• Meta Platforms Inc. was fined €390 million ($414 million) by the European Union’s main privacy watchdog for the way users’ data is used for personalized ads on its Facebook and Instagram units.
• The Irish Data Protection Commission found that Meta’s terms of service requiring users to accept personalized ads when signing up to the social media services violated EU rules.
• The EU ruling is not about third-party data, but rather first-party data; Meta argued that using first-party user data for advertising is integral to the service, and thus they can make access to their services contingent upon agreeing to letting one’s data be used for advertising.
• The EU disagreed, finding that Meta was illegally “forcing” users to let their data be used for personalized advertising.
• Meta must now offer personalized social networking to users without tying that to offering personalized ads, which is likely to have a broad impact on companies that use first-party data for advertising.

Published January 11, 2023. Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post.

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January 10, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen

In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]

January 11, 2023

202 views

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• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil gathered around him the president of the supreme court and the governors or vice-governors of each state, the senators, the attorney general, and congressional representatives to condemn the coup and reclaim the vandalized buildings.
• Police have arrested about 1500 participants and have warrants for the arrest of two key law enforcement officials close to Bolsonaro.
• Former Trump advisor Steve Bannon remains adamant that Lula must be replaced, while Bolsonaro is in the U.S. on an A-1 visa.
• The House voted on the rules package McCarthy promised to the far-right Republicans, which includes a threat to McCarthy and plum committee assignments for the far-right group.
• Jim Jordan will chair the select subcommittee in the Judiciary Committee to investigate the “weaponization of the federal government”.
• President Joe Biden’s lawyers found “a small number” of classified documents from his vice-presidential years in a locked closet in Biden’s former office and immediately contacted the National Archives and Records Administration.
• Former Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg was sentenced to five months in jail at New York’s Rikers Island complex and five years probation after pleading guilty to 15 felonies.

Published January 11, 2023. Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

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