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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

Happy New Year! Republicans have changed a lot since 2008 [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

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• This article looks at the transformation of Republican Party politics since 2008, focusing on the differences between the platforms of Mitt Romney and John McCain in 2008 and Donald Trump in 2020.
• It examines how Romney moved to the right on climate and immigration, while Trump moved to the left on entitlements and was relatively moderate on LGBT issues.
• It also looks at the emergence of a new agenda focused on the war on “wokeness”, spearheaded by Christopher Rufo, and how this has become a major focus of Republican politics.
• Finally, it argues that if Republicans sweep into power with large majorities, they will likely pursue a right-wing agenda focused on cutting taxes, slashing spending, and banning abortion.

Published January 2, 2023. Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post.

January 2, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

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• The 118th Congress is gathering in Washington and GOP minority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is struggling to get the votes to become speaker.
• McCarthy has made several concessions to far-right House members, but they still won’t back him.
• Republican representative-elect George Santos of New York is facing fraud charges and his vote for speaker is crucial.
• The Democratic-controlled Senate is confirming judges and rebalancing the Supreme Court, while the Biden administration will be traveling around the country to highlight the laws passed in the last two years.
• The January 6th committee’s transcripts revealed an email from rally organizer Katrina Pierson showing that Trump’s invitation to supporters to march on the Capitol was part of the plan, and Hope Hicks and Ivanka Trump’s chief of staff Julie Radford exchanged horrified texts after the riot.

Published January 2, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

2023: Cheers to a New Year of Disruption [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

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  • The world has undergone globalization, urbanization and demographic changes since 1945.
  • 30 years ago, the Cold War ended and countries previously excluded from the globalized system joined in, leading to increased growth.
  • Now, the majority of Baby Boomers are aging into mass retirement, leading to a decrease in markets, capital and working adults.
(more…)

Inequality might be going down now [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Thomas Piketty’s 2013 book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, argued that capitalism would naturally lead to greater and greater inequality unless extraordinary forces intervened.
• This year, stocks crashed, disproportionately affecting the wealthy, and wealth inequality has plateaued or declined since Piketty’s book was published.
• Wage inequality has also plateaued or declined, with the bottom 10% of earners seeing real wage gains, and job switching increasing since the pandemic.
• Total income inequality has plateaued, but government benefits have boosted the incomes of the poor relative to others.
• The drops in inequality are modest, and it is unclear why they are happening, but it suggests that predictions of an imminent crisis of capitalism were overdone.

Published January 1, 2023. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

January 1, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

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• On January 1, 2023, the out-of-pocket cost of insulin for Medicare recipients will be capped at $35 a month.
• Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts issued the 2022 Year-End Report on the Federal Judiciary, which makes no mention of the leak of the Dobbs decision, popular demands for justices to have a code of ethics or Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife Ginni’s involvement in attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was inaugurated as the new president of Brazil today, replacing Jair Bolsonaro. A 33-year-old garbage collector, Aline Sousa, presented the sash to Lula as a symbol of the peaceful transfer of power.

Published January 1, 2023. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

Our Promise to You in 2023 [Bari Weiss, The Free Press]

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• The Free Press is a media company built on the ideals of honest, independent journalism.
• It is supported by a coalition of readers from all over the world and of all political persuasions.
• The Free Press has broken news and driven the conversation with investigative stories and provocative commentary.
• It has been cited in The Economist, The New York Times, Canadian Parliament, Reuters, Fox News, and NPR.
• Paid subscribers are encouraged to join for $8 a month to support the work of The Free Press.

Published December 31, 2022. Visit The Free Press to read Bari Weiss’s original post.

The third magic [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

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• Humans have achieved greater living standards than other animals due to two great meta-innovations: history and science.
• History is about recording knowledge in language, while science is about discovering generally applicable principles about how the world works.
• Science is often done in a lab, but can also be done by observing nature. Mathematics is a powerful tool for expressing laws of the universe.
• Despite the success of science, some complex phenomena have so far defied the approach of discovering si1mple, generalizable laws, leading to the idea that some domains of human knowledge may never be described by such principles.
• Leo Breiman’s essay “Statistical Modeling: The Two Cultures” demonstrated that algorithmic models (early machine learning techniques) were yielding better predictions than data models, even though the former were far less easy to interpret.
• Alon Halevy, Peter Norvig, and Fernando Pereira argued that in the cases of natural language processing and machine translation, applying large amounts of data was effective even in the absence of simple generalizable laws.
• AI may always be powerful yet ineffable, performing frequent wonders, but prone to failure at fundamentally unpredictable times.
• Natural experiments are a different tool than science and history, as they allow us to verify causal links.
• Khachiyan et al. used deep neural nets to look at daytime satellite imagery, in order to predict future economic growth at the hyper-local level, with astonishing accuracy.
• AI may revolutionize fields of endeavor where traditional science has run into diminishing returns, leading to a leap in human power and flourishing.

Published December 31, 2022. Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post.

Clarifying Some Common First Amendment Terminology [Ken White, The Popehat Report]

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  • When First Amendment experts say “First Amendment exception,” they’re generally referring to the limited, historical set of exceptions to the First Amendment that allow the government to limit speech based on its content.
  • The exceptions aren’t exceptions to the proposition “the government can’t do anything to restrict anything that might be understood as speech,” because that’s not the rule.
  • When we say “this is a First Amendment issue” or “the First Amendment applies to this dispute,” we’re saying “there’s a set of law based on the First Amendment that you have to apply to this dispute to resolve it.”
  • This doesn’t mean “the person speaking automatically wins” any more than “you have a right to trial by jury if you’re charged with a crime” means that you have a right to be found not guilty.
  • We have to apply the relevant First Amendment test to determine if the speech falls into the incitement exception to the First Amendment.

Published December 30, 2022

Visit The Popehat Report to read Ken White’s original post

TGIF: One Last Time for 2022 [Nellie Bowles, The Free Press]

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  • The Biden administration ended the year flush, signing a $1.7 trillion spending bill, including $50 billion in aid to Ukraine and half a million in funding toward artificial intelligence that will detect microaggressions online.
  • The border crisis continues to escalate, with November seeing the highest number of border crossings yet.
  • Stacey Abrams raised $100 million through her PAC this most recent time, yet she owes vendors at least $1 million.
  • George Santos, a New York Republican congressman-elect, admitted to “embellishing” almost all of his compelling story.
  • America’s graduate schools are hellbent on making thousands of unemployed people fated to wander the country reminding us that they have PhDs.
  • The faculty of MIT have signed a pledge asserting that they value free expression and debate.
  • Stanford University has released a list of verboten words so crazed, so long, so thorough, that it would truly take a four-year $250,000 degree to learn it.
  • Stanford president is under investigation for faking his past research and one of his professors has had to pay more than $29 million for
  • Our latest Twitter Files: Internal documents at Twitter showed the company rigged the public debate about Covid.
  • Meanwhile at our friend TikTok: Nice, quirky TikTok, which would never do anything bad, has been tracking Forbes reporters.
  • The fall of Roe has created nightmare scenarios.
  • McConnell negs Trump: In another sign that Republicans are really ready to ditch Trump, Mitch McConnell was brutal on the former president in a recent interview with NBC News.
  • A Roomba’s-eye-view on the toilet: New smart Roombas, exploring your house and documenting its various nooks and crannies as it cleans, can share those images back to Roomba headquarters.
  • The New York Times declares Louisa May Alcott a man.
  • Remember Wi Spa? End of the year, end of a mystery.
  • Life expectancy in the U.S. keeps falling.
  • Fun startup going rogue to blot out the sun.
  • The end of 2022 we deserve: Because we live in a Clown World, it is only right that the end of this year saw a showdown between Andrew Tate.

Published December 30, 2022.

Visit The Free Press to read Nellie Bowles’s original post.

December 30, 2022 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters From An American]

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• In 2022, the U.S. and its allies successfully pressured Russia to prevent an invasion of Ukraine and defended the country with money, armaments, and humanitarian aid.
• At home, the Biden administration and Congress passed major legislation that included the American Rescue Plan, the bipartisan infrastructure law, the PACT Act, the CHIPs and Science Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, the Respect for Marriage Act, the Violence Against Women Act, and the most significant gun safety legislation in nearly 30 years.
• The Supreme Court handed down the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision, overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that recognized reproductive healthcare as a constitutional right.
• The January 6th committee’s public hearings exposed the deliberate plan to overthrow our democracy, and in the midterm elections, Republicans only gained control of the House by four seats and the Democrats actually picked up one seat in the Senate.
• Despite the growth of authoritarianism, global post-lockdown inflation, and gerrymandering, the U.S. ended the year with a sense of progress and hope.

Published December 30, 2022. Visit Letters from An American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post.

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