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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

Puberty, Postpartum, and Adaptation [Emily Oster, ParentData]

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• Lauren Fleshman and Molly Huddle are professional women runners. Lauren is the author of Good for a Girl: A Woman Running in a Man’s World and Molly co-wrote How She Did It with Sara Slattery.
• They discussed the challenges of adapting to body changes during puberty and postpartum, and how these changes can be difficult to navigate in male-dominated spaces.
• They discussed how the current sports system is not designed to accommodate the changes that girls and women go through, and how this can lead to a drop-off in participation.
• They discussed how providing resources such as sports bras and breast education can help girls and women adjust to their changing bodies and continue to participate in sports.
• They discussed how the expectations of fitting into a male mold can be damaging, and how it is important to create a culture that is more inclusive and accommodating of women’s needs.
• Molly discussed her experience with maternity clauses in her contracts, and how advocacy from Alysia Montaño and Allyson Felix changed the landscape for female athletes.
• Lauren discussed the need for a more equal approach to leave and child-rearing, and how sport can be a leader in social movements.
• Both discussed the idea of a slow return to work after having a baby, and how it can be frustrating but also beneficial.
• They also discussed the need for coach education on female physiology, and for parents to be informed and supportive of their daughters’ changing bodies.
• They discussed the importance of having a broad definition of success that includes more than just performance metrics.

Published January 9, 2023. Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post.

January 8, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

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• Supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro attacked the presidential palace, congress, and supreme court in Brazil, demanding military intervention to remove current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva from office.
• Bolsonaro is a far-right leader who has attacked LGBTQ people, women, and democracy.
• International democratic leaders, including Secretary-General of the U.N. António Guterres and President Emmanuel Macron of France, condemned the rioters in Brazil.
• As of 11:00 tonight, neither House speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) nor Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) had any comment on the events in Brazil.
• By Sunday night, Brazilian police had retaken control of the vandalized buildings and arrested 170 rioters.

Published January 8, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

Three economics happenings of note [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• The FTC has proposed a national ban on noncompetes, which are clauses in a worker’s employment contract that prevent them from working for a competitor for a set period of time.
• Evidence suggests that banning noncompetes can raise wages for low-wage workers by 2-3%, and for workers bound by noncompetes by as much as 14-21%.
• Businesses argue that noncompetes make them more willing to hire and train workers, and that they allow them to invest more in creating new technologies.
• Opponents argue that noncompetes quash innovation by preventing new companies from entering an industry.
• The debate is ultimately about the choice between a dynamic, competitive economy and one dominated by big, secure companies.
• Park et al. (2023) argue that papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time, with a measure of disruptiveness (CD index) declining across a variety of fields.
• Alternative explanations for the decline include: low-hanging fruit hypothesis, burden of knowledge hypothesis, and cultural/institutional changes in academia.
• Pierre Azoulay’s analysis of life sciences papers suggests that the decline in disruptiveness may have halted in the 80s.
• Olivier Blanchard’s thread asserts that inflation is the outcome of a distributional conflict between firms, workers, and taxpayers.
• Paul Krugman’s “Football Game Theory of Inflation” likens the process to a football game in which everyone tries to stand up to see over everyone else.
• Ivan Werning’s model suggests that a wage-price spiral can occur even with falling real wages.
• Ricardo Reis argues that labor may not be the most important variable cost for companies, and thus wage demands may not be driving inflation.

Published January 7, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

January 7, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

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• Kevin McCarthy of California was elected speaker of the House of Representatives after 15 ballots, the most since 1860.
• McCarthy made concessions to extremist Republicans to win their votes, weakening his position as speaker.
• In his acceptance speech, McCarthy promised a right-wing wish list of investigations, deregulation, and attacks on immigration.
• He thanked President Trump for his influence and support.
• Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries gave a barn-burning speech, praising Nancy Pelosi and calling for Democrats to continue the fight for lower costs, better paying jobs, safer communities, democracy, and economic opportunity for all.
• Republicans in Ohio and South Carolina have passed laws to restrict voting rights.

Published January 7, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

Mexican Cartels: The Fallout of El Chapo [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • Ovidio Guzman, son of former cartel head El Chapo, was arrested in Mexico and taken to Mexico City ahead of the Biden administration’s presidential visit.
  • El Chapo’s cartel was the most powerful organized crime group in the world, due to its light-handed approach and focus on not preying upon the locals.
  • After El Chapo’s arrest, the cartel fractured into several local warlords, led by El Mayo, who is the most powerful but does not control the majority of the cartel.
  • El Chapo’s three sons, one of which is Video Guzman, have risen to power and are engaged in a power struggle.
  • The Mexican government has attempted to apprehend Ovidio Guzman before, but the operation was unsuccessful and sparked a riot. This time, they were successful and took him to Mexico City.
  • The speculation is that the Mexican government is attempting to make a peace offering to the Biden administration.
  • The most concerning part of the drug war is the hyper violent Jalisco New Generation cartel, which is challenging the other cartels for control of the transfer plazas on the border.
  • If they succeed, it could change the political discussion within the US and between Washington and Mexico City almost overnight.

You can watch the full Mexican Cartels: The Fallout of El Chapo on YouTube – Published January 7, 2023

 

January 6, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

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• Two years ago, a mob of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the 2020 election, believing Democrats had stolen it.
• This attack was the result of decades of rhetoric from the Republican Party, which had become increasingly hostile to the liberal consensus of the New Deal and civil rights laws.
• Republicans have since manipulated the electoral system and gerrymandered districts to gain control of the House of Representatives, where they are now threatening to take the government into default in order to dismantle the liberal consensus.
• On this day, President Biden awarded the Presidential Citizens Medal to fifteen people who defended democracy on January 6, 2021, reminding the audience of FDR’s 1941 “Four Freedoms” speech.

Published January 6, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

TGIF: Congress Is Back. Let the Insanity Begin. [Nellie Bowles, The Free Press]

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• Kevin McCarthy is struggling to get enough votes to become the next House Speaker, as the right flank of the party is resistant to him.
• Amazon is laying off 18,000 employees due to the current economic stagflation.
• Cardi B is calling out the high prices of groceries due to the Biden administration’s Covid stimulus.
• The Twitter Files continue to show how the U.S. government sought to silence its critics.
• Colorado is busing migrants to New York City, and New Jersey is requiring K-12 students to undergo “media literacy” training.
• Kay LeClaire, a major leader in the Indigenous movement, is a white girl with a spray tan pretending to be Native American.
• The College of Psychologists of Ontario is trying to take Jordan Peterson’s psychology license.
• California is passing a law that could lead to doctors losing their license for “dissemination of misinformation or disinformation related to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.”
• Vaccine skeptics are speculating that Damar Hamlin’s injury was caused by the vaccine, despite no evidence.
• Damar Hamlin is stable and making a recovery.
• Thousands of people have filed sexual abuse suits in California before the statute of limitations window closed.
• Louisiana has passed a law requiring proof of age to watch porn online.
• Fashion choices of the 118th Congress were discussed.
• ADHD prescriptions are out of control and screens are the disease.
• The Food Compass rating system is flawed and suggests unhealthy foods are healthier than healthy ones.
• A young Jihadi from Maine attacked three police officers in New York City.
• Zadie Smith’s essay discussed the differences between Gen X and Millennial sensibilities.

Published January 6, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read Nellie Bowles’s original post.

Will Jordan Peterson Lose His License for Wrongthink? [Neeraja Deshpande, The Free Press]

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• Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson has been threatened with the revocation of his license to practice psychology by the College of Psychologists of Ontario for making controversial comments on Twitter and a podcast.
• The College is demanding that Peterson go through a re-education program and sign a statement admitting he “lacked professionalism” in his public statements.
• The College’s ultimatum is part of a larger trend of institutions of higher learning punishing dissenters and pathologizing political disagreement.
• The College’s actions have revealed its prioritization of punishing wrongthink over facilitating open discourse.

Published January 6, 2023. Visit The Free Press to read the original post.

The NFL’s moral collapse [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

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• Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered a severe injury during a Monday night game against the Cincinnati Bengals, prompting an hour-long suspension of the game.
• NFL football is the most dangerous of major sports, with a higher rate of injuries and concussions than other leagues.
• Players often suffer long-term consequences of injuries, such as chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), after they retire.
• NFL players do not have guaranteed contracts, which incentivizes them to play injured and puts them at greater risk.
• The NFL has made over 50 rule changes to reduce the risk of injuries, but a 2020 study found that these changes have been too weak to make the game safer.

Published January 4, 2023. Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post.

Why Paul Ehrlich got everything wrong [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Paul Ehrlich’s predictions in The Population Bomb were spectacularly wrong, but it is important to recognize that his warnings about environmental catastrophes should still be taken seriously.
• Ehrlich’s predictions were wrong due to countermeasures and adaptations that acted as a dampening force, slowing down the trend lines before catastrophe hits.
• These countermeasures and adaptations included the Green Revolution, lower fertility rates, and human ingenuity.
• The lesson from Ehrlich’s mistakes is that stabilization of global food supply was achieved via technological innovations by concerned scientists, which were then adopted by concerned governments.
• Paul Ehrlich’s predictions of population and resource scarcity in the late 1960s and 1970s have been echoed by degrowth advocates in the late 2010s and 2020s.
• Degrowth advocates often rely on aggregate measures of resource use and trend extrapolation, which are flawed metrics.
• Environmental catastrophes are a real possibility, and it would be dangerous to ignore the people warning about them.
• Alarmism about environmental catastrophes may be a useful counterweight to human callousness towards non-human life, and may help to keep habitat destruction in the public consciousness.

Published January 5, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

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