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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

John Fetterman and the Performance of Wellness [Jennifer Senior, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 18, 2023
269 views
J
  • Senator John Fetterman announced he was undergoing treatment for depression, signaling a shift away from the days of secrets and shaming when it comes to mental health.
  • Fetterman’s office made a point of noting Fetterman’s struggle with depression even before his stroke. This signals a shift away from using physical illness to explain mental health.
  • As a politician, Fetterman was constantly performing a certain role in a very public and open environment, making it difficult for him to express his backstage self.
  • Fetterman’s experience brings to light the difficulty of managing a demanding job while struggling with physical and mental health issues.
  • The outcome of Fetterman’s story may serve as a test for how far we’ve come as a nation in understanding and responding to mental and physical health.

Published February 17, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Jennifer Senior’s original post John Fetterman and the Performance of Wellness

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Why I Went to Iran [Mary Louise Kelly, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Free Press]
February 18, 2023
231 views
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  • Visas for American journalists to visit Iran are rare and typically granted for just a few days – This is key because it highlights the difficulty and rarity of journalists being able to visit Iran and report from within the country, which makes the trip even more valuable.
  • Talk to everyone we could find. Ask what’s on their mind – This is key because it emphasizes the importance of getting unbiased, accurate information from a variety of people in order to gain insight into the reality of the situation.
  • Many people were visibly frightened to talk with us – This is key because it reveals the truth that the Iranian government does not allow free speech and the reality of the climate of fear in the country.
  • Rampant inflation – This is key because it shows the economic suffering of the people, which is a major factor in the protests that have been taking place.
  • The government crackdown was swift and ferocious – This is key because it illustrates the severity and brutality of the Iranian regime’s response to the protests.
  • People still willing to speak out – This is key because it shows that despite the oppressive environment, people are still willing to risk their safety in order to tell their story and be heard.

Published February 17, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Mary Louise Kelly’s original post Why I Went to Iran

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February 16, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By William McClain
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
February 17, 2023
251 views
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  • Dominion Voting Systems is suing Fox News Corporation for defamation after the network’s personalities claimed that the company’s voting machines had corrupted the final tallies in the 2020 election.
  • The filing suggests that FNC personalities didn’t believe what they were telling their viewers, and made those groundless accusations because they worried their viewers were abandoning them to go to channels that told them what they wanted to hear: that Trump had won the election.
  • FNC went to “war footing” to “protect the brand” when one of its reporters accurately fact-checked a Trump tweet, and the filing claims that not a single witness from FNC testified they believed any of the allegations they were making about Dominion.
  • The report of the special purpose grand jury investigating possible criminal interference in the 2020 election in Georgia was released today, and it found “by a unanimous vote that no widespread fraud took place in the Georgia 2020 presidential election.”
  • A bipartisan group of 28 former officials who were part of the Church Committee wrote an open letter to Representative Jim Jordan (R-OH) today, reminding him that while the chair of the committee had been a Democrat, its work had been carefully bipartisan, and it protected ongoing intelligence and law enforcement operations.
  • They warned Jordan that if he wanted to claim the mantle of that committee, he would need to move forward with the “same spirit of cooperation and bipartisanship.”

Published February 17, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post February 16, 2023

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Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By William McClain
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
February 17, 2023
290 views
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  • Is Sperm Count Declining? – People say it is, and Levine et al 2017 and 2022 find average sperm count has declined from 99 million sperm/ml to 47 million.
  • Is Declining Sperm Count Really “Imperiling The Future Of The Human Race”? – Swan’s point is that if sperm counts get too low, presumably it will be hard to have babies. A graph shows fertility rate plateaus around 30 million sperm, and average ejaculation is 3ml, so total sperm count is 3x sperm/ml. If Levine’s linear model is correct, we have 10-20 years before median reaches plateau’s edge, and 10 years after that before it reaches zero.
  • How Long Has This Been Going On? – The first recorded claim was Nelson & Bunge, 1974, and a few small studies suggest it may have started declining between 1951 and 1974.
  • How Sure Are We That This Is Even Real? – Not too sure. Levine et al do good statistics, but the data is very noisy and there are many confounders (different types of people giving sperm samples, changes in ejaculation frequency, aging population, etc). Auger et al find six studies that are well done and five of them show declining sperm counts. Fisch and the Harvard Gender Science Laboratory paper point out the difficulty in collecting sperm samples and measuring sperm quality and make a few other points, but Auger’s is the best source.
  • Did The Hypothesis Start By Mistake? – It seems like basically every person who proposed this hypothesis before Levine et al was mistaken, and had no right to conclude this from their small samples. Carlsen et al, the first to make it to the mainstream, should have found an increase, not a decrease, in sperm concentration.
  • Where Is The Decline Most Pronounced? – Levine et al don’t compare developed vs. developing world counts, but unofficially it looks like sperm count is declining faster in the developed than in the developing world.
  • Argued about it for the first forty years or so was working off of useless data, but by coincidence they happened to be right anyway – This is key to understanding the debate about declining sperm counts, as it shows how unreliable the data is.
  • Where Is The Decline Most Pronounced? – Studies have found that the decline is pronounced in different regions around the world, and some countries are more affected than others.
  • If Sperm Count Is Declining, What Could Be Causing This? – Possible causes of declining sperm count include plastics, pesticides, sunlight and circadian rhythm, diet and obesity, and porn.
  • What About Animals? – Studies of farm animals bred through artificial insemination show inconsistent results of declining sperm count.
  • Conclusions And Predictions – It is difficult to predict the future of sperm count, but some predictions include a consensus that sperm count is declining in 20 years, and that the most important factor is plastics or pesticides.

Published February 17, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know

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China must stop its coal industry [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By William McClain
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
February 17, 2023
238 views
C
  • China is the world’s chief emitter of carbon dioxide, dwarfing the U.S.
  • China is rapidly transitioning to renewables, building more solar in one year than all the solar installed in the U.S.
  • China is still the world’s coal superpower and coal consumption is expected to continue increasing for at least 3 years
  • The coal industry is politically very powerful in China, with coal companies, provincial governments, and industry workers all relying on it for income and jobs
  • The U.S. may be able to help China transition away from coal by making solar cheaper, cutting a deal to reduce oil use, or by imposing carbon tariffs
  • Leaving coal in the ground provides a form of insurance against future collapses of civilization

Published February 17, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post China must stop its coal industry

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The Truth About Aliens Is Still Out There [John Hendrickson, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 17, 2023
256 views
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  • Believers in UFOs have gotten some tantalizing clues over the past few years. These clues include videos of zig-zagging, Tic Tac–like vessels and a New Yorker feature that explore the possibility of aliens existing.
  • UFO sightings are getting more frequent. This has sparked a lot of national conversation that has even led to a presidential address on the matter.
  • The government’s takedown of multiple aerial objects over North America recently has made people question whether they were aliens.
  • The president’s address did not explain the truth about UFOs. Instead, he talked about government transparency and the possibility that the objects were just surveillance vehicles.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read John Hendrickson’s original post The Truth About Aliens Is Still Out There

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Behind the Scenes with React.js: the Documentary [Gergely Orosz, The Pragmatic Engineer]

By William McClain
In Gergely Orosz [The Pragmatic Engineer]
February 17, 2023
236 views
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  • A brief history of React – React is the most popular web framework in use today. It was created by Jordan Walke, a software engineer at Facebook, and open sourced in 2013 at JSConf US. In the issue The State of Frontend 2022, React is noted as having 76% of respondents using and liking React the past year. Stack Overflow Trends also shows React having more questions than other similar frameworks since 2018.
  • The idea of making the documentary – The documentary was funded by Honeypot, a developer-focused job platform. The idea was proposed by filmmaker Ida Lærke Bechtle, with the hope of inspiring people and remembering Honeypot when looking for new job opportunities. Ida did research on React, contacted the first React core team members, and interviewed them to create the story.
  • Behind the scenes of the making of React.js: the Documentary – Ida traveled to Dublin, London, San Diego, San Francisco, Boston, and NYC to interview React team members, with help from Christopher Chedeau to convince the others. At Meta, they had a “chaperone” but otherwise were not restricted in what they could ask or film.
  • Premiere and reception – The documentary premiered in Amsterdam to an audience at the JSWorld conference. Afterward, there were a few more premieres in Berlin, Barcelona, and Vienna. The movie quickly passed 250,000 views on YouTube within its first week of release, with mostly positive feedback. Ida learned that people will watch longer movies on YouTube, as long as the topic is on point and the storytelling is good.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit The Pragmatic Engineer to read Gergely Orosz’s original post Behind the Scenes with React.js: the Documentary

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The Enduring Mystery of Friends [Freddie deBoer, Freddie deBoer’s Substack]

By William McClain
In Freddie deBoer
February 17, 2023
294 views
T
  • Friends is a show set in the mid-90s with a bunch of twenty-somethings navigating their lives and relationships and hanging out in their favorite coffee shop, set in New York City.
  • The show does not reflect any definable generational sensibility, and the characters have seemingly no interest in the culture of the moment.
  • The clothing the characters wear is garish and make no particular fashion statement, and their coffee shop is an ugly and haphazard place.
  • The show is apolitical and exists outside of culture, making it a cultural object that is resistant to style, fashion and generational position.
  • Seinfeld is another NBC Thursday night show that takes advantage of New York and captures more of the city’s character, but it is too spiky and mannered to be as lacking in personality as Friends.
  • The success of Friends is due to its refusal to reflect on a specific cultural or generational experience, making a space for the widest possible audience.
  • The mystery of Friends’ success lies in its broad and repetitive humor and its endlessly recycled plotlines, making it comforting for viewers, like its classic, awful theme song.
  • My So-Called Life is a delicate portrayal of quintessentially late-Gen Xer characters, operating in a world that’s unmistakably of its era, reflecting the fashions and music and cultural id of its own time.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit Freddie deBoer’s Substack to read Freddie deBoer’s original post The Enduring Mystery of Friends

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No-Landing and the Anti-gravity Economy [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By William McClain
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
February 17, 2023
273 views
N
  • Retail Sales increased the most in TWO years in January, driven by food services and dining, motor vehicles and people spending in general.
  • For inflation, The CPI print came in kind of hot with core services and goods continuing to rise, mostly driven by shelter costs.
  • The labor market is still strong, with people looking for cars and homes again.
  • The worry now is that there is a new normal of inflation, that it will just hang out around 4-5%.
  • The economy is still moving and grooving, but dancing to the wrong song.
  • The market believes that the Fed will continue its hiking journey, but financial conditions have loosened.
  • People are still spending money on vacations, despite vacation inflation.
  • People are so sick of Things, they don’t care anymore, a phenomena known as the yoloconomy.
  • The market wants to keep dancing, but the Fed is moving towards them quickly, slowly wagging their finger in the no-no motion.
  • The Fed rate hikes have not moved through the economy yet, due to the design of the 30Y fixed-rate mortgage.
  • People are spending more money because of credit card debt and continued dip into savings.
  • People are exhausted and want to consume passively.
  • The economy is booming despite the Fed’s pressure because people are prioritizing profit over people.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post No-Landing and the Anti-gravity Economy

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The Contradictions of Ron DeSantis [Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic]

By William McClain
In [The Atlantic]
February 17, 2023
283 views
T
  • Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida hasn’t officially decided whether he’ll seek the 2024 GOP presidential nomination – But already the contradictions are sharpening between his prospective general-election strengths and his emerging strategy to win the Republican primaries.
  • DeSantis is pursuing an aggressive strategy of keeping Florida businesses and schools open during the pandemic – This strategy has enabled him to win about three-fifths of Florida’s college-educated white voters in a year when this demographic provided crucial support to Democrats in many other states.
  • DeSantis has ignited a series of culture-war firefights – Including censoring how schoolteachers talk about race, gender, and sexual orientation, and a potential ban on abortion after six weeks.
  • DeSantis’ agenda has found a receptive audience in Republican-controlled states – PEN is tracking copycat bills in many of the other 21 states where Republicans hold unified control of the state legislature and the governorship.
  • DeSantis’ agenda may be less appealing than the sum of its parts – Many polls show that a majority of voters worry less that kids are being taught values their parents don’t like than that culture-war fights are diverting schools from their real mission of educating students.
  • The whole of DeSantis’ agenda may be less appealing than the sum of its parts – Democrats see DeSantis embracing ideas that will cast him as a threat to the values held by the coalition that turned out in big numbers to resist the Trump-era GOP in each of the past three national elections.

Published February 16, 2023
Visit The Atlantic to read Ronald Brownstein’s original post The Contradictions of Ron DeSantis

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