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Microsoft Earnings, Azure’s Slowdown, Office Strikes Back [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

M

• Microsoft reported its slowest sales growth in more than six years last quarter, with revenue expanding 2% to $52.7 billion and net income falling 12% to $16.4 billion.
• Intelligent Cloud business, which includes Azure cloud-computing business, grew 18% to $21.51 billion, with Azure growing 31%.
• Microsoft’s commentary on the PC market was encouraging, with Windows OEM revenue expected to decline in the mid to high 30s, in line with the PC market, and usage intensity of Windows continuing to be higher than pre-pandemic with time spent per PC up nearly 10%.
• Azure growth moderated, particularly in December, and Microsoft expects Q3 growth to decelerate roughly 4 to 5 points in constant currency.
• Office 365 Commercial is seeing slowing seat growth, but is being offset by upselling current customers to the highest per-seat pricing plan (E5). E5 offers integrated and automated security, advanced compliance capabilities, audio conferencing and calling capabilities, and Power BI capabilities.

Published January 31, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Microsoft Earnings, Azure’s Slowdown, Office Strikes Back

Intel Earnings, Intel’s Plunging Margin, The Dividend Question [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

I

• Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is leading the company through a multi-year turnaround, attempting to catch up to TSMC in terms of process and create a customer service organization from scratch.
• Intel’s current financial woes are the result of years of decisions and investments not made, leading to a mismatch between decisions and consequences.
• Intel is still paying a dividend despite its need for cash, likely due to its long history of dividend payments and the need to maintain investor support.
• Intel’s adjusted free cash flow was negative $4 billion, and the company is forecasting a gross margin of 34% for the next quarter.
• Intel is taking an especially large hit from losing market share to rivals, and is eliminating jobs and slowing spending on new plants in an effort to save as much as $10 billion.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Intel Earnings, Intel’s Plunging Margin, The Dividend Question

Can AI Help Us Be Better People? [Brian Gallagher, Nautilus]

C

• Jon Rueda and Bianca Rodriguez have published a paper arguing that AI assistants could help us improve our morality.
• AI models can make us more aware of our psychological limitations when making decisions, and provide relevant factual information.
• The Socratic assistant, or SocrAI, is based on the idea that through dialogue we can advance our knowledge and improve our moral judgements.
• AI-based voice assistants have not been developed commercially yet, but there is interest in the idea.
• The Socratic assistant would not be trained on Socrates’ words, but would try to emulate his Socratic method.
• There are concerns about data protection and the potential to shape autonomy and agency, as well as deskilling moral abilities.
• AI could help us be more like an ideal observer, but could also reproduce and amplify human biases.

Published January 30, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Brian Gallagher’s original post Can AI Help Us Be Better People?

The Iceberg Cowboys Who Wrangle the Purest Water on Earth [Matthew Birkhold, Nautilus]

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• Iceberg Alley is a cold and gray area off the coast of St. John’s, Canada, which is known for its lack of sunshine.
• Glaciers in Greenland calve icebergs into the Labrador Sea, which then drift southward in an annual migration.
• Icebergs can contain ancient artifacts, chemicals, and air bubbles from the past, and are also incredibly pure.
• Ed Kean, a fifth-generation fisherman, harvests icebergs for their water, which is said to taste like water should.
• The process of harvesting involves shooting the icebergs, using poles and hooks to move them, and then winching them onto the boat.
• Sightseeing for icebergs is like being on safari, and tourists can take a boat tour to see them.
• The article discusses the process of harvesting icebergs in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador.
• The process is labor-intensive and difficult, requiring the use of a crane, axes, and shovels.
• The author also goes on a sightseeing tour to view icebergs, and learns about the different types of icebergs from glaciologists.
• The article ends with the author reflecting on the success of Ed Kean, the “Captain Ahab of the Ice”, and his ability to “vanquish” icebergs.
• The author also mentions the local tradition of “screeching-in”, which involves reciting a vow, taking a shot of rum, and kissing a cod.
• Lastly, the author mentions the local beer, Iceberg, which is made with 20,000-year-old iceberg water.

Published January 27, 2023
Visit Nautilus to read Matthew Birkhold’s original post The Iceberg Cowboys Who Wrangle the Purest Water on Earth

DOJ Sues Google, Google’s Advertising Aggregation, No Duty to Deal [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

D

• The DOJ has filed a lawsuit against Google, alleging that the company has abused its role as one of the largest brokers, suppliers, and online auctioneers of ads placed on websites and mobile applications.
• The lawsuit seeks to unwind Google’s “anticompetitive acquisitions” and calls for the divestiture of its ad exchange.
• Google has used its market power to force more publishers and advertisers to use its products while disrupting their ability to use competing products effectively.
• Google’s power in digital advertising stems from a series of acquisitions, beginning with the company’s $3.1 billion purchase of DoubleClick in 2008.
• Google has capitalized on its well-known search engine to start a profitable search advertising business, Google Ads (formerly AdWords).
• Google Ads’ unique and sizeable advertiser demand is what makes Google’s ad exchange unavoidable for most website publishers.
• A 2014 Google experiment found that more than half of the impressions that publishers offered on its ad exchange would go unsold without the critical Google Ads’ demand.
• Google has effectively locked out meaningful competition in the digital advertising industry by leveraging its control of the “operating system” of advertising.
• Google has Aggregated the long tail of advertisers, and that long tail is so large that no publisher can do without them.
• Google has then levered access to those advertisers into control of the “operating system” of advertising, and with that control systemically favored itself.
• Google shifted money from advertisers to publishers by submitting two bids for ad slots from Google Ads, which systematically increased the winning price for an ad.
• Google’s defense is the “no duty to deal” argument, which is based on the Supreme Court case Verizon v. Trinko.
• The most likely outcome is that this case highlights exactly where current law is deficient in limiting big tech companies.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post DOJ Sues Google, Google’s Advertising Aggregation, No Duty to Deal

Google’s most serious antitrust challenge to date [Casey Newton, Platformer]

G

• The US Justice Department and 8 states have filed a major antitrust case against Google, accusing the company of maintaining an illegal monopoly over the online ad business.
• The lawsuit calls for Google to divest its Google Ad Manager suite, including both its publisher ad server and ad exchange.
• Google has faced a steady drumbeat of regulators accusing it of antitrust violations since 2017, when the European Commission fined the company a then-record $2.73 billion.
• Google’s estimated 26.5 percent share of the US digital ad market is down more than 10 percent from its peak in 2015, due to the growth of Meta and Amazon.
• The lawsuit claims that Google’s fees on its ad exchanges allow it to keep 30 cents out of every dollar spent on them, resulting in overcharges of $100 million for federal agencies.
• The case is rooted in real harms and is in line with traditional thinking about the point of antitrust law, which is to protect consumers.

Published January 25, 2023
Visit Platformer to read Casey Newton’s original post Google’s most serious antitrust challenge to date

Tech Layoffs, Big Tech’s Hiring Rates, Microsoft’s VR Layoffs [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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• Tech layoffs are popularly thought to be due to over-hiring during the pandemic, but there is little evidence that tech companies over-hired based on past rates.
• Apple has been better positioned than many rivals to date due to slower hiring during the pandemic and a focus on hardware products.
• Amazon has seen the most dramatic increase in employee numbers over the last decade due to the build-out of its owned-and-operated logistics network.
• Microsoft’s recent layoffs are not an indication that the company is abandoning its metaverse strategy, but rather a shift away from hardware and towards being available on all platforms.

Published January 24, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Tech Layoffs, Big Tech’s Hiring Rates, Microsoft’s VR Layoffs

Netflix’s New Chapter [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

N

• Netflix was founded by Marc Randolph and funded by Reed Hastings, who eventually took over as CEO.
• In 2004, Blockbuster launched Blockbuster Online, which caused Netflix’s stock to plunge.
• Netflix waited out Blockbuster, knowing that the company was carrying $1 billion in debt and would eventually have to raise prices.
• Blockbuster responded by cutting prices and launching Total Access, which was a great bargain for customers.
• Netflix eventually offered to buy Blockbuster Online, but the offer was declined.
• In recent years, Netflix has faced competition from other streaming services, which has caused revenue growth to slow.
• Netflix believes that some of its competitors will seek to build sustainable, profitable businesses in streaming, and that its focus as a pure-play streaming business is an advantage.
• Netflix is now profitable and generating positive free cash flow, while its competitors are struggling to make money in streaming.
• Netflix has an advantage as a pure-play streaming business, and its aim is to be the first choice in entertainment.
• Netflix gets less leverage off of its international content than it once hoped for, and its old content holds less value than bulls once assumed.
• Reed Hastings stepped up to the CEO role and shifted the company’s culture away from Randolph’s family of creators to a top-down organization.
• Hastings excelled at execution, but the chief task for Netflix going forward is creativity and producing compelling content at scale.

Published January 23, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Netflix’s New Chapter

Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

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• Twitter is enforcing its long-standing API rules, resulting in the shutdown of 3rd-party apps.
• Twitter revenue is reportedly down 40% year-over-year, and the company’s first interest payment is due at the end of the month.
• Microsoft is adding OpenAI’s viral AI bot ChatGPT to its Azure service, as part of its existing agreement with OpenAI.
• The Financial Times has a two-part series about Apple and China, discussing how Apple has been sending its top product designers and manufacturing design engineers to China, and how Apple is attempting to diversify its supply chain internationally while forging closer ties with mainland Chinese companies.
• India is not yet a viable alternative to China for Apple’s supply chain, as most operations are Final Assembly, Test and Pack (FATP) with components largely flown in from China.
• Taiwanese companies such as Pegatron and Foxconn are moving to India to assemble Apple products, but their suppliers are not.
• There is no existing supply chain in India, so they must import components from China.
• Some Chinese companies have been cleared to operate in India for Apple’s sake, potentially playing the same role as Taiwanese suppliers in China.

Published January 18, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China

 

Extremely Hardcore: Our New York magazine cover story [Casey Newton, Platformer]

E

• Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter has been chaotic, with employees chewed up and spat out along the way. A new cover story at New York magazine attempts to capture the chaos and the fallout that could take big chunks of Musk’s empire down with it.
• Government agencies rely on Twitter to share time-sensitive communications, but their dependence on the platform is becoming more tenuous under Musk’s ownership.
• The UK’s Online Safety Bill is expected to reduce user numbers for the big social platforms, impacting advertising revenue on platforms like TikTok and Instagram.
• Microsoft is likely to receive an antitrust warning from the European Union about its bid for Activision Blizzard.
• Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the company will move quickly to commercialize tools like ChatGPT and incorporate them into the company’s products.
• Apple announced the next-generation 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models, with faster M2 Pro and M2 Max chips, up to 96GB of RAM, an upgraded HDMI 2.1 port with support for an 8K external display, and faster Wi-Fi 6E.
• Bitcoin’s price has risen 26 percent in January, breaking $20,000 again and putting it in on course for its best month since October 2021.
• Scammers are gaming Amazon’s review system to sell fake 16 terabyte portable SSD drives for $100 or less.
• Discord acquired Gas, the app that allows teens to share compliments with each other anonymously.

Published January 18, 2023

Visit Platformer to read Casey Newton’s original post Extremely Hardcore: Our New York magazine cover story

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