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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

More on Google and AI; OpenAI, Integration, and Microsoft [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

M

• Google is the default in every browser and on every phone, and people have over two decades of habits of using Google for everything, making it difficult for competitors to gain traction.
• Google’s acquisition record is strong, and the company is well-placed to benefit from AI, with YouTube, Android, GCP, and DeepMind all being major assets.
• Microsoft is in talks to invest $10 billion into OpenAI, valuing the firm at $29 billion, and giving Microsoft a 49% stake.
• Microsoft’s investment is likely driven by its ability to offer attractive rates and monetize the output of OpenAI’s products, as well as its deep pockets and patience.

Published January 10, 2023. Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post.

We Have a Tripledemic. Not of Disease, But of Fear. [Vinay Prasad, The Free Press]

W

• The media has been filled with stories about the “tripledemic” of Covid-19, influenza, and RSV, which is being blamed for high rates of illness and hospitalizations, especially among children.
• The best available evidence contradicts the narrative from the media and many public health officials, and the insistence on never-ending precautions in the face of inevitable exposure to germs is not only medically misguided, it also threatens to stigmatize the most mundane human interactions.
• There is limited evidence that the tripledemic exists, and no evidence that prolonged precautions delay the inevitable.
• There is no avoiding respiratory viruses, and it is natural, healthy, and necessary for young children to be exposed to many viruses in order to build immunity.
• The evidence to support masking was thin before Covid-19, and there is no evidence that masking young children for Covid-19, flu, and RSV viruses is effective.
• Covid-19 disrupted all aspects of life, and as the disruptions fade, other viruses have inevitably returned. Hospitals should prepare for this, and federal reimbursement should pay for pediatric beds.

Published January 10, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read the original post.

The right to compete [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

T
• The FTC has proposed a new rule that would ban noncompete clauses in the US, which would render all existing noncompete clauses null and void.
• Noncompete clauses are estimated to reduce worker earnings by $250 billion to $296 billion per year.
• Noncompete clauses are increasingly being used for low-wage workers, such as fast-food workers and manual laborers.
• The Chamber of Commerce is opposing the FTC’s proposed rule, claiming noncompete clauses “preserv[e] competition” and “foster innovation.”
• The FTC has also announced an enforcement action against several companies exploiting workers with noncompete clauses.

Changing Tides in the Chinese System [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

C
  • China is facing demographic and economic collapse within the decade.
  • Technological restrictions from the United States are likely to cripple their tech sector.
  • Their energy sector is completely dependent upon access to the Middle East.
  • Their financial and agricultural sectors are in disarray.
  • The Chinese have resorted to aggressive, hateful nationalist propaganda.
  • Zhao, a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the face of China on the international stage, was recently demoted.
  • This may be an indication that China is realizing they need to change diplomatic gears in order to survive.

You can watch the full Changing Tides in the Chinese System on YouTube – Published January 7, 2023

 

The Poland/Malaysia model [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

T

• Poland and Malaysia have both achieved impressive economic growth in recent decades, despite relying heavily on foreign direct investment.
• Both countries have built up world-class manufacturing sectors, with electronics and automotive goods forming the backbone of their exports.
• Malaysia has done this by creating special economic zones and offering incentives to foreign companies to invest there, while Poland has benefited from its proximity to Europe and its accession to the EU.
• Both countries have yet to move into higher-value-added activities, and are struggling to upgrade their productivity levels.
• Ha-Joon Chang and other industrial policy fans are suspicious of FDI due to potential crowding out of domestic companies, stunting of local growth, and potential for property value bubbles and crashes.
• Poland and Malaysia may now be running into this problem, with McKinsey citing Poland’s need to develop or acquire strong brands and Malaysia’s failure to build domestic champions.
• Poor countries may benefit from an FDI-centric strategy as it is simple and straightforward, and could potentially lead to escaping poverty.
• Poland and Malaysia may have found the secret to getting upper-middle-class quick, rather than getting rich quick.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

The Creative Underclass is Still Raging [Freddie deBoer]

T

• The internet is full of negative emotion, and the creative underclass is still raging.
• People with unrealized dreams in creative industries are often angry due to thwarted ambition and the sense that they were meant for more than comfort.
• These people are often college-educated and gainfully employed, yet they are still resentful of those who have succeeded in creative fields.
• They are often jealous of those who have achieved success despite no clear advantage in talent, worth, or effort.
• Nate Silver is an example of someone who is conspicuously successful and enviable, and thus a target of the creative underclass.
• The economics of media and publishing have shifted since the heyday of Gawker, making it impossible for a new Gawker to emerge today.
• Professional writing is still enviable, but the rewards are far more humble than in the past.
• It’s difficult to have an appropriate perspective on the anger from those who don’t have the same opportunities as the creative underclass.
• Bullshit jobs aren’t that bad, and most people would kill to have them.
• We need to shatter the myth of just deserts and remind people that they don’t control their own destinies.
• We can never achieve a world where everyone enjoys public acclaim, and people need to find a way to deal with that.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit Freddie deBoer’s substack to read the original post.

AI and the Big Five [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

A

• AI has emerged as a major technology in 2022, with image generation models such as DALL-E, MidJourney, and Stable Diffusion, and text-generation model ChatGPT leading the way.
• Clayton Christensen’s The Innovator’s Dilemma explains the different kinds of innovations, and how incumbents have fared in previous tech epochs.
• Apple has taken advantage of the open source Stable Diffusion model, optimizing it for its own chips and operating systems, and potentially building it into its OS.
• Amazon is leveraging its cloud services to provide GPUs for training and inference, but must gauge demand for these services.
• Marginal costs of AI generation may make it challenging to achieve product-market fit, and costs should come down over time as models become more efficient and cloud services gain returns to scale.
• AI is a massive opportunity for Meta, Google, and Microsoft, and all three companies are investing heavily in the technology.
• Meta is investing in AI to power its services, better target ads, and recommend content from across its network.
• Google has a go-to-market gap and a business-model problem when it comes to AI, but its technology is still the best on the market.
• Microsoft is investing in the infrastructure of the AI epoch, and is well-placed to benefit from the disruption of AI.
• OpenAI may become the platform on which all other AI companies are built, and Nvidia and TSMC may be the biggest winners.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post.

Florida English teacher pushing book bans is openly racist and homophobic, students allege [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

F

• Vicki Baggett, an English teacher at Northview High School in Florida, is pushing for the Escambia County School District to remove nearly 150 books from school libraries, claiming they could make white students “feel uncomfortable.”
• Former and current students allege Baggett openly promoted racist and homophobic beliefs in class, including opposing interracial marriage and questioning why black people get tattoos in black ink.
• Baggett is also a member of the Daughters of the Confederacy and defended posting an image of the Confederate Flag to her Facebook page.
• Baggett has challenged books with LGBTQ themes, claiming they promote the “LGBTQ agenda.”
• A Northview parent emailed the principal in 2019 objecting to Baggett’s classroom conduct, including her comments that homosexuals are “DUMB/STUPID” and that men and women should “Know Their Role.”
• A current student in Baggett’s 12th grade English class alleges Baggett played an audio version of A Good Man Is Hard to Find that included the unredacted racial slur.
• The Escambia County School District condemned any form of discriminatory speech but did not answer questions about Baggett’s behavior.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post.

How DEI Is Supplanting Truth as the Mission of American Universities [John Sailer, The Free Press]

H

• UCLA accounting lecturer Gordon Klein was placed on leave and banned from campus after refusing to grade black students more leniently in the wake of the George Floyd protests.
• After a counter-petition signed by more than 76,000 people, Klein was allowed to return to the classroom.
• The principles of “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) have become guiding principles in higher education, valued as equal to or even more important than the basic function of the university.
• DEI has become a priority for many of the organizations that accredit universities, and universities are pressured to adopt DEI measures.
• College students are now required to take DEI, anti-racism, or social justice courses, and DEI is becoming a de facto academic discipline.
• Faculty position listings at universities across the country illustrate how a focus on race, gender, social justice, and critical theory can be crucial to landing a job.
• DEI initiatives are becoming increasingly prevalent in higher education, with many universities now considering faculty members’ contributions to DEI as a criterion for hiring, promotion, and tenure.
• The federal government is also doing its part to infuse DEI into the sciences, with the Department of Energy’s Office of Science mandating that all new research proposals include a Promoting Inclusive and Equitable Research (PIER) Plan.
• This fixation on DEI can have a stultifying effect on medical research, and eventually medical care, as it crowds out other, more consequential areas of scientific research.
• Jonathan Haidt, a professor of ethical leadership at New York University’s Stern School of Business, has warned about this redefinition of racism and the rise of ideological groupthink in academia.
• Organizations such as the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) and the National Association of Scholars have issued numerous statements opposing DEI requirements that violate the First Amendment.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read the original post.

In defense of “The West Wing” [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

I

• Bernie Sanders praised the show “The West Wing” for its accurate portrayal of the White House, but it has since become an article of faith in the Berniesphere that the show is reflective of everything wrong with the Democratic Party.
• The show accurately conveys the idea that there are a lot of sincere people in politics who are committed to their ideas and to advancing public policy in better directions.
• It also illustrates that Americans like outsiders in presidential politics, but not radicals, and that presidents have a big impact on the national mood, even if they don’t accomplish much legislatively.
• The show also highlights some odd and neglected aspects of the American political system, such as the order of succession problem and the potential for debt ceiling mischief.
• However, the show has one major flaw in that it has a small cast of characters, which underrates the actual complexity of the American federal government.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post.

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