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Check out the latest from Astral Codex Ten, Stratechery, Peter Zeihan, Slow Boring, Noahpinion.

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Latest stories

Which Political Victories Cause Backlash? [Scott Alexander, Astral Codex Ten]

By Spencer Chen
In Scott Alexander [Astral Codex Ten]
January 19, 2023
181 views
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• Trump’s beliefs became less popular when he became president, and a similar phenomenon occurred after a major conservative victory (the Supreme Court overturning Roe).
• Americans’ opinions shifted heavily in a pro-choice direction after a long period of stalemate, regardless of political affiliation.
• The author speculates that the effect may be due to a thermostatic effect, where voters want some medium amount of abortion, and if they hear that pro-abortion forces are winning, they say they’re against abortion.
• However, the author found no clear turn against gay marriage in 2015 after the Supreme Court ruling, and no effect on people’s opinion of government-run health care after Obamacare was passed in 2010.
• The author suggests that the public may only backlash against conservative victories, due to liberals controlling more of the media, or because liberalism is “on the right side of history”.
• The author also suggests that it may have to do with how quickly people can find a case of the new law going wrong, or it may be random.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Astral Codex Ten to read Scott Alexander’s original post Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?

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Three books about the technology wars [Noah Smith, Noahpinion]

By Spencer Chen
In Noah Smith [Noahpinion]
January 19, 2023
267 views
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• The U.S. and China are in a technological competition, with government policies aimed at dominating strategic high-tech industries poised to reshape the global economy.
• Three technologies are at the heart of the superpower rivalry: semiconductors, wireless networking, and AI.
• The U.S. is winning the semiconductor wars for now, with all the basic components in the hands of either the U.S. or its allies.
• China has kicked the U.S.’s butt in wireless tech, with Huawei dominating the market through a combination of corporate culture, research, IP theft, and state subsidies.
• In AI, Kai-Fu Lee argues that China will be able to dominate the U.S. through plentiful data, ruthless entrepreneurship, engineering talent, and government support.
• However, four years later, many of Lee’s predictions have proven wrong, and it is difficult to assess which country is actually leading in AI technology.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Noahpinion to read Noah Smith’s original post Three books about the technology wars

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What Even is a “Mild” Recession? [kyla scanlon, Kyla’s Newsletter]

By Spencer Chen
In Kyla Scanlon [Kyla's Newsletter]
January 19, 2023
265 views
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• Everyone is anticipating a recession, but no one knows when or how it will come.
• The consensus is that it will be a mild recession, like a splinter in your finger – something annoying but manageable.
• The Scoville test for the economy is an imprecise measurement based on human subjectivity.
• Data points such as industrial production falling, retail sales falling, and the Empire manufacturing index falling to its lowest level since May 2020 are all signs of a slowdown in the economy.
• The Fed is unlikely to budge despite the caution signs, and the worry is that they will go too hard.
• On the other hand, there are some inflationary pockets such as China reopening, labor market gaps, and bond investors going hog wild for bonds.
• It will be a delicate balance between the Fed, the labor market, consumer health, and housing.
• There is a general level of acceptance that rugged individualism distorts how we think about the economy, and if we can create a world where people are taken care of, it will be net positive for everyone.
• Pepsi CEO believes labor costs will be the source of inflation, rather than commodities
• Labor market is expected to remain tight
• This is due to the recent increase in minimum wage and providing insurance to workers who work 24 hours/week

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Kyla’s Newsletter to read kyla scanlon’s original post What Even is a “Mild” Recession?

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The untimely death of Larry Price Jr. [Judd Legum, Popular Information]

By Spencer Chen
In [Popular Information]
January 19, 2023
188 views
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• Larry Eugene Price Jr., a severely mentally ill man living in poverty in Fort Smith, Arkansas, died in jail after spending a year in pretrial solitary confinement.
• Price was arrested after he began yelling and cursing at officers at the police station, and was charged with “terroristic threatening in the first degree.”
• Price was unable to post bail, and was placed in solitary confinement for 23 hours a day, seven days a week.
• His mental health deteriorated, and he refused to take his prescribed medication. He eventually stopped eating and drinking, and was found unresponsive in a pool of standing water and urine.
• Price’s death is a consequence of systemic issues in the American criminal justice system, including criminalizing poverty and the torture of solitary confinement.
• People with mental illnesses are more likely to be incarcerated than given proper treatment, and many police lack the training to respond to mental health crises.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Popular Information to read Judd Legum’s original post The untimely death of Larry Price Jr.

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America’s Police Exodus [Leighton Woodhouse, The Free Press]

By Spencer Chen
In [The Free Press]
January 19, 2023
255 views
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• Brian Lande, an officer in the Richmond, Calif., police department, had to draw his gun to stop two drunk men from clobbering each other to death with metal rods, and another time to stop a fight between two more drunk men, one of whom was armed with a hatchet.
• The Richmond police department has seen resignations jump by 18 percent and retirements by 45 percent over the previous year, with hiring decreasing by five percent.
• The shift in police officers’ perception of how they’re viewed by the public happened gradually, starting with the first Black Lives Matter protests of 2013, and culminating with the murder of George Floyd in 2020.
• In response to the racial reckoning, some cities set up police review boards with the power to subpoena police records and oversee day-to-day policing, while other states tightened use-of-force standards.
• It became popular for politicians in progressive circles to flaunt their anti-police credentials, and the Richmond City Council cut the police budget, forcing hiring freezes and threatening to slash officers’ salaries by 20 percent.
• Many officers left Richmond for smaller, suburban departments, where they wouldn’t have to fear getting laid off or having their salaries and benefits reduced.
• Brian Lande left Richmond for Kensington, a 15-minute drive away, where he is now Sergeant Lande and his job involves far fewer risks.
• In August 2022, President Biden announced his Safer America Plan in response to rising crime, which includes plans to hire 100,000 more police officers, but this has been met with criticism from the ACLU and the NAACP Legal Defense Fund.
• Peter Moskos, the former Baltimore police officer now teaching at John Jay College, has called for legalizing drugs in response to the drug war’s ineffectiveness and its disproportionate impact on young black men, and is mystified by progressives who insist that the single greatest threat faced by black Americans is systemic racism.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit The Free Press to read Leighton Woodhouse’s original post America’s Police Exodus

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America needs more Class VI wells [Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring]

By Spencer Chen
In [Slow Boring]
January 19, 2023
274 views
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• Public support for action on climate change is broad, but people are disinclined to be personally inconvenienced for the sake of the issue.
• Even if progressive jurisdictions ban new natural gas hookups, people will still be buying new gas appliances 15-20 years from now and those appliances will still be running 30-40 years from now.
• California is planning to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine cars in 2035, but ICE cars will still be on the road in 2050.
• Carbon capture technology exists at a small scale, but it is too expensive to solve the huge problems.
• The Inflation Reduction Act created financial incentives to deploy carbon capture technology, but the EPA needs to move on licensing Class VI wells or creating more state primacy deals.
• Carbon capture has been controversial for years in the environmental community, but it is important to keep in mind that lower-income Democrats were very upset about rising energy costs last year.
• Carbon capture could be used to make natural gas + carbon capture a cost-effective means of generating zero-carbon electricity.
• There is no perfect way to make electricity, and all energy sources have their own costs and benefits.
• Solar and wind power are not necessarily more virtuous than other sources such as carbon capture, nuclear, and geothermal.
• To make renewables work at a large scale, we need to build lots more transmission lines, batteries, and lithium mines.
• Even if we had an all-renewables grid, we would still need solutions for agriculture, industry, aviation, and maritime shipping.
• Carbon capture may be the solution to these problems, but we need to have the infrastructure in place to take advantage of it.ement on nature.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Slow Boring to read Matthew Yglesias’s original post America needs more Class VI wells

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Should Adults Nap? [Emily Oster, ParentData]

By Spencer Chen
In Emily Oster [ParentData]
January 19, 2023
216 views
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• 34% of people surveyed in 2009 reported napping in the past 24 hours, with the highest rate (52%) among those over 80 years old.
• Studies suggest that napping can improve cognitive performance and reduce subjective sleepiness, but may also be linked to cardiovascular disease.
• The optimal nap length is 15 minutes, and the ideal time to nap is mid-afternoon.
• The “coffee nap” combines a cup of caffeinated coffee with a 15-minute nap, and has been shown to reduce driving impairments.
• A study of urban poor in India found that napping improved overall feelings of well-being, but decreased earnings due to lost time.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit ParentData to read Emily Oster’s original post Should Adults Nap?

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January 18, 2023 [Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American]

By Spencer Chen
In Heather Cox Richardson [Letters from an American]
January 19, 2023
193 views
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• The Fair Tax Act, introduced by Representative Earl “Buddy” Carter (R-GA), would replace existing income, payroll, and estate/gift taxes with a flat national sales tax of 30%.
• The bill claims to “promote freedom, fairness, and economic opportunity” but would disproportionately affect those with less money to spend.
• The original Republican Party invented the U.S. income tax and created the precursor to the IRS to collect it, believing that taxes should be “proportionate to [a person’s] ability to pay.”
• The Fair Tax Act is a rejection of the original Republican Party’s principles and would dismantle the federal system that gives Americans “a sense of personal responsibility in the safety and stability of the nation.”
• The bill also provides an option for “qualified” families to get a rebate, but each member of the household must be registered annually with the state and certify that they are all legal residents of the U.S. and not incarcerated.

Published January 19, 2023
Visit Letters from an American to read Heather Cox Richardson’s original post January 18, 2023

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Keeping Nukes on the Table [Peter Zeihan, Zeihan on Geopolitics]

By William McClain
In Peter Zeihan [Zeihan on Geopolitics], Politics
January 19, 2023
291 views
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  • North Korea is keeping nuclear weapons as a possibility for future strategic development.
  • The United States has changed the way its military works and is no longer able to protect Global Commerce.
  • Secondary Powers (e.g. China, Brazil, India) are developing their own security policies.
  • South Korea, Japan, Taiwan are all close to having the capacity to develop nuclear weapons.
  • Other countries (e.g. Ukraine, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Romania, Germany, Saudi Arabia) may also go nuclear in the near future.
  • These countries are going nuclear due to a lack of confidence in their ability to win a conventional conflict.

You can watch the full Keeping Nukes on the Table on YouTube – Published January 19, 2023

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Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China [Ben Thompson, Stratechery]

By Spencer Chen
In Ben Thompson [Stratechery]
January 18, 2023
295 views
T

• Twitter is enforcing its long-standing API rules, resulting in the shutdown of 3rd-party apps.
• Twitter revenue is reportedly down 40% year-over-year, and the company’s first interest payment is due at the end of the month.
• Microsoft is adding OpenAI’s viral AI bot ChatGPT to its Azure service, as part of its existing agreement with OpenAI.
• The Financial Times has a two-part series about Apple and China, discussing how Apple has been sending its top product designers and manufacturing design engineers to China, and how Apple is attempting to diversify its supply chain internationally while forging closer ties with mainland Chinese companies.
• India is not yet a viable alternative to China for Apple’s supply chain, as most operations are Final Assembly, Test and Pack (FATP) with components largely flown in from China.
• Taiwanese companies such as Pegatron and Foxconn are moving to India to assemble Apple products, but their suppliers are not.
• There is no existing supply chain in India, so they must import components from China.
• Some Chinese companies have been cleared to operate in India for Apple’s sake, potentially playing the same role as Taiwanese suppliers in China.

Published January 18, 2023
Visit Stratechery to read Ben Thompson’s original post Twitter Timelines, Azure and OpenAI, Apple and China

 

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